第1905期:GPS Data Could Predict Earthquakes Hours Ahead

Researchers say they have identified earth movement signals that could predict earthquakes up to two hours before they hit. The signals were recorded, or detected, by GPS collection devices. The devices were positioned in areas where major earthquakes had struck in the past. Scientists noted, however, that the right equipment does not currently exist to use the data to predict earthquakes. But if the sensitivity of current GPS measuring devices can be improved, the researchers say a new earthquake warning system could be possible.

研究人员表示，他们已经识别出地球运动信号，可以在地震发生前两小时预测地震。这些信号由 GPS 收集设备记录或检测。 这些设备位于过去发生过大地震的地区。然而，科学家指出，目前尚不存在使用这些数据来预测地震的合适设备。 但研究人员表示，如果当前 GPS 测量设备的灵敏度能够得到提高，新的地震预警系统就有可能实现。

Earthquakes are caused by movements, or slips, in existing faults under Earth’s surface, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) explains. A fault is a long break in rock attached to Earth’s crust. When tension builds up along a fault, energy waves are released and travel through the crust. This causes the ground to shake. Technology for predicting earthquakes currently remains very limited. But the USGS does have equipment that can pick up seismic data when an earthquake is just starting. The term seismic relates to earthquake activity. The USGS method makes it possible to warn people in areas where seismic activity is expected. But this method generally can only provide a warning several seconds before an earthquake hits. The USGS system is called ShakeAlert. It has already been deployed along the U.S. West Coast. That is where the majority of earthquakes happen in the country.

美国地质调查局 (USGS) 解释说，地震是由地球表面下现有断层的运动或滑动引起的。 断层是附着在地壳上的岩石的长期断裂。 当断层上的张力增强时，能量波就会被释放并穿过地壳。 这会导致地面震动。目前预测地震的技术仍然非常有限。 但美国地质勘探局确实拥有可以在地震刚开始时采集地震数据的设备。 地震一词与地震活动有关。美国地质调查局的方法可以向预计发生地震活动的地区的人们发出警告。 但这种方法一般只能在地震发生前几秒发出警告。 美国地质调查局的系统称为 ShakeAlert。 它已经在美国西海岸部署。 这是该国大多数地震发生的地方。

But the new detection method could produce warnings up to two hours before the damaging effects of an earthquake are felt. Such a system could save lives by giving people the chance to get out of buildings that might collapse in an earthquake. Two scientists from France’s National Research Institute for Sustainable Development carried out a study that described the latest results. The findings recently appeared in the publication Science.↳ For the study, researchers examined GPS data collected before and after past earthquake events around the world. The data was collected on 90 earthquakes measuring larger than 7 on the Richter scale. The study period covered the past 20 years.

但新的检测方法可以在感受到地震破坏性影响之前两个小时发出警告。 这样的系统可以让人们有机会逃离可能在地震中倒塌的建筑物，从而挽救生命。法国国家可持续发展研究所的两名科学家进行了一项研究，描述了最新结果。 该研究结果最近发表在《科学》杂志上。在这项研究中，研究人员检查了世界各地过去地震事件前后收集的 GPS 数据。 这些数据收集了 90 次里氏 7 级以上的地震。 研究时间跨度近20年。

The team identified a pattern of fault movements as they examined the data collected from different areas. The movement signals were recorded within two hours of an earthquake striking. The researchers said the study demonstrates that faults generally begin to move about two hours before a large earthquake. Scientists had identified such signals before single earthquakes in the past. But until now, researchers were not able to link those signals to all seismic events. While the data identified this pattern, the scientists said the instruments that could capture GPS data in real time do not currently exist.

研究小组在检查从不同区域收集的数据时发现了断层运动的模式。 地震发生后两小时内记录了运动信号。 研究人员表示，研究表明断层通常在大地震发生前两小时左右开始移动。科学家们在过去的单次地震之前就发现了此类信号。 但到目前为止，研究人员还无法将这些信号与所有地震事件联系起来。虽然数据识别出了这种模式，但科学家们表示，目前还不存在能够实时捕获 GPS 数据的仪器。

The National Research Institute for Sustainable Development issued a statement on the development. It said that in order to make predictions, researchers “would need to measure signals at least 10 times smaller than what we can presently do.” Another way to possibly build a better earthquake prediction system would be to develop “dense measurement networks” that sit very close to faults.

国家可持续发展研究所就此发表了一份声明。报告称，为了做出预测，研究人员“需要测量的信号至少比我们目前所能测量的信号小 10 倍。”另一种可能建立更好的地震预测系统的方法是开发非常靠近断层的“密集测量网络”。