CDC's Coronavirus Worst-Case Scenario Is Terrifying

- Over the past two months,
a novel（新的） coronavirus,
which causes a disease
officially known as COVID-19,
has turned life upside down all over the world.
People are self-isolating,
businesses are closing,
the global market is falling,
and many people are dying.
One of the biggest challenges of this pandemic
is the lack of information about the virus.
Very few things are known for sure,
and what is known is already very scary.
Experts around the world
have been regularly meeting
to discuss and plan for scenarios（情景）
based on previous outbreaks.
As reported by the "New York Times,"
a phone conference among epidemic experts
has shed some light on（阐明） what 
we may be able to expect
in a truly worst-case scenario.
On the call, Matthew
Biggerstaff, an epidemiologist（流行病学家）
at the CDC, laid out  multiple scenarios
for the future of the virus.
First is the question of the number of infections.
Experts believe that communities have been late
to take preventative measures.
The virus can be spread (person coughing)
through direct contact with an open carrier,
but also, and less commonly,
through asymptomatic（无症状的） shedding,
as well as casual contact, and even contact
with a surface that someone with the virus
has already infected.
Because of the asymptomatic
nature of the virus in younger, healthier people,
by the time there has been a death from the virus,
many, many people will 

have already contracted(感染) it and passed it on.
The CDC estimates that
each infected person
could infect between two
and three more people.
At this rate, and without
further restrictions,
there is a projection(推断) that
the number of infections
in the United States could
range as high as 214 million,
or 2/3 of the nation.
However, the number of infections
does not necessarily determine
the severity of symptoms.
As has been demonstrated so far in China, Italy,
and other countries hit hardest by the virus,
many carriers who show
symptoms will have mild cases.
While these are still very serious and debilitating(使人非常虚弱),
mild has been used to mean
not requiring hospitalization.
This is why current guidelines suggest
that those who feel ill, but do not require
immediate hospitalization,
should stay home and self-isolate to help
prevent hospital overrun
and further spread of the virus.
The CDC model's worst-case scenario
is a hospitalization rate of
12 percent of infected people.
By comparison, the hospitalization rate for the flu
is approximately 52 out of 100,000 infections,
or half of 1 percent.
For the U.S. healthcare system,
this would be a massive problem.
Hospitals around the country
are absolutely not prepared
to treat, at worst, 25 million patients
within a short time period.
Although exact figures on
COVID-19's mortality rate（病死率）
are difficult to calculate due
to the lack of mass testing,
early studies have shown
that the virus is deadlier for people with high-risk
factors like respiratory problems
or diabetes, as well as those over the age of 65,
and especially those over the age of 80.
According to the CDC's estimates,
in a worst-case scenario,
up to 1.7 million people
could potentially die from
COVID-19 in the United States.
These numbers are truly terrifying,
however, it's important to note
that they're based on a world where nobody
is taking precautions and
governments are inactive.
This is not the case.
Around the world, and in many
parts of the United States,
people are actively self-quarantining,
businesses are making huge efforts to encourage
social distancing, scientists
are working around the clock
on vaccines（疫苗） and treatments,
and manufacturers are producing massive 
amounts of sanitizer(消毒剂) and medical ventilators（呼吸机）.
It has taken some time for the
seriousness of the situation
to penetrate（穿透） the social consciousness,
but as people act more appropriately,
the rates of infection,
hospitalization, and death
should hopefully fall well below
these worst-case projections.