20.《灭火》Firefighting

The book we're talking about today is called Putting Out the Fire, a review of the 2007 US financial crisis by Ben Bernanke, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, and Henry Paulson and Timothy Geithner, the two treasury secretaries of the US Treasury. It was the three of them who joined forces to find a way to put out the fires of the 2007 financial crisis.
Today we are not going to talk about the financial crisis itself, but rather we are going to have a brainstorming session to see what the US government's "firefighting" actions can teach us.
One of the insights from Putting Out the Fire is that the financial institutions that were bailed out were not too big to fail, but too big to fail as load-bearing pillars. The two companies involved in the financial crisis, the "two houses", were so extensive that they were like load-bearing pillars that if they fell, they were in danger of collapsing. Like the story of the Medici family in the book The Human Network, the Medici family was the central node in its network and if it fell, the whole network would collapse, so the Medici allies would do everything possible to save it. The other major family of the time, the Albicis, was more powerful and had a wider network, but it was not a central node, and one more or less of him would have lost the opportunity to turn the tide.
The second enlightening solution to a complex problem sometimes requires a one-size-fits-all decision-making solution. It was quite a brave move by the US Treasury to put out the financial fire by pushing through a $700 billion direct bailout.
By the same token, if Wuhan had not taken drastic measures to seal the city when the new crown epidemic hit in 2020, the fire that was the epidemic might not have been contained. We know that sealing the city would have had a huge impact and the responsibility would have been too great, but in such a complex situation, someone needed to step up to the plate, make a snap decision and give a clear course of action. By way of comparison, if the government had responded quickly enough to isolate the 20 kilometres around the fires in Australia and remove all combustible material from the surrounding area, it might not have had such serious consequences.
When faced with a very complex problem, sometimes simple and brutal is the best solution, but only if you are brave enough to take responsibility.
There have been many financial crises, large and small, throughout human history, all rooted in the infinite expansion of desire. The financial crisis of 2007, for example, was ignited by the unlimited issuance of subprime non-performing loans, the packaging of "bad assets", the false identification of safe assets, excessive leverage and the obsession with the game of pass the buck.
"Too big to fail", selfishness, greed - these ideas and human weaknesses have the potential to further fuel our expectations and push us into another abyss. It is therefore not only the responsibility of government regulators to restrain greed, but it is incumbent on everyone.
译文：
今天要聊的这本书，叫《灭火》，这是一本复盘2007年美国金融危机的书，作者是美联储前任主席本·伯南克和美国财政部的两任财长亨利·保尔森和蒂莫西·盖特纳。就是他们三个人联手，想办法扑灭了2007年金融危机的大火。
今天我们不聊金融危机本身，而是来开开脑洞，看美国政府的“灭火”行动，能给我们带来什么启发。
《灭火》中得到的一点感悟是，那些获得救助的金融机构，并非大而不能倒，而是承重柱不能倒。金融危机的两家公司，也就是“两房”牵涉面太广，如同承重柱一样，一旦倒下便有倾覆之危。就像《人类网络》一书中关于美第奇家族的故事一样，美第奇家族在它所处的网络中是核心节点，一旦倒下整个网络都会垮塌，所以美第奇家族的盟友会千方百计地挽救它。而当时的另一个大家族——阿尔比奇家族，虽然力量更强、网络更广，但是它不是核心节点，多他一个不多、少他一个不少，所以就失去了翻盘的机会。
第二个启解决复杂问题，有时候需要一刀切的决策方案。美国财政部为扑灭金融大火，力排众议，直接投放7000亿美金救市，这是相当勇敢的举动。
同样的道理，如果2020年新冠疫情的时候，武汉没有采取严厉的封城措施，疫情这把大火可能就控制不住了。我们知道，封城会造成很大的影响，承担责任太大了，但是在这么复杂的局面下，需要有人站出来，当机立断，给出明确的行动方案。作为对比，澳大利亚山火爆发后，如果政府也能够快速响应，将周围20公里隔离开，并且把周边可燃物全部清除，也许就不会酿成这么严重的后果了。
当遇到非常复杂的问题时，有的时候简单粗暴就是最好的解决方案，当然前提是你要勇于担当。
在人类历史上发生过多次大大小小的金融危机，其根源都是欲望的无限膨胀。拿2007年金融危机为例，次级不良贷款的无限制发放、“坏资产”的层层打包、虚伪的安全资产标识、过高的杠杆率，还有对击鼓传花游戏的痴迷等等，点燃了金融危机的火焰。
“大而不倒”、自私、贪婪，这些想法和人性的弱点有可能进一步刺激我们的预期，把我们推向另一个深渊。因此，约束贪欲不仅是政府监管部门的责任，更是每个人义不容辞的义务。