熊市最重要的事（熊市生存20个建议）

今天分享一篇推特主@thedefiedge 在上周询问的加密老人的熊市生存建议，总共收到了有1300多条，他这里整理了20条出来。

接下来，为了避免翻译不准确，我将原文以及翻译一起分享如下（翻译一部分是来自于吴说区块链，一部分是温格区块链补充的）：

Last week, I asked OGs for advice on how to survive the bear market.I curated my favorites (out of 1300+) Some of the pieces of advice contradict each other. I want to show you different perspectives to help you build your own investment theses.

上周，我向 加密老人征求了如何在熊市中生存的建议。我精选了我喜欢的20条（从 1300 条中筛选的），有些建议是相互矛盾de 。但我想向您展示不同的观点，以帮助您建立自己的投资理论。

/1 Develop a Skill 

@Darrenlautf recommends learning to code. He runs a job board and sees that 90% of the demand is for developers. Learn and Build - don't just sit around waiting for the next few years. It's 2022, and you can learn for free online.

1、发展一项技能

如编程，目前币圈对开发者的需求很大。去学习和建设——不要只是坐等未来。现在是 2022 年，您可以在线免费学习。

/2 Don't Compare Directly to 2018 

Most projects during 2018 were scams and white papers. The protocols now are much more mature.There's > $140b locked up in DeFi, and some protocols are generating millions.

2、不要直接拿 2018 年熊市与本轮熊市做对比

这两个阶段，行业基本面已经截然不同。2018 年的大多数项目都是骗局和白皮书。而现在的项目不再是纸上谈兵，已经有实际应用以及现金流收入。

/3 Prepare for Financial Collapse? 

Most of us are young and have never been through a macro environment this bad before.Inflation's at a 40-year high. Do you have a plan if we're going into financial collapse?Things can turn much worse.

3，做好应对金融危机的准备

当前糟糕的宏观局势是史无前例的。我们大多数人都很年轻，以前从未经历过如此糟糕的宏观环境。通货膨胀处于 40 年来的最高点。如果我们陷入金融崩溃，你有预案吗？

/4 Most Coins Will Never Hit ATHs Again 

Projects run out of funding. Developers get bored and disappear. Or new projects come and take the shine away from your bags.Most 2017 coins never recovered to their ATHs.

4， 大多数硬币将永远不会再次回到前高。

项目资金耗尽，开发人员感到无聊并消失。注意在熊市一些新项目的上线，会消耗你的仓位。大多数 在2017年的诞生的代币从未恢复到前高。

/5 Maybe You Shouldn't Sell Your Bags 

This depends on which projects you're invested in.I held my BNB / VeChain bags through 2018 Crypto Winter, and they eventually.Warning: Sunk cost bias, Survivorship bias, Anecdotal evidence. Still mooned.

5，不要轻易卖出你的持仓

这取决于你的投资标的，有的下一轮能够一飞冲天，有的可能会销声匿迹， 2018年我持有了BNB / VeChain，结果起飞了。

/6 Adjust Your Theses 

Every cycle has its darlings • 2017: EOS, NEO, XRP • 2020: DeFi 1.0 Protocols They do well in their main cycles but fail to keep up the momentum in the later cycles.The metagame changes or they get out-innovated.

6，调整你的投资理论

每个周期都有各自的热门代币，如 2017~18 年的 EOS、2020 年的 DeFi 1.0 协议，在属于它们的时代，他们是 Alpha，但后来都是拖后腿的。要注意每个周期叙事玩法的变化。

/7 Pay Attention to the Builders 

Who's still shipping and iterating their products? Who's still engaging with their community?

7、关注那些在熊市依旧持续建设的人

看看谁还在迭代它们的产品？谁仍在和他的社区在互动？

/8 Invest In Your Health and Friendships 

You probably sacrificed a lot during the bull cycle. Some things are more important than money such as relationships and health.Use this period as a chance to strengthen those areas.

8、投资自己的健康和友谊。

你可能在牛市周期中牺牲了很多，但是有些事情比金钱更重要，例如人际关系和健康。利用这段时间加强这些领域。

/9 Don't Over Estimate Huge APRs 

We tend to overestimate large APRs coming from inflationary tokens.The 200% APR doesn't matter if the token's value drops by 95%.Open a spreadsheet and play with different scenarios.

