104.我们还要隔离到什么时候？

Coronavirus Distancing May Need to Continue Until 2022, Say Experts

Physical distancing measures may need to be in place intermittently until 2022, scientists have warned in an analysis that suggests there could be resurgences of Covid-19 for years to come.

科学家在一项分析报告中警告称，间歇性的隔离措施可能需要持续到2022年。这项报告指出，未来几年，新冠疫情可能会卷土重来。

The paper, published in the journal Science, concludes that a one-time lockdown will not be sufficient to bring the pandemic under control and that secondary peaks could be larger than the current one without continued restrictions.

这份发表在《科学》期刊上的研究报告得出结论说，一时的封锁不足以控制全球性流行病，如果没有持续的限制措施，二次高峰可能会比目前这次更严重。

One scenario predicted a resurgence could occur as far in the future as 2025 in the absence of a vaccine or effective treatment.

该研究的一次场景模拟预测，在没有疫苗或有效治疗方法的情况下，新冠肺炎疫情可能会在2025年再度袭来。

Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-author of the study, said: “Infections spread when there are two things: infected people and susceptible people. Unless there is some enormously larger amount of herd immunity than we’re aware of … the majority of the population is still susceptible.

这份研究报告的合著者、哈佛大学流行病学教授马克·利普斯蒂奇（Marc Lipsitch）说：“两个因素会引发传染病的传播：被感染者和易感染者。除非群体免疫的人群比我们所知道的大得多……否则，大多数人口都仍是易感染者。”

New treatments, a vaccine, or increasing critical care capacity could alleviate the need for stringent physical distancing, according to the paper. “But in the absence of these, surveillance and intermittent distancing may need to be maintained into 2022,” the authors conclude.

这份研究报告指出，新的疗法、疫苗或急救护理能力的提高可以缓解对严格隔离措施的需求，但是作者总结道：“如果上述的这些都没有的话，监控和间歇性的隔离措施可能将持续到2022年。”

sufficient  充足的

peaks  顶峰;高峰

Infections 传染（病）

alleviate 缓解

analysis  分析

current 目前的

predicted 预测

effective 有效的

immunity 免疫力