上海依然是一块投资“磁石” 中国经济基本面持续向好

上海依然是一块投资“磁石” 中国经济基本面持续向好 

Pandemic Effects Were Temporary Fundamentals Remain Good

何研究员，你好，欢迎来到“财道”。谢谢，很高兴来到这里。中国第二季度的一些GDP数据显示了中国经济的韧性。上半年，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长3.4%。您有什么看法？

Hello, Mr.He. Welcome to Money Talks. Thank you. My pleasure to be here.So some of China’s second quarter GDP figures show the economy's resilience. China's total added value of major industrial enterprises increased by 3.4 % on the yearly basis in the first half. What do you think of these figures?

我觉得尽管经历了下跌和上涨，这些数据显示了中国经济的韧性。今年的头两个月工业生产增长了6.5%，但之后尤其是在4月份出现了负增长，5月又开始快速增长，6月增长速度逐渐放缓，增长3%。总的来说，上半年工业生产增长了3.4%。这说明工业生产发展韧性强，受到疫情影响也只是暂时的。这不仅仅是因为基本面向好，中国经济基本面一直很好。我们坚信下半年中国经济将会继续复苏。

I think these figures show that China, of course, the economy is resilient. Still it has experienced down first and up second. During the first two months of this year, we remember that industrial production grew by 6. 5 %, but later, especially in the month of April, a negative growth.Then next positive growth, again, in may very fast, and in the month of June 3 %.So for 6 months or the first half as a whole is 3.4%. That means industrial production is still resilient, is affected only temporarily by the pandemic. It's not all because of the fundamentals. The fundamentals have been good. We are quite confident that China's economy will pick up again, for the second half of this year.

就上海来说，您认为经济复苏的主要动能是什么？

For Shanghai, in particular, what do you think are the major drivers of the economic recovery？

六月工业生产以两位数增长尤其令人震惊。这意味着工业生产是推动经济发展的动能。此外，上海物流发达，因此出口贸易也是推动经济发展的动能。投资也是非常重要的一大动能。在创新投资和技术发展方面，上海非常有优势，推动了经济发展。

For the month of June, the industrial production performance was especially alarming, is grew by two digit. So that means industrial production that was the driver of the economy. Another driver is the export trade because of the logistics was okayand another important driver is investment.And innovation investment and technology advances in Shanghai is very strong.It pushed up to the economy.

你谈到了投资，花旗银行预计中国2022年的基础设施投资可能会比去年多出7.7%。地方政府一直在以前所未有的速度发行债券来支持工业园区、交通网络、水利工程移动网络和数据中心的建设。你觉得我们是否进入了新一轮基础设施布局？

And you've talked about investment.Citigroup has projected that infrastructure investment in 2022will likely rise 7.7% from last year.Local governments have been issuing bonds at a record paceto fund industrial parks, transportation networks, water projects, mobile networks and data centers.Do you think we have entered a new cycle of infrastructure development? 

基础设施投资，我认为首先是水利。其次是交通运输，然后是城市建设、地下管道系统。这些都属于基础设施，是非常常见也可能是占比最大的部分。其次是新基建的投资。智慧经济、高端前沿技术、产业革命、人工智能、物联网，甚至也包括元宇宙等领域。任何与这些产业发展相关的投资都可以看作是新基建投资

Infrastructure investment, I think first water conservancy, then transportation, then the urban area, underground pipe systems, they are all infrastructure.And they are very common and maybe they account for the largest part.And then invest infrastructure in second categoryshould be devoted to new infrastructure investment that means related to advanced economy, the higher end, the frontier technology, related to the for the industrial revolution, artificial Intelligence, internet of things or anything, even the metaverse so on and so forth.So anything related to development of those future industry should be regarded as new infrastructure investment.

2022上海全球投资促进大会共签约322个重大产业项目，总投资达5658亿元。总投资1627亿元的48个重大产业项目开工。您认为上海如何保持对国内外投资者的吸引力？

Deals on investments totally 566 billion yuan covering 322 major projects were signedat the Shanghai global investment promotion conference 2022 and the start of construction 48 major projects worth 163 billion yuan was also announced. 

How do you think Shanghai can maintain its attractiveness to investors both at home and abroad?

我们应该为全世界的投资者提供一个透明、可预测、安全的环境。让投资者知道上海依旧是一块“磁石”具有强大的吸引力且蕴含商机。上海要开放发展，面向世界，不仅仅是自贸区，也要在临港新片区探索进行全方位、高水平开放。

We should do a good job to improve our governance to provide a transparent, a transparent, predictable and safe environment for all the companies all over the world.So that let them know that Shanghai is still the magnet of the world and still it has good business opportunities.Shanghai should keep her door open to the world, not only do a better job in Shanghai Free trade zones, even in Lin-gang, a special area.

非常感谢何研究员的分享

Thank you, Mr.He for sharing your insights with us.

谢谢

Thank you. It's my pleasure.