英语新闻丨Economy on stable footing, experts say

China's economy has started 2024 on a stable footing, indicating a sustained trajectory of robust recovery throughout the year, despite pressures and challenges both at home and abroad, officials and analysts said on Thursday.

4月11日，中国官员和经济分析师表示，虽然面临国内外压力和挑战，2024年中国经济基础开局依然稳定，显示出稳定强劲的复苏势头。

While the relatively weak consumer price rises in March point to pressure from lackluster demand, analysts said they believe that China's economic conditions would continue to improve in the following months with more policy measures expected to help expand effective investment and bolster a consumer-led recovery.

分析师表示，尽管3月份消费价格上涨相对疲软，需求低迷，但他们相信未来几个月中国经济状况将继续改善，预计将有更多政策措施帮助扩大有效投资、促进消费、拉动复苏。

An official of the National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic regulator, told China Daily on Thursday that "the long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy has not changed and will not change". The remarks came after Fitch Ratings recently revised the outlook on China's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating to negative from stable.

4月11日，中国最高经济监管机构国家发展和改革委员会的一名官员在接受《中国日报》采访时表示：“中国经济长期向好的趋势没有改变、也不会改变”。此前，惠誉评级近期将中国长期外币发行人违约评级展望从稳定调整为负面。

The official said that China's economy still enjoys favorable conditions and positive factors, given its powerful industrial production capacity, a complete industrial system, continuously strengthening innovation capabilities and its ultra-large domestic market. "China's economy enjoys a solid foundation, strong resilience and dynamism, and great potential and vitality," the official said. "Looking ahead, its long-term positive trend will remain unchanged."

该官员表示，中国具有强大的工业生产能力、完整的产业体系、不断增强的创新能力和超大的国内市场，经济发展环境依然向好。中国经济基础坚实，韧性和活力强劲，潜力和活力巨大。展望未来，其长期向好的趋势不会改变。

Lu Jiangyuan, an associate researcher at the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research's Economic Research Institute, noted that while Fitch Ratings revised the outlook on China to negative, it affirmed the issuer default rating at "A+. “It reflects the recognition of foreign rating agencies for China's economic growth prospects, its position as a global goods trading center, and its robust external finances," Lu said. "China's economy still possesses robust growth prospects."

中国宏观经济研究院经济研究所副研究员卢江源指出，惠誉国际评级虽然将中国的前景调整为负面，但发行人违约评级仍为“A+”。这体现了国外评级机构对中国经济增长前景、全球货物贸易中心地位和强劲外部金融的认可。中国经济仍然拥有强劲的增长前景。

While Fitch downgraded the outlook due to concerns over the rising leverage ratio of the government sector, Lu said the government debt risk is generally controllable. "To some extent, Fitch has overestimated China's government debt pressure."

卢江源表示，惠誉此举是因担心中国政府杠杆率上升，但实际上我国政府债务风险总体可控。在某种程度上，惠誉夸大了中国政府的债务压力。

The NDRC official said that "the economy performed stably this year", as fixed-asset investment jumped 4.2 percent year-on-year in the first two months of the year, 1.2 percentage points higher than the growth in 2023. Barring real estate, fixed-asset investment grew 8.9 percent during the January-February period, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. China's economy is showing signs of stabilization, with improvement in indicators such as exports, industrial production and investment.

发改委官员表示，“今年经济运行平稳”，今年前两个月固定资产投资同比增长4.2%，比2023年增速高1.2个百分点。国家统计局数据显示，除房地产外，1、2月固定资产投资增长8.9%。

中国经济出现企稳迹象，出口、工业生产、投资等指标有所改善。

Given China's better-than-expected economic performance, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have both raised their outlook for China's economic growth this year. Morgan Stanley has revised China's 2024 real gross domestic product forecast from 4.2 percent to 4.8 percent. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for China's growth this year to 5 percent from the 4.8 percent earlier expected, and it also revised China's first-quarter GDP growth forecast from 4.5 percent to 5 percent.

鉴于中国经济表现好于预期，摩根士丹利和高盛均上调了今年中国经济增长预期。摩根士丹利将中国2024年实际国内生产总值预测从4.2%修正为4.8%。高盛将中国今年经济增长预期从此前的4.8%上调至5%，并将中国第一季度GDP增长预期从4.5%下调至5%。

In the next step, the official said China will "give full play to the guiding role of government investment", adjust and optimize the structure of investment from the central government budget and appropriately expand the scope of investment in local government special bonds and the scope of the project capital. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday that China's consumer prices rose at a slower pace in March while the decline in factory gate prices widened, suggesting that more policy stimulus may be needed to boost domestic demand.

发改委官员表示，下一步，中国将“充分发挥政府投资的引导作用”，调整优化中央预算内投资结构，适当扩大地方政府专项债券投资范围和范围。4月11日，国家统计局公布的数据显示，3月份中国居民消费价格涨幅放缓，出厂价格降幅扩大，表明可能需要更多政策刺激来提振内需。

The country's consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, rose by 0.1 percent year-on-year in March, cooling from the 0.7 percent annual gain in February. The producer price index, which gauges factory-gate prices, dropped by 2.8 percent from a year ago in March, following a 2.7 percent fall in February, the NBS said.

国家统计局数据显示，3月份，中国消费者价格指数（衡量通胀的主要指标）同比上涨0.1%，较2月份0.7%的年涨幅有所回落。工业生产者出厂价格指数（衡量出厂价格的主要指标）继2月份下降2.7%后，3月份同比下降2.8%。

Zhou Maohua, a researcher at China Everbright Bank, said the slower CPI growth and widening PPI decline in March came mainly due to lackluster demand, the shift in the timing of the Chinese New Year and the base effect.

光大银行研究员周茂华表示，3月份CPI增速放缓、PPI降幅扩大，主要是由于春节假期需求低迷，也要考虑到基数效应的影响。

Looking ahead to the following months, Zhou said he expects to see a mild price rebound with the waning COVID-19 impact, gradually getting back to a balance between market supply and demand and more aggressive fiscal policies.

他表示，未来几个月，随着COVID-19影响持续减弱，预计价格将出现平稳反弹，市场供需将逐步恢复平衡，财政政策将更加积极。

Meanwhile, Zhou underscored the need for more policy support to bolster the world's second-largest economy, saying policymakers need to further consolidate the foundations of consumption and demand recovery while optimizing the supply-side structure. "Efforts to reduce overcapacity in certain sectors and promote a balanced domestic supply and demand dynamic are crucial for fostering a sustained economic recovery," Zhou said.

与此同时，周茂华强调，需要更多政策支持来支撑世界第二大经济体的发展，政策制定者需要在优化供给侧结构的同时，进一步夯实消费和需求复苏的基础。努力化解某些行业的产能过剩，促进国内供需平衡，对于促进经济持续复苏至关重要。

downgrade

英/ˌdaʊnˈɡreɪd/ 美/ˌdaʊnˈɡreɪd/

v.下调;降级

theleverage ratio

杠杆率