【中文版01】埃隆·马斯克：如何发现机会从而颠覆一个行业

【Background】

【背景介绍】

Elon Musk became an innovator at a very early age. Inspired to be an inventor by the example of Thomas Edison and Nikola Tesla, Musk considered three areas he wanted to get into that were particularly important. “One was the Internet, one was clean energy, and one was space,” he said. Subsequently, Musk went on to found or co-found the companies PayPal, SpaceX and Tesla Motors.

These three companies produced, respectively, an Internet payment system (PayPal), the first viable electric car (Tesla’s Roadster), and the successor to NASA’s Space Shuttle (the Dragon reusable spacecraft and F9 rocket). According to Musk, he never aimed to disrupt for disruption’s sake. Instead, he strategized around industries that were stagnant and in need of innovation.

你好，欢迎来到《全球精英的5分钟成长学院》。今天我们邀请到了埃隆·马斯克，他是网络支付平台PayPal、航天工业公司SpaceX，以及汽车公司特斯拉的创始人。今天他将和我们一起分享：怎样彻底颠覆一个行业的格局？

在很小的时候，埃隆·马斯克就投身于创新活动。他将托马斯·爱迪生和尼古拉·特斯拉视为榜样，立志要成为像他们那样的发明家。马斯克一直希望能进入三个对他来说尤为重要的领域。“一个是互联网，一是清洁能源，还有一个是航天领域。”在这之后，他便创立了PayPal、SpaceX和特斯拉。

这三家公司的产品，分别是互联网支付系统PayPal，第一辆实用的电动汽车特斯拉，以及NASA航天飞机的继任者，可重复使用的“龙”飞船和猎鹰9号运载火箭。在马斯克看来，他从来都不是为了颠覆而颠覆。取而代之的是，他总是围绕着那些停滞不前、急需创新的行业，来制定自己的战略布局。

在这节课里，马斯克向我们描述了，作为一名创业者，他是如何在航天领域发现机会的。

【Course】

【课程】

When you’re looking for an opportunity, I think it’s important not so much to focus on just disruption for the sake of it, but rather where is an industry either stagnant or in decline, where the product or service has stayed pretty much the same or maybe even gotten worse over time? It’s worth looking at industries which a lot of people think are impossible or think you can’t succeed at - that’s usually where there’s opportunity. If everyone thinks you can succeed in an industry, they’re probably diving in.

在我看来，当你在寻求创业机遇时，千万不要为了颠覆而颠覆。你应该留意那些停滞不前或者陷入衰退的行业，寻找那些长期以来缺乏变化、甚至每况愈下的产品或者服务。如果有一个行业，许多人都觉得它无法改变、或者他们认为你不可能在其中取得成功，那这个行业就值得你去一探究竟，因为机遇往往就蕴藏在这些行业之中。假如每个人都相信你能在某个行业取得成功，那么他们自己很可能早就投身其中了。

In the space industry, things have gotten worse over time. They’ve not gotten better. When you consider the fact that we were able to go to the moon in ’69, with Saturn V, and then with the space shuttle we were able to go only to low-earth orbit, and now the space shuttle’s retired and the United States cannot get a single person into orbit without the help of the Russians. That is a terrible trajectory. So, I started Space X with the goal of reversing that.

举例来说，在航天领域，情况曾经变得越来越糟糕，而且从没有好转的迹象。你要知道：我们曾经在1969年就使用土星5号火箭登上了月球，而在此之后，我们却只能使用航天飞机进入近地轨道。现在，航天飞机已经退役，在没有俄罗斯人帮助的情况下，美国人甚至不能把哪怕是一个人送入太空轨道了。这就是为什么我创建了Space X公司，并将扭转这一颓势作为我的目标。

On the face it, it appears to be somewhat daunting because, you know, how can a startup prevail in an industry dominated by giants who receive huge subsidies? But, on the other side, what those subsidies have done, they’ve made those companies very inefficient and somewhat reliant on those subsidies. They’re not very good at innovation, and they’re unwilling to take risks. So, provided you can get through that initial startup phase, once you exceed them in capability and technology, they have no real ability to catch up.

在起步之时，航天领域的情况看起来令人望而却步，要知道，这个行业一直以来是由一些行业巨头所统治的，而这些行业巨头一直以来都享受着巨额的补贴，那像SpaceX这样的一家初创公司，怎么可能取得胜利呢？

但是当我们仔细去研究，我们就会发现，高额的补贴反而产生了负面的影响。它们让那些巨头公司变得效率低下，而且，在某种程度上，这些公司对补贴产生了很强的依赖性。这些公司变得不擅创新，而且也不愿意承担风险。所以，假如你能渡过创业的初期阶段，一旦你的公司能在能力和技术上超越它们，你就会发现，这些公司根本没有迎头赶上的能力。

And that’s what we’re finding with Space X. In the last couple of years Space X has won more launch contracts than any other country, let alone company in the launch business.

这正是Space X所发现的情况。在过去的几年时间里，Space X赢得的发射合同，已经超过了任何一个国家。而那些发射业务领域的公司，更是被远远抛在了后面。

Position yourself to disrupt

将自己定位成颠覆性角色

The world is going to change so dramatically in the 21st century that, you know, in so many ways, that I think the important thing is to identify something, try to aim for a big problem rather than a small problem. Just look for industries that are functioning poorly and that have been stagnant for some period of time or even in decline, and then it’s worth trying to start a company to change the way that industry behaves.

在21世纪，世界将会在许多领域经历剧烈的变化。所以我认为，重要的事情在于，你要学习从中鉴别一些东西，并试着关注一个大问题，而非一个小问题。去寻找那些运作不良、长期停滞不前乃至陷入衰退的行业吧，接着，去创立一家公司，改变整个行业的运转模式，这一切都是值得你去尝试的。

【Summary】

【总结】

In this lesson, Musk describes how he learned to recognize opportunities as an entrepreneur in the space industry. Consider taking a similar approach in the industry of your choice.

Identify your disruption space.

Think big.

Isolate stagnant, failing, poorly-functioning industries.

在这节课里，马斯克向我们描述了，作为一名创业者，他是如何在航天领域发现机会的。

你可以考虑将类似的策略运用到你所选择的行业里。

一、找出你可以颠覆的空间

二、 大胆想象

三、筛选出那些停滞不前、陷入衰退、运作不良的行业

本节目英文版音频和视频均由美国Big Think Edge 独家授权，中文版由喜马拉雅制作播出。感谢收听，我们下集节目再见！