危险！孙正义的千亿赌局

在2010年软银成立30周年股东大会上，孙正义再次给世人描绘出一个新的软银30年愿景，并于2016年10月抛出愿景基金项目，这是一个价值1000亿美金的超大规模私募基金，它有多大呢？比较一下，根据中国基金业协会数据，截至2017年三季度末，备案创业投资基金3687支，累计规模5247亿元，相当于789亿美金。也就是说孙总的这只私募的资金规模，已经超过了中国已经备案的所有其他创投私募之和。

目前，愿景基金已在各个前沿领域广泛布局，包括芯片、卫星、自动驾驶、虚拟现实、癌症检测和基因诊断、人工智能等。

愿景基金管着沙特与阿联酋的主权基金、以及苹果、高通、夏普、富士康等科技巨头们投入的钱。盘子特别特别大。

接下来，孙正义准备募集愿景基金2号，这篇文章，也是在这个节骨眼应运而生，提醒投资者，愿景基金因为孙正义个人标签太重，风险很大。

一起玩味一下标题吧：Too close to the Son

The Vision Fund needs more governance

孙总说了算，愿景基金需要更多的监管。Too close to the Son，是一个谐音的双关，它让我们一下子想起了希腊神话里的伊卡洛斯，他弄了一双蜡做的翅膀，就往太阳飞。Too close to the Son本身，就是危险的意思。这里还扣合是文章的主题，因为该基金孙总一个人说了算，在投资人的角度看，很“危险”，需要更多监管。

一起来欣赏一下，这篇文章的一些精彩片段：因为愿景基金里面的大头是中东两国的主权基金，所以它也背负很多骂名。但是，资本的特点就是冷漠，资本可不在乎骂名。

Many sceptics dismissed the Vision Fund as a vast pot of tainted money squandered on hyped-up assets. 就是专门投泡沫资产的一桶脏钱。And by October last year it looked as if they were right. The murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a journalist, cast Saudi Arabia and the fund into disrepute, while the shares of tech firms started to tank.Now, however, the Masa show is back on the road. The Khashoggi affair has receded and technology stocks have recovered.

愿景基金的一大风险是孙总的“一言堂”

Looking in from the outside, the first problem is“key-man risk”. As with Prince Muhammad’s reign, Mr Son’s rule at the fund is absolute. If he views a startup as sufficiently world-changing, next to nothing will stop him betting big.好漂亮的虚拟语气和倒装。 His is by far the strongest voice on the Vision Fund’s three-member investment committee, which has the final say on what is bought. That is because the other two members are his employees. The PIF can veto investments only if they are for over $3bn. 

另一大风险是在孙总主导下，软银与愿景基金的内部交易。

The second worry is the potential for conflicts of interest between the Vision Fund and SoftBank, a giant conglomerate listed in Japan that Mr Son founded and still runs. In deals where the Vision Fund’s investment process takes too long, Mr Son has in the past used SoftBank’s balance-sheet to buy stakes in young companies which are in turn transferred to the Vision Fund. Often SoftBank makes a profit, as with Didi, a Chinese ride- sharing company, which it bought for $5.9bn in 2017 and will soon transfer to the Vision Fund for  $6.8bn. Very occasionally SoftBank makes a loss. 

虽然软银和愿景基金有共同利益，因为投资的是创业公司，所以监管上，会出各种各样的漏洞。Nonetheless SoftBank has too much scope to manoeuvre unlisted investments in high-growth but loss-making firms. Worse is the scant disclosure on how investments are valued, or how much cash the Vision Fund’s firms are burning up.

 综上所述，孙总如果找您要钱，您一定告诉他，他那个一言九鼎的范儿得改改啦。

When Mr Son comes asking for more money, investors should make it clear that the time has come for his style to change.