9，不要高估高收益率的作用

我们倾向于高估来自通胀代币的高的 APR。若代币价格跌了 95%，那 200% 的APR也无济于事。

/10 Improve Your Investing Formula 

Whether you realize it or not, you have an investing algorithm in your head. Sit down and reflect. Write down your rules and principles.Be real with yourself, or you'll make the same mistakes in the next cycle.

10，优化你的投资体系

不管你是否意识到，你脑子里都有一个投资算法。坐下来反思。写下你的规则和原则。做真实的自己，否则你会在下一周期，你会犯同样的错误。

/11 Survival First 

Lower and cut all your expenses.You don't need 5 different streaming services.My friend is using this opportunity to become a digital nomad and live in cheaper countries.

11，生存第一

降低和削减你所有的开支。您不需要 5 种不同的流媒体服务。我的朋友正在利用这个机会成为一名数字游牧民族并生活在更便宜的国家。

/12 Wait Before Buying 

Rabbit recommends waiting a year before buying Crypto. They believe it can take a while before we hit the bottom. Others believe in not trying to time the bottom, and just buying every month (dollar cost average)

12，不要急着抄底。

Rabbit 建议在购买 Crypto 之前等待一年。他们认为，在我们触底之前可能需要一段时间。其他人则认为不要试图买在底部，而采用每月购买（平均成本）。

/13 Prepare for New Metas 

The next cycle's most valuable protocols might not even be in existence yet. You'll be late to them if you lose interest in the markets now. Get in early and make sure to take profits.

13，勇敢拥抱新叙事

下轮牛市最有价值的协议可能还没有出现，勇敢探索拥抱新叙事。如果你现在对市场失去兴趣而离开，等牛市来了可能就来不及了。

/14 Don't Fight the Fed 

Right now Crypto's tied to the Fed's monetary policy.

Printer go brrrrrrr = 

Printer turns off =

Pay attention to how the Fed's fighting inflation and controlling the money supply. Don't fight against it.

14，不要跟美联储对着干

目前币圈与美联储的货币政策紧密相关，印钱看多，抽水看空，留意美联储应对通胀以及货币供应的政策。

/15 Find a Hobby 

It pays to be patient.In the meantime, go out and enjoy life. I'll be doing a lot of traveling and actually looking to pick up rock climbing. What hobbies are you going to pick up?

15，培养一种兴趣爱好

培养耐心是值得的。与此同时，要多多去旅行，我要学会攀岩，你准备培养什么爱好呢？

/16 Build an Extra Income 

Stream More money coming in means more dry powder to buy the dips.

16，打造一门额外的收入流，就有更多的钱抄底。

/17 Don't Try to Beat the Market 

I'm sure some people will try to trade the market via margin trading or shorting.Don't - easy to get wrecked.Most people should dollar-cost average into blue chips.

17，不要尝试战胜市场：例如高频玩多空合约。

/18 Sales Everywhere If it's a great project, then you're able to buy it now at a discount.The key is predicting which ones can survive the bear market and reach ATHs again.That's hard - most people should stick to buying BTC / ETH.

18，认真研究挑选投资标的

在熊市，你可以折扣价买到好标的，前提是你有识别好标的的能力，不然的话还是老老实实买 BTC\ ETH。

/19 Which Projects Will Last?

Bet on the ones that solve real problems in a way that their competitors can't.Bear markets feel horrible, but they're healthy for the ecosystem. They shed off all the dead weight.

19，押注赛道龙头

熊市是可怕的，但是对于那些真切解决问题的项目来说，却也是好事，因为退潮时才知道谁在裸泳。

/20 Beat ETH / BTC Your goal should be to outperform ETH and BTC as an investor.So measure your portfolio in those rather than USD. If you don't think you can, then it's easier just to buy ETC / BTC and save yourself all the stress.

20，跑赢 BTC & ETH

作为投资者，你的目标是寻找能跑赢这两者的币种，如果找不到，那就购买BTC和ETH吧。

全文完。