第1851期:Earth Is in Danger

Earth is now considered to be in a “danger zone,” a new study says. An international group of scientists called Earth Commission did the study. It appeared in the publication Nature. The researchers report that conditions on Earth have pushed past seven of eight safety limits established by science. The experts say the planet is very sick and all life, humans included, face extreme risks as a result. The study examines climate, air pollution, fertilizer pollution in water, groundwater supplies, fresh surface water, the unbuilt natural environment and the larger human-built environment. The research shows each of those areas have passed into dangerous conditions worldwide. Only air pollution is within the identified safety zone, the scientists report.

一项新研究称，地球现在被认为处于“危险地带”。一个名为地球委员会的国际科学家小组进行了这项研究。它出现在《自然》杂志上。研究人员报告说，地球上的条件已经超过了科学规定的八个安全极限中的七个。专家说，地球病得很重，包括人类在内的所有生命都因此面临极端风险。该研究考察了气候、空气污染、水中肥料污染、地下水供应、地表淡水、未建成的自然环境和更大的人造环境。研究表明，这些地区中的每一个都已在全球范围内陷入危险境地。科学家报告说，只有空气污染在确定的安全区内。

However, the report notes that air pollution is dangerous at local levels. The study found problem “hot spot” areas throughout the world, much of it from climate change. About two-thirds of Earth does not meet safe levels for freshwater supply, scientists said. Joyeeta Gupta is the Earth Commission co-chair and professor of environment at the University of Amsterdam. She told reporters that if planet Earth went to a medical exam, “our doctor would say that the Earth is really quite sick right now and it … is also affecting the people living on Earth.” But the planet can recover if people make changes, the researchers report. Such reforms would include reducing the use of coal, oil and natural gas and improving treatment of land and water, the scientists said.

然而，报告指出，空气污染在地方层面是危险的。该研究发现了世界各地的问题“热点”地区，其中大部分来自气候变化。科学家说，地球上大约三分之二的地区不符合淡水供应的安全水平。 Joyeeta Gupta 是阿姆斯特丹大学地球委员会联合主席和环境学教授。她告诉记者，如果地球去体检，“我们的医生会说，地球现在真的病得很厉害，它……也影响到生活在地球上的人们。”但研究人员报告说，如果人们做出改变，地球就能恢复。科学家说，此类改革将包括减少煤炭、石油和天然气的使用，以及改善土地和水的处理。

But “we are moving in the wrong direction on basically all of these,” said study lead author Johan Rockstrom, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. The team of about 40 scientists created measurable boundaries for each environmental category. They decided the level where it is safe for the planet. The point at which it becomes harmful for groups of people, the researchers called a justice issue. Rockstrom said he thinks of those points as setting up “a safety fence’’ outside of which the risks become higher, but not necessarily disastrous. Rockstrom and other scientists have attempted in the past this type of measuring of Earth’s connected ecosystems. The big difference in this attempt is that scientists also looked at local and area levels and added the idea of justice.

但是，“我们基本上在所有这些方面都朝着错误的方向前进，”来自德国波茨坦气候影响研究所的研究主要作者 Johan Rockstrom 说。这个由大约 40 名科学家组成的团队为每个环境类别创建了可测量的界限。他们决定了地球安全的水平。研究人员称它对人群有害的程度称为正义问题。 Rockstrom 说，他认为这些要点是建立“安全围栏”，在围栏之外风险会更高，但不一定是灾难性的。 Rockstrom 和其他科学家过去曾尝试过对地球相连的生态系统进行这种测量。这次尝试的最大不同在于，科学家们还着眼于地方和地区层面，并加入了正义的理念。

The justice part includes fairness between young and old generations, different nations and even different species. Frequently, it applies to conditions that harm people more than the planet. An example of that is climate change. The report uses the same boundary of 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming that international leaders agreed upon in the 2015 Paris climate agreement. The world has so far warmed about 1.1 degrees Celsius so it has not crossed that safety fence, Rockstrom and Gupta said. But that does not mean people are not being hurt. “What we are trying to show through our paper is that even at 1 degree Centigrade there is a huge amount of damage taking place,” Gupta said. The planetary safety boundary of 1.5 degrees has not been reached. But the “just” boundary of 1 degree where people are hurt has been.

正义部分包括年轻一代和老一代之间、不同国家甚至不同物种之间的公平。通常，它适用于对人类的伤害大于对地球的伤害。这方面的一个例子是气候变化。该报告使用了国际领导人在 2015 年巴黎气候协议中商定的 1.5 摄氏度升温边界。 Rockstrom 和 Gupta 说，到目前为止，世界已经变暖了大约 1.1 摄氏度，因此还没有超过安全栅栏。但这并不意味着人们没有受到伤害。 “我们试图通过我们的论文表明，即使在 1 摄氏度时，也会发生巨大的破坏，”古普塔说。尚未达到 1.5 度的行星安全边界。但是人们受到伤害的 1 度的“公正”边界已经存在

Stanford environmental studies head Chris Field was not part of the research. He said he would want even more strict boundaries. “Sustainability and justice are inseparable,” he said.

斯坦福大学环境研究负责人克里斯菲尔德没有参与这项研究。他说他想要更严格的界限。 “可持续性和正义是密不可分的，”他说。