(双语文稿) 社交媒体上为什么总是容易抱团扯皮？

Transcript【译文见文末海报后】

All rise, the Twitter court of public opinion is now in session.

And the next case on the docket will reach a quick verdict. Because public opinion solidifies rapidly on Twitter. That's according to a study in the journal Chaos. [Fei Xiong and Yun Liu, Opinion formation on social media: An empirical approach]

Researchers collected almost 6 million tweets during a six-month period. They sorted the tweets for either positive or negative sentiments, then focused on three topics related to electronics.

At first opinions fluctuated, with one side gaining a slight advantage. This advantage grew gradually and then quickly leveled off, leaving one opinion in a stable and dominant position—but without an overwhelming consensus.

And once public opinion is established, it is unlikely to change. Only those who see a large number of dissenting opinions among the people they follow on Twitter will reconsider and examine the opposing viewpoint.

These results may offer a valuable lesson for companies, candidates and anyone else in the spotlight. If you plan to sway the jury, be sure to make your case early. Because once public opinion stabilizes, the jury is dismissed.

埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）收购推特案终于落幕，言论自由之争正式“开庭”。

如果这场争论发生在推特上，裁决结果不久就能浮出水面：根据一项发表在《混沌》（Chaos）杂志上的研究，当一个话题在推特上引爆后，用户会迅速找准队伍，站定自己的立场。研究人员在6个月内收集了大约600万条推文，按情绪表达分为“积极”和“消极”两大类，然后集中分析了三个涉及电子产品的话题。  

一开始人们的立场并不坚定，占多数的一方优势并不明显，但这种优势会逐渐扩大，然后迅速趋于平稳，其中一方会处于稳定且主导的地位，但也不会就此形成压倒性共识。而一旦公众舆论确立了，就基本不会再发生改变，只有发现自己关注的许多人都持反对意见时，一些人才会重新考虑变换观点。

对于公司和公众人物来说，这是非常宝贵的经验。如果你想影响“推特法庭”的宣判，你就得尽早提出观点，因为一旦公众找到了自己的队伍，“陪审团”就会迅速解散。