51.Can economists predict

51.Can economists predict?
There is a saying: "amateurs always pursue prediction, while professionals only process information and make decisions based on probability."
How do you say that? Let me give you an example. For example, when a patient is sent to the emergency room, his family will ask the doctor: can he survive? When can he be cured and go home? You see, it's a layman's instinct to ask doctors to make predictions. But what about the doctor? Doctors are not fortune tellers. They can only make decisions based on the information they can collect at this moment, and then make decisions based on their experience and knowledge. So the doctor can't answer the two questions asked by the family members.
That's the real difference between a layman and an expert. The same is true in economics. Laymen are always chasing economists to ask, what will be the future of the economy? But the real economists, they are just extrapolating the future based on the information collected at present and the models in his mind.
So those economists who are constantly making predictions about the future are not professional, they are just catering to laymen.
经济学家会预测吗？
有句话说：“业余人员总是追求预测，而专业人员仅仅处理信息，并根据概率做出决策。”
这话怎么说呢？我举个例子，比如说一个病人被送入急救室，家属会问医生：他能活下来吗？他的病什么时候可以治好回家？你看，这是这是外行的本能反应，要求医生做出预测。但是医生呢？医生不是算命的，他只能根据此时此刻能搜集到的信息，然后根据经验和知识做决策，走一步看一步。所以家属问的那两个问题，医生是回答不了的。
这就是外行和内行的真正区别。经济学领域也一样。外行总是追着问经济学家，经济未来会怎么样啊？但是真正的经济学家呢，他们只是在根据眼下搜集到的信息，和他脑子里的模型，对未来做外推。
所以那些动不动就铁口直断对未来做预测的经济学家，他们不是在干专业，他们只是在迎合外行啊。
重点词汇
There is 有
based on 以……为基础；在……基础上，以……为依据
For example 例如;比如
emergency room 急诊室(缩略形式为ER)
go home 回家
at this moment 此刻;目前;眼下
and then 然后
family members 属；家属
​