HS2：为什么 苏纳克的豪赌可能不会有回报-慢速+文稿

HS2: Why Rishi Sunak's big gamble may not pay off

HS2：为什么 苏纳克的豪赌可能不会有回报

When Rishi Sunak confirmed he was scrapping the hugeinfrastructure project  of the WestMidlands to Manchester leg of HS2 high speed rail, he said the project had comefrom a "false consensus" that links between big cities were "allthat matters".

当 苏纳克证实他将取消HS2 高速铁路西米德兰兹郡至曼彻斯特段的大型基础设施项目时，他表示该项目源于一种“错误的共识”，即大城市之间的联系“才是最重要的”。

The immediate pressing question is whether the UK is capableof delivering projects at this scale, at all. This was a nationally strategicproject advertised to the world as a way for Britain's regional cities toattract investment from the biggest investment funds in the world.

当前紧迫的问题是英国是否有能力交付如此规模的项目。 这是一个向世界宣传的国家战略项目，作为英国地区城市吸引世界上最大投资基金投资的一种方式。

All of the Prime Minister's secret conference projects werecodenamed after trees. Scrapping HS2 was called "Project Redwood".High speed rail in the UK has been shorn of its branches, and is now left as anexpensive stump from London to Birmingham.

首相的所有秘密会议项目都以树木为代号。废弃 HS2 被称为“红木计划”。英国的高铁已经被砍掉了树枝，现在只剩下从伦敦到伯明翰的一个昂贵的树桩。

The escalating cost of this first phase was not a given. Howwas it allowed to balloon in cost so much to £45bn - and that's in 2019 prices?The country is left with having built the most expensive part of the line, withthe least need in terms of capacity, but without the connections to northerncities that would have been most beneficial.

第一阶段不断上升的成本并不是必然的。它是如何被允许成本大幅膨胀至450 亿英镑的——而且这是2019 年的价格？英国只能建造该线路最昂贵，但在运力方面需求最少的部分，但舍弃了连接北部城市这本来是最有益处的路段。

Did it ever make sense to build what is largely a tunnelfrom London to Birmingham? Was the cash that should have extended the scheme tothe north, the whole point of it, wasted on tunnels to hide it in southerncountryside?

修建一条从伦敦到伯明翰的隧道是否有意义？本来应该将该计划扩展到北部的资金，也是整个项目的重点，是否浪费在了将隐藏在南部乡村的隧道上？

With rising costs, the government says that the HS2 schememight not even give back as much in benefits, as what is being spent on it. Incontrast, some bus projects, for example, can give back £4 for a £1 governmentinvestment, they claim.

政府表示，随着成本上升，HS2计划所带来的福利甚至可能不如其支出那么多。相比之下，他们声称，例如，一些公交车项目可以为1 英镑的政府投资回馈4 英镑。

Tax cut plans?

Opponents accuse the government of scrapping a key piece ofstrategic infrastructure to create space for pre-election tax cuts. Thegovernment is adamant that this is not a way to fiddle the Treasuryspreadsheets. While some detail remains on exactly when these new road and busprojects are delivered, their aim is not to free up cash.

减税计划？

反对者指责政府废弃一项关键的战略基础设施，为选举前的减税创造空间。政府坚称这不是玩弄财政部表格。虽然这些新的道路和公交车项目的具体交付时间仍有一些细节需澄清，但他们的目的并不是释放经费。

The government also argues that the business case for HS2lent significantly on business travellers. While overall passenger numbers haverecovered to pre-pandemic levels, there are fewer business travellers now. Arethese behavioural changes enough to mean the West Coast Main Line from Londonto Glasgow will not be at capacity?

政府还称，HS2 的商业盈利主要寄望于商务旅客。虽然总体乘客数量已恢复至疫情前的水平，但商务旅客数量有所减少。这些行为变化是否足以表明，从伦敦到格拉斯哥的西海岸干线将无法满载呢？

The great prize of all of this was to change Britain'seconomic geography, to create a counterweight to south east England, and ineffect to create a single labour market across three major northern cities.Some of that effect will be retained if the £12bn earmarked for Liverpool toManchester high speed line is delivered.

所有这一切的最大好处是改变英国的经济地理，形成对英格兰东南部的平衡，并实际上在三个北部主要城市建立一个单一的劳动力市场。如果用于利物浦至曼彻斯特高速线的120 亿英镑能交付，这种影响将得到部分保留。

The money is being spent instead on everyday transportupgrades, rather than a single grand project. It is likely that the benefits ofthis will be quicker and more visible on the ground. They also lend themselvesto being put on election leaflets next year.

然而这笔钱被用于日常交通升级，而不是某一宏伟项目。这样做的好处可能会更快、更明显。它们还有助于被贴在明年的选举传单上。

The economic and political consensus had been that the gapbetween Britain's second tier cities and the capital was significantly biggerthan other major economies. Indeed some have argued this was a major cause ofBritain's low productivity. The Prime Minister has upended that consensus.

经济和政治共识是，英国二线城市与首都之间的差距明显大于其他主要经济体。事实上，一些人认为这是英国生产力低下的主要原因。首相颠覆了这一共识。

The opposition's response will be very interesting. RishiSunak has basically dared Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer to reverse thecancellation decision, cut back the newly announced local transport projects,or borrow billions more.

反对派的反应将非常有趣。苏纳克基本上是在向工党领袖凯尔·斯塔默爵士发起挑战，他们要么推翻取消高铁建设的决定，削减新宣布的当地交通项目，或者再借款数十亿英镑。

These plans will probably reach more voters more quickly.But the risk is that Britain also develops a reputation as a place where biglong-term projects are impossible, and cast iron cross party promises areeasily disposed.

这些计划可能会更快地惠及更多选民。但风险在于，英国也被认为不可能开展大型长期项目，而且跨党派承诺很容易被推翻。

Mr Sunak has not just scrapped half a train line, he hassuggested an entirely different approach to promoting British regional economicgrowth.

苏纳克废弃的不是一半的火车线路，他提出了以一种完全不同的方法来促进英国地区经济增长。