通货膨胀和股权收益(1)

In place where it has been long absent, it is hard to remember what a curse inflation is. In other places, it is hard to forget it. Take Zimbabwe. In 2008 it suffered an inflation rate in the squillions. Prices doubled every few weeks, then every few days.
Banknotes were so much confetti. Some people turned to equities as a store of value. A share purchased on Monday might be sold on Friday. Harare's stock exchange was almost like a cash machine.
In principle, equities are a good hedge against inflation. Business revenues should track consumer prices; and shares are claims on that revenue. In some cases, they may be the only available hedge. Iran, for instance, has had one of the better performing stockmarkets,
because locals have sought protection from inflation. Sanctions make it dangerous to keep money ofshore. Rich- country investors have a dfferent sort of headache. Though the immediate outlook is for inflation to stay low, it could plausibly pick up later on.
If it does, edge cases like Zimbabwe or Iran are a bad guide. The link between inflation and equity returns is not straightforward. Stocks are a decent inflation hedge in the long run. But over shorter horizons, there is an inverse relationship.
Rising inflation is associated with flling stock prices, and vice versa. Start with the evidence that stocks beat inflation over the long haul. In the most recent Credit Suisse global investment returns yearbook,
a long -running survey, Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton show that global equities have returned an average 5.2% a year above inflation since 1900. You may quibble that the survey covers the sorts of stable places that have had a long run of stock prices in the first place, such as Britain and America.
Even so, the finding fits with intuition. When you buy the equity market, you buy a cross section of a country's real assets. Yet stock investors still need to be mindful of inflation.
Markets tend to put a lower value on a stream of cash flows when inflation rises; and a higher price on cash flows when it fll.