瑞·达利欧：人民币将成为储备货币，速度超出预期

Ray Dalio: Yuan Will be a Reserve Currency Faster Than Expected

I was browsingthrough your book and obviously he looked back. At the last five hundred years.It was the currency of the super power in place that was a reserve currencyback in the nineteen thirties last century couple of law. but a hundred yearsago it was sterling than he went to the U. S dollar. How does that all informedme of what happens to be you as dollar next? While the sequences is very clearof the first thing happens is that you put a lot of credit, a lot of debt and alot of money and its values it relative to other assets. So if you look back inthe nineteen thirty, three eyes, I said March five, thousand, nine, thousand,nine hundred and ninety. Or if you look back throughout history, that move putsmoney into the system, the values the currency and causes stocks, gold andother reinflation assets to go up. So that's what we're seeing. And so when youlook at history of those three major currency empires, the Dutch and the Dutchguilder in and they followed by the bridge British and the British pound andthe U. S and the U. S dollar and now and they have to do with which are thelargest trading gun countries because they bring their money around the world.And there's that cycle. And that cycle now is having China is now the largesttrading country. and you're starting to see the development of capital marketsin China that are open to foreign investors. You're starting to see you willsee the internationalization of the renminbi. you will see opening capitalmarket. you'll see the development of the financial center. that is all part ofthat pattern that's happened over and over again. I don't believe they run andthey will be a viable reserve currency. Ah quickly, but I do believe it willhappen much faster than anybody expects. So if we were to take the next fiveyears, the question is, what is the store hold of wealth in the meantime, andthat's why you are seeing the movement into other financial assets and onething that constantly comes up. We know where the world looking to start increasingtheir exposure to China. I mean, it's an issue with some. It's not an issuewith everybody. Is the debt issue, an obviously part of the progress. There hasbeen a decent amount of debt that's been built up. Do you think Ray China has adebt problem? The basic rule of a debt problem is it? Is it in your owncurrency or not? If it's in your own currency, there are lots of ways ofdealing with it. You know you aren't, You can restructure it. You can monetizeit. If you take a dad typical, write down of that is something like thirty orforty per cent. If you take that debt, you put it on the government's balancesheet and you write it down at two per cent a year. It's not a problem yourenegotiate the industrious rate. If you can control it in your own currency,it's all manageable. If Japan is a good example of that, so no, I don't believethat it has an unmanageable debt situation. Do you think the policymakingstructure one party system to a large extent the low risk that policy does notchange every couple of years? Do you think that sets China against Chinaadvantage over the United States? It certainly means. It certainly has a lot ofbenefits right. it has the benefit of them. First of all, you that they canhire for quality leadership on it's not a random popularity contest and thenits rotten, I would say like a company's run, you know it is a big corporation.Has the leadership and that process being run, and so it does lend itself.Let's say a handling called it, for example, was, I think exemplified theability to have water have behaviors. People are not fighting with each otherand it becomes as disorderly as a democracy in conflict periods or stressfulperiods. There are those advantages, but like Plato pointed out, there arethese cycles you know, and over a long period of time, no system lasts forever.You mentioned earlier that the world is structurally under way. China, how doyou make that work, and how do you make that work without oversteppingobviously into parts of the market that perhaps in China that aren't as matureYet? When I look at China and the opening up of the markets, I do know that Ihave to have a significant portion of my portfolio there. Just like I have tohave a significant fortune in the United States and so on. But the interestrate differentials are favorable, the growth rate differentials of favorable abig element is going to be ordered on internal water. So far that's prettyfavorable, so when I look at it, it's that element of diversification and thenmakes a comparison. I'd much rather have own. For example, Chinese bonds thanto own the response, the currency. I think you're going to have favorablecapital flows as they open up. So for those reasons, tactically, as well asdiversification was, I would do that. But it's not just in China and the UnitedStates is all world out there in the Asia Pacific region.

我在浏览你的书，显然他回头看了。在过去的五百年里。它是超级大国的货币在上个世纪三十年代是储备货币。但是在一百年前，它是英镑然后是美元。这一切是如何告诉我接下来美元会怎么样。虽然序列很清楚，但第一件事是你放了很多信用，很多债务，很多钱，以及它相对于其他资产的价值。所以如果你回顾1930年，三只眼睛，我说的是三月五号，千，九个千，九百九十。如果你回顾历史，这一举措为系统注入了资金，货币的价值和股票的成因，黄金和其他再通货膨胀资产将上涨。这就是我们看到的。所以当你回顾三大货币帝国的历史时，荷兰和荷兰盾紧随其后的是桥英国英镑和美国美元。他们和最大的军火贸易国家有关系，因为他们把钱带到世界各地。这就是这个循环。在这个周期中，中国现在是最大的贸易国。你开始看到中国资本市场向外国投资者开放的发展。你将开始看到你将看到人民币的国际化。你会看到开放的资本市场。你会看到金融中心的发展情况。这些都是那种反复发生的模式的一部分。我不相信它们会成为一种可行的储备货币。很快啊，但我确实相信，这将比任何人预期的都要快得多。所以如果我们在接下来的五年里，问题是，在此期间，财富的储存是什么呢？这就是为什么你会看到人们转向其他金融资产和一个不断出现的东西。我们知道世界在哪里开始增加对中国的接触。我的意思是，这是一些人的问题。这不是每个人的问题。就是债务问题，这显然是进步的一部分。已经积累了相当数量的债务。雷，你认为中国有债务问题吗？债务问题的基本规则是吗？它是不是用你自己的货币？如果是用你自己的货币，有很多方法可以解决这个问题。你知道你不是，你可以重组它。你可以把它货币化。如果你以典型的父亲为例，大概是百分之三十到四十。如果你欠下那笔债你把它记在政府的资产负债表上，然后以每年2%的利率减记。这不是你重新协商勤奋率的问题。如果你能用自己的货币来控制，都是可控的。如果日本是一个很好的例子，所以，我不认为它有无法控制的债务状况。你认为一党制的政策制定结构在很大程度上是低风险的，政策不改变每两年？你认为这会使中国对美国具有优势吗？它肯定的意思。它当然有很多好处。它有他们的好处。首先，这不是一场随机的人气竞赛，然后就腐烂了，我想说，就像一个公司的运营，你知道这是一家大公司。有领导，有流程，所以它确实可以借出自己。我们说一个处理叫做，例如，是，我认为这证明了水有行为的能力。人们不再相互争斗，它变得像冲突时期或紧张时期的民主一样无序。这些都是优点，但就像柏拉图指出的，有这样的循环，在很长一段时间里，没有一个系统是永恒的。你刚才提到，世界正在结构上进行。中国你是怎么做到的，你如何做到这一点，而又不明显地越过中国尚未成熟的市场领域？当我看到中国和市场的开放，我知道我的投资组合中必须有很大一部分在那里。就像我必须在美国有一大笔财富，等等。但利率差异是有利的，有利大元素在内水上的生长速率差是有序的。到目前为止还不错，所以当我看着它的时候，这就是多样化的因素，然后做一个比较。我更想要自己的。例如，中国债券比自己的回应要好的货币。我认为随着它们的开放，将会出现有利的资本流动。由于这些原因，从战术上讲，除了多样化，我会这么做的。但不仅仅是中国和美国，整个亚太地区都是如此。