Susan三叶草 2021年12月25日 上午8:40

And who wouldn't want the ability to call her father in Baltimore when she stands triumphant on top of Mount Everest?
Iridium had access to some world-class expertise and had overcome some seemingly insurmountable hurdles.But there were some fundamental flaws in Iridium's strategy. Simply running through the exercise of “What assumptions need to prove true?” in order for the financial model of Iridium to work would have surfaced these issues.One of these was that customers needed to get comfortable carrying a handset in a briefcase,not a pocket or purse— because it weighed a pound.This was because it needed a big battery, to boost its signal to a satellite, not a local tower. An additional assumption that needed to prove true was that while the signal from the top of Everest to the nearest satellite was likely to be clear, Dad needed to be outside in Baltimore to receive his daughter's call—there could not be a roof creating interference between Dad and the satellite; and so on.
But after $6 billion in investment and less than a year after that first phone call was placed,the company was forced to admit defeat and declare bankruptcy.Iridium didn't emerge from bankruptcy for a decade and investors lost their shirts.After winding its way through Chapter 11,Iridium was sold to a new group of investors for $25 million—a fire-sale price.
Why did the executives of Motorola and its co-investors fuel so much capital into such a risky venture? The theory that we call“good money and bad money”offers an answer.
当胜利地站在珠穆朗玛峰上时，谁不想能够给巴尔的摩的父亲打电话呢？
铱星拥有了一些世界级的专业知识，并克服了一些看似不可逾越的障碍。但铱星的战略存在一些根本性的缺陷。简单地通过运用“什么假设需要证明是真的？”就得到了铱星的财务支持，同时这些问题也浮出了水面。其中之一是，顾客要把手机放在公文包里才舒服，而不是放在口袋或钱包里——因为它有一磅重。因为它需要一个大电池来将信号传送给卫星，而不是当地的发射塔。需要解决的另一个问题是，虽然从珠穆朗玛峰顶端到最近的卫星的信号很可能是清晰的，但爸爸需要在巴尔的摩的家，外面的空地才能接到女儿的电话——不能让屋顶在爸爸和卫星之间产生干扰等等各种问题。
在60亿美元的投资和第一通电话打后不到一年，该公司被迫承认失败并宣布破产。铱星公司在10年内没有从破产中走出来，投资者赔得倾家荡产。在完成了第11章之后，铱星以2500万美元的大甩卖的价格卖给了一批新的投资者。
为什么摩托罗拉的高管及其投资者会为如此高风险的投资注入如此多的资本？我们称之为“好钱和坏钱”的理论会提供答案的。