【T.E.D科普】经济泡沫是怎么形成的？

How much would you pay for a bouquet of tulips? A few dollars? $100? How about a million dollars? Probably not. Well, how much would you pay for this house or partial ownership of a website that sells pet supplies? At different points in time, tulips, real estate and stock in pets com have all sold for much more than they were worth. In each instance, the price rose and then abruptly plummeted. Economists call this a bubble. So what exactly is going on with a bubble? Well, let's start with the tulips to get a better idea.

你愿意花多少钱买一束郁金香?几美元?100美元?一百万美元怎么样?可能不会。你愿意出多少钱买这栋房子或者买一家宠物用品网站的部分所有权?在不同的时间点，郁金香、房地产和宠物网的股票都卖得比它们的价值高得多。在每一个例子中，价格都先是上涨，然后突然暴跌。经济学家称之为泡沫。那么泡沫到底是怎么回事呢?好吧，让我们从郁金香开始给你讲明白。

The 17th century saw the Netherlands enter the Dutch golden age. By the 16 30s, Amsterdam was an important port and commercial center. Dutch ships imported spices from Asia in huge quantities to earn profits in Europe. So Amsterdam was brimming with wealthy, skilled merchants and traders who displayed their prosperity by living in mansions surrounded by flower gardens.

17世纪，荷兰进入了他的黄金时代。到16世纪30年代，阿姆斯特丹成为一个重要的港口和商业中心。荷兰船只从亚洲大量进口香料，在欧洲赚取利润。因此，阿姆斯特丹到处都是富有的、熟练的商人，他们住在花园环绕的豪宅里，以此来展示自己的富有。有一种花的需求量特别高，那就是郁金香。

And there was one flower in particularly high demand, the tulip. The tulip was brought to Europe on trading vessels that sailed from the east. Because of this it was considered an exotic flower that was also difficult to grow since it could take years for a single tulip to bloom. During the 16 30s an outbreak of tulip breaking virus made select flowers even more beautiful by lining petals with multi color flame like streaks. A tulip like this was scarcer than a normal tulip and as a result, prices for these flowers started to rise and with them, the tulips popularity.

有一种花的需求量特别高，那就是郁金香。郁金香是由从东方航行的商船带到欧洲的。正因为如此，它被认为是一种代表异国风情的花，也很难种植，因为一朵郁金香可能需要几年的时间才能开花。在16世纪30年代，郁金香破裂病毒的爆发使精选的花朵更加美丽，花瓣上有多种颜色的火焰状条纹。像这样的郁金香比普通的郁金香稀缺，因此，这些花的价格开始上涨，随之而来的是郁金香的流行。

It wasn't long before the tulip became a nationwide sensation and tulip mania was born. A mania occurs when there is an upward movement of price combined with a willingness to pay large sums of money for something valued much lower in intrinsic value. A recent example of this is the com mania of the 19 90s. Stocks in new exciting websites were like the tulips of the 17th century. Everybody wanted some. The more people who wanted the tulip, the higher the price could go. At one point, a single tulip bulb sold for more than 10 times the annual salary of a skilled craftsman.

不久，郁金香在全国范围内引起轰动，郁金香狂热就此诞生。当价格上涨，同时又愿意花大价钱购买内在价值低得多的东西时，就会出现狂热。最近的一个例子是上世纪90年代的互联网狂热。令人兴奋的新互联网公司的股票就像17世纪的郁金香。每个人都想要一些。想要郁金香的人越多，价格就会越高。曾经一度，一个郁金香球茎的售价是一个熟练工匠年薪的10倍以上。

In the stock market, the price of stock is based on the supply and demand of investors. Stock prices tend to rise when it seems like a company will earn more in the future. Investors might then buy more of the stock, raising the prices even further due to an increased demand. This can result in a feedback loop where investors get caught up in the hype and ultimately drive prices far above intrinsic value, creating a bubble.

在股票市场上，股票的价格取决于投资者的供求关系。当一家公司看起来未来会赚得更多钱时，股价往往会上涨。投资者可能会购买更多的股票，由于需求增加，价格进一步上涨。这可能会导致一个反馈循环，投资者被炒作所吸引，最终推动价格远远高于内在价值，从而产生泡沫。

All that is needed for a mania to end and for a bubble to burst is the collective realization that the price of the stock, or a tulip, far exceeds its worth. That's what happened with both mania, suddenly the demand ended, prices were pushed to staggering lows, pop, the bubbles burst and the market crashed.

狂热要结束，泡沫就要破裂，所需要的就是大家都意识到，股票或郁金香的价格远远超过了它的价值。这就是两次狂热所发生的情况，需求突然消失，价格被砸到惊人的低点，泡沫破裂，市场崩溃。

Today, scholars work long and hard trying to predict what causes a bubble and how to avoid them. Tulip mania is an effective illustration of the underlying principles at work in a bubble and can help us understand more recent examples, like the real estate bubble of the late 2 thousands. The economy will continue to go through phases of booms and busts. While we wait for the next mania to start and the next bubble to burst, treat yourself to a bouquet of tulips and enjoy the fact that you didn't have to pay permanent leg for them.

如今，学者们花了很长时间努力预测泡沫的成因以及如何避免泡沫。郁金香狂热是泡沫中起作用的基本原理的有效例证，可以帮助我们理解最近的例子，比如2000年后期的房地产泡沫。经济将继续经历繁荣和萧条的阶段。在我们等待下一个狂热开始和下一个泡沫破裂的时候，请犒赏自己一束郁金香，享受你不必为它们支付永久费用的事实。