23#面对价格上涨，欧洲消费者悲观情绪加剧part 2

The latest Europe Consumer Pulse Survey shows an ongoing trend toward pessimism about economic recovery, coupled with widespread concern about inflation.

As COVID-19 lingers and the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to have deep human, social, and economic impacts, European consumers remain pessimistic about their economic prospects. McKinsey’s latest European Consumer Pulse Survey, carried out from September 23 to October 2, 2022, garnered the views of 1,000 respondents in each of France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. It confirms trends observed in our June survey—in particular, concern about inflation, which has been escalating since then. Consumer confidence remains low, worsening especially in Germany and France; downtrading behavior has intensified.

A few intriguing shifts are newly highlighted. While omnichannel persists, in some categories there is a movement back to more in-store shopping. Cooking from home and working from home are the most “sticky” behaviors stemming from COVID-19. More people are digging into their savings for routine purchases. And this year, not even the coming festive season is enough to coax shoppers to splurge.

The following charts illustrate our key findings:

Most people are concerned about rising prices. For 58 percent of European consumers, increasing prices are their number-one worry. This is followed by the invasion of Ukraine, extreme weather events, unemployment, and political uncertainty as important concerns.

Economic confidence has dipped. Consumer pessimism has inched higher, with 43 percent expressing doubt about economic recovery—up from 36 percent in June. This is much worse than even the first two years of COVID-19 (when pessimism peaked at 32 percent in May 2020). Responses vary by country, however, with net confidence declining by 22 percentage points in Germany and by ten percentage points in France, in contrast to unchanged confidence in the United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain.

Consumers are pulling back on spending and dipping into savings. Consumers are buying deliberately, exercising discernment about what they purchase. Nearly four in ten have reduced spending on nonfood discretionary items, up from a third in June, while over a third took out money from savings to cover typical expenses.

Consumers are opting for more affordable options. To stretch their wallet, three out of five consumers changed behaviors when shopping for groceries and essentials. Of these, almost three-quarters switched to lower-cost or private-label household products. Migration to discounters continued.

Most European consumers have no plans to treat themselves in the next three months, while only one-quarter plan on doing so in the near future. Almost seven in ten say they plan to shop less or not shop at all. Splurging is most often planned for travel and restaurants, with consumers in France, Spain, and the United Kingdom typically intending to splurge less than in other European countries.