How terrible is exponential growth?
The development of COVID-19 is often frightening. A country has been adding dozens of people a few days ago, and suddenly it has jumped to thousands of people.
In fact, there has always been a saying that it is difficult for human understanding system to understand this exponential growth. Take the familiar "Moore's law" for example, that is, the performance of a computer will double every two years or so, which is a typical exponential growth. We live in it all the time, and it's hard to think it's great.
It is said that Intel once asked people to think another thing, that is, if the performance of a car has also increased at the speed of Moore's law since 1971, what will happen? Today, the speed of the car will be about 300000 miles per hour, which is more than one hour from the earth to the moon. The fuel consumption per gallon is less than 4 liters, it can run 2 million kilometers, that is, it can run 50 circles around the earth, and its cost is only 4 cents.
You see, what a terrible thing it is to make continuous improvement, that is, exponential growth.
指数级增长有多可怕?
这次新冠疫情的发展经常会吓人一跳,一个国家前几天新增还是每天几十人,突然就蹦到了上千人。
其实一直有一个说法,就是人类的理解系统,很难理解这种指数级增长。就拿我们熟悉的“摩尔定律”来说,就是电脑的性能每隔两年左右就会翻一倍,这是典型的指数级增长。我们一直生活在其中,很难觉得有什么了不起。
据说英特尔公司就曾经让大家换换脑子想另外一件事,就是如果从1971年开始,一部汽车的性能也按照摩尔定律的速度增长,那会发生什么呢?那今天汽车的速度大概会达到每小时30万英里,也就是一个小时可以从地球跑到月球还不止。每加仑的油耗就是不到4升油,可以跑200万公里,也就是可以绕着地球跑50圈,而且它的费用仅仅4美分。
你看,所谓日拱一卒,持续精进,也就是指数级增长,这是多么可怕的一件事啊。
重点词汇
dozens of 几十;很多
thousands of 几千 ; 成千上万
exponential growth 按指数律增长
for example 例如;比如
all the time 一直 ; 一直;始终
another thing 另一件事情
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