06.《魔球》The Magic Ball

The book to talk about this time is 'Magic Balls'.
Ever seen Brad Pitt in 'Penalty Kicks'? That's the book it's based on. The Magic Ball ushered in a new era of baseball called the era of big data baseball. That's not an exaggeration at all. The book is about how one of the poorest teams in the history of Major League Baseball, the Oakland Athletics, came all the way back. Looking at it today, the method isn't really complicated at all - it's all about using data. It used to be that when you looked at a player, you relied on scouts and used your eyes to see. But the Oakland team, who don't believe in that, don't even look at the person, they just look at the player's usual training data.
You can't underestimate this method. There are real experts among our users who see the power of this method right away. For example, the essence of this transformation is not just a single point of technological breakthrough, but finding the shortcomings of the old method in an industry that has remained unchanged for a long time, and using new technology to turn the battle between large and small companies into a battle between the old and new technological era. You see, it's about turning a confrontation between a single factor into a confrontation between two systems.
 The Oakland Athletics in Magic Ball back in the day relied on this method and won by a landslide.
This brought about three results. First, all teams, following the Oakland Athletics example, started to use big data. Secondly, since teams are using big data, what are scouts doing? As a result, many scouts lost their jobs or were relegated to the margins of their clubs. So who do you think these scouts are going to turn to? The Oakland Athletics and the book, of course. This led to a third result, a lot of people in baseball, denouncing The Magic Ball. They say this approach isn't even worth touting. How can stats replace people? The game is not even remotely human.
In fact, it seems to me that the book isn't pushing for any big data at all; it's actually reminding us not to be cemented by a tool. In the beginning, traditional baseball teams were solidified by the tool of scouting. Today, so many people are superstitious about big data, and how is that not another kind of curing?
There is no one way to design an organisation. There are only trade-offs. Too much stubbornness and obsession is counterproductive. What I understand Cao Hui to be saying is that we should not be cured by a tool. It is more important to keep a flexible body than a tool.
Here, I would also like to mention a person who is probably one of the most respected people in the world for the Magic Ball. His name is Kevin Ma. That name may be a bit strange to you. But in Las Vegas, it's a name that gives the major casinos the most headaches. Why? He was a highly talented maths student who used mathematical calculations to win all the casinos in Las Vegas. He even ended up being blackballed. He also had a nickname, the Gambling Mathematician. So, why does a mathematician push a book that talks about baseball so much? Because baseball and casinos both have one thing in common. That is, they are full of uncertainty, full of unfairness. In baseball, even the strongest team can lose a third of its games. You see, isn't that uncertain? But, in the grand scheme of things, the team with the money, again, will win most of the games. It's similar to a casino where the house takes all the money. So much of the wisdom of baseball applies in a casino as well. You see, the casino can handle it, let alone the everyday.
译文：
这回要说的书是《魔球》。
看过布拉德·皮特演的《点球成金》吗？就是这本书改编的。《魔球》开启了一个新的棒球时代，叫大数据棒球时代。这话一点都不夸张。这本书说的是，美国棒球大联盟历史上最穷的队伍之一，奥克兰运动家队，是怎么一路逆袭的。在今天看，其实方法一点都不复杂，就是一切用数据。以前观察一个球员，靠的是球探，用眼睛看。但是奥克兰队，不信这一套，他们甚至不看人，只看这个球员平时的训练数据。
你可千万别小看这个方法。我们的用户里是真有高手，一眼就看出了这个方法的厉害之处。比如，这个改造的本质，不仅仅是一个单点的技术突破，而是在长期不变的行业，找到老方法的缺点，用新技术，把大小公司之争变成新老技术时代之争。你看，这就是把单个因素之间的对抗，变成了两套系统之间的对抗。
 当年《魔球》中的奥克兰运动家队，就是靠这套方法，赢得一塌糊涂。
这就带来三个结果。第一，所有的球队，都开始效仿奥克兰运动家队，都开始使用大数据。第二，既然球队都用上了大数据，球探干啥去？结果好多球探，因此丢了饭碗，或者被排挤到了俱乐部的边缘。那你说这些球探找谁说理去？肯定是迁怒于奥克兰运动家队，迁怒于这本书啊。这就引发了第三个结果，好多棒球界人士，声讨《魔球》。说这种方式根本不值得吹捧。数据哪能替代人？比赛搞得一点人味儿都没有。
其实，在我看来，这本书根本不是在推崇什么大数据，它其实是在提醒我们，不要被一种工具固化。当初，传统的棒球队是被球探这个工具固化。今天，好多人迷信大数据，这又何尝不是另一种固化呢？
组织的设计没有一定之法。只有取舍权衡。过于固执和执着，反而适得其反。我理解曹辉想说的其实就是，不要被一种工具固化。跟工具比起来，保持一个灵活的身法，这才是更重要的。
在这里，我还想提一个人，这个人大概是全世界，最推崇《魔球》的人之一了。他叫马恺文。这个名字你可能有点陌生。但是在拉斯维加斯，这可是个让各大赌场最头疼的名字。为啥？他是一个数学系的高才生，用数学计算的方式，赢遍了拉斯维加斯的赌场。最后甚至被拉黑了。他还有个外号，叫赌神数学家。那么，一个数学家，为啥这么推崇一本说棒球的书？因为棒球和赌场，都有一个共同点。那就是，充满了不确定，充满了不公平。在棒球领域，再强的队伍，也会输掉三分之一的比赛。你看，是不是很不确定？但是，在大概率上看，有钱的队伍，又会赢得大多数的比赛。这就跟赌场里的庄家通吃差不多。因此，棒球的很多智慧，在赌场里也同样适用。你看，赌场都能搞定，何况日常？