来听听小田园的英语作业？Should We Message Aliens?

封面绘画：小田园

嘉宾：Kalinda

片头音乐：ALONE to ALONE --lasah, sasakure.UK

片尾音乐：アンノウン・マザーグース（Unknown Mother-Goose, 不为人知的鹅妈妈童谣）--wowaka, Hatsune Miku

Should we message Aliens?

Earth is just a normal planet in the space that contains 1400 billion galaxy, and each galaxy contain 3000 billion planets, only in the milky way galaxy there are more than 3 billion planets that like earth. In this huge space it’s impossible that there is only intelligent life like us.

So here comes the problem, should we initiatively message them? Of course we want to search Extra Terrestrial intelligence; we already start to take actions in the search, which the plan is short for SETI. Other plan that is similar to SETI is METI, METI stands for Message Extra Terrestrial intelligence. But would this cause problem? Is it dangerous? Actually the human still don’t have a unify answer, and this is the problem we’ll discuss in this episode.

(Theme music)

My name is Evelyn, and I will host this episode,

Did you ever read the book “3 body”? This is the most famous science fiction novel in China, its ok you didn’t read it before because we are going to explain it. Are you confused about why human shouldn’t message the Aliens initiatively? It seems so cool, but it might cause huge dangerous! The theory in the second part in the “3 body” it explained why it is dangerous perfectly. First, we make two axiom. 1,survive is the first requirement of a civilization. 2, with the civilizations growing and spending, the total material amount remains unchanged. And we need two concept, Suspicion chain and technology explosion. These two concept proved that we can never trust each other between civilizations, Communication is ineffective in the face of survival and deaths, and any weak civilization’s technology can grow in a very short time like an explosion, became more powerful than its enemy. Based on these two concepts and axiom, the Dark Forest theory can be told. The space is a dark forest, every single civilization is a hunter with its gun. If i discovered someone else, i can’t communicate with it because there is no trust between civilizations, i can’t pretend i didn’t see you because you may become stronger suddenly and kill us! Letting you know my existence or keeping your existence are both dangerous, and there is only one option left. The only way to survive in this dark forest is to wipe out anyone that exposed its direction.

And the real world might be like this too. This one of the reason (or the main reason)  why people against METI. If the Dark Forest theory is true than human civilization’s massage to the space is like a child that’s playing fire and shouting “I’m here, I’m here!”.

But science fiction is always just a science fiction, although it  is humdinger, it is not a serious science theory. We can still found some breakthrough points. Actually the whole theory has a hidden precondition, that is The amount of resources in the universe is already insufficient for civilizations to  use. But the Real astronomical observations suggest the fact is opposite. And It is also possible to break down the suspicion chain from a game theory perspective. There are questions about these two axioms too. The first requirement of a civilization might not be “survive” but “sustainable survival”, a civilization might limit its expansion. Also the total amount of resources in the space might be increasing or even infinite. There are still too much things humans are not sure.

I think you already know the basic information and opinions of people who support SETI or METI, to make their point clearer, we will simulate a small debate between SETI supporter and METI supporter. Let’s welcome Kalinda~~(clap)

K: In this debate I will play the part of SETI supporter, and Evelyn will play the part of METI supporter.

E: there is a Lonely child, living in a greenhouse where resources are slowly running out. He tried to open the door of the room and go out, but outside is just an infinite void. Seems like there are some lights shining far away, he realized he has friends outside somewhere. He is listening, trying to observe any signal from the others. But he didn’t discovered anything. He finally realized he already grow up. He needs to join a big family outside, he needs to face the unknown. He should shout to the world: “Hello, I’m here!!” 

K: the only thing i can say is “naivete.” Actually silly and naivete. What this kid doesn’t know is the “family” outside that he thought, is staring at him and drooling. Remember what happened when Americans came to Africa and Europeans met Indians? When civilizations that is more advances than us found us... why we made the same mistake? Guys, don’t be so naivete, It is a hopeless wager on the fate of every single human! For our family, for the human civilization, for ourselves, please don’t make that high risk.

E: civilizations are called civilizations because they are civilized! For a more stable survival civilizations need learn to limit their actions, not destroy every body else it see! Human civilization need a saver, global warming, environmental problems, energy dilemma, human need external power to push! Don't let groundless guesses stop human from exploring the universe!

K: our guesses are not groundless, the Fermi Paradox, if there are really a huge amount of civilizations in out galaxy, we should be able to find other civilizations’ trails everywhere! But what we observed is the universe is in a big silent. The Dark Forest theory is an explaination of Fermi Paradox, whatever it is true or not, extra terrestrial intellegence is dangerous, Even if we were lucky enough to get it right 99 times and survive, if we get it wrong 1 time, we don’t have the chance to guess the 101st time. Vicious civilizations must exist, because of the Murphy’s law, as long as something can go worse, it will happen, Then the threat to the earth is 100 percent.

E: the risk obviously exist, but does things become safer because we covered out eyes? Should we learn from ostriches that bury their heads in the sand?

K: i think ostriches should bury its whole body under the sand, prevent from being discovered! Also if a chicken learned how to talk it shouldn’t go up on the street and shout: “I’m delicious!”

E: if you think no civilizations should keep silent, why we have the SETI plan? If what you said is true SETI should stands for Search of Extra Terrestrial Idiots!

K: We against METI not SETI! SETI is save but METI is not! We shouldn’t leave the human in the unknown.

E: That's what some people said when Columbus set out for the unknown mysterious sea! Even there may be danger, human needs to set sail.

K: differences between Columbus and METI is if we found an island with full of strong vicious hunters, the whole human civilization will no longer exist! Even Only One in a hundred glasses of wine is poisonous, d enough to kill a man!

This is the end of the debate, do you have and answer in your mind? Or you are more confused about it? Whatever you think this is the end of the episode! Here’s Kalinda and Evelyn, thank you for listening.