【原版杂志阅读】Day 19:《The economist》China’s growth

讲义：

China’s growth

The greatest moderation

Has any country ever grown asrepetitively as China?

ON OCTOBER 19th China reported that itseconomy grew by 6.7% in the third quarter. It would have been an unsurprising,reassuring headline, except that China had reported exactly the same figure forthe previous quarter—and for the quarter before that. This freakish consistencyinvited the scorn of China’s many “data doubters”, who have long argued that itfudges its figures. China has expanded at the same pace from one quarter to thenext on numerous occasions. But it has never before claimed to grow at exactlythe same rate for three quarters in a row.

Has anywhere? This growth “three-peat” is notentirely without precedent. Seven other countries have reported the same growthrate for three quarters in a row, according to a database spanning 83 countriessince 1993, compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit, our sister company.The list includes emerging economies like Brazil, Croatia, Indonesia, Malaysiaand Vietnam, but also two mature economies: Austria and Spain. Indeed, Spainhas performed this miracle of consistency twice. It grew by 3.1% (year-on-year)in the first three quarters of 2003 and by 4.2% in the first three quarters of2006. Those were the days.

Contrary to popular belief, China’s GDPstatistics have not always been unusually smooth. Since 1993, the average gapbetween one quarter’s growth and the next has been (plus or minus) 0.77percentage points (see table). Fourteen countries, including America, havereported a smaller average gap. But in recent years, the zigzags in China’sgrowth have been less pronounced. Since 2012 only France and Jordan haveenjoyed more stable growth (as measured by statistical variance, a commonmeasure of volatility) and only Indonesia has recorded a smaller average gapbetween one quarter’s growth and the next.

词汇部分

1.        consistency /kənˈsɪs.tən.si/ n. 连贯性

英文释义：the physical nature ofa substance, especially a thick liquid,for example by being thick or thin, smooth or lumpy,etc.

词汇助记：

1）前缀：con-全部，共同，所有

2）词根：sist- 站立

3）后缀：-ency 名词后缀

4）扩展：resist v. 抵抗

2.        scorn /skɔːrn/ n. 鄙视，轻蔑

英文释义：a very strong feeling of no respect for someone or something that you think is stupid orhas no value:

词汇助记：对比记忆 (scorn/porn/horn)

1）字母组合：-orn

2）首辅音：sc ( s死＋cry/call 喊)

3.        fudge /fʌdʒ/ v. 篡改

英文释义：to avoid makinga decision or giving a clear answer aboutsomething:

词汇助记：——连想法

fudge –fud + ge 服的哥。

4.        zigzag /ˈzɪɡ.zæɡ/ z字形状

英文释义：a line or pattern that looks likea Z or a row of Zs joined together:

词汇助记：

1）zig 急转弯

2）zag 急转弯

5.        volatility /ˌvɑː.ləˈtɪl.ə.t̬i/n. 挥发性

词汇助记：
1）词根：vol- 转动

2）后缀：-atility 复合名词后缀

3）扩展：volume 卷

二、句子理解

1. Contrary to popular belief, China’s GDPstatistics have not always been unusually smooth.

知识点：形容词短语做状语

l   结构：形容词短语，句子。

l   特点：形容词短语做状语，修饰位于谓语动词。

例句：Tired and exhausted, Peter fell asleep quickly. 因为非常累和疲惫，皮特很快睡着了。

参考翻译：与普遍看法相反，中国的GDP 统计数字并不总是异乎寻常的平缓。

2. 第一段知识梳理。

三、全文翻译

10月19日，中国公布第三季度经济增速为6.7%。这原本会是一个意料之中，令人欣慰的标题，只是中国上个季度以及再上个季度都公布了完全相同的增长数字。这种异乎寻常的一致遭到了中国许多“数据怀疑论者”的鄙视。这些人一致认为中国在数字上弄虚作假。中国已经有很多次连续两个季度增速相同了。但此前它还未连续三个季度都公布完全相同的增速。

其他地方有过类似的情况吗？这种增速“三联同“并非没有县里。根据本刊的姐妹公司经济学人之苦（EIU）始于1993年、涵盖83哥国家爱的数据库，另有七个国家曾报告过连续三个季度都相同的经济增速。它们包括巴西、克罗地亚、印度尼西亚、马拉西亚和越南等新兴经济体，但也包括奥地利和西拔牙这两个成熟经济体。事实上，西班牙已经创造过两次这种一致性的奇迹。它再2003年前三个季度的同比增长为3.1%,2006年前三个季度则增长4.2%。那真是一段美好的时光。

与普遍看法相反，中国的GDP 统计数字并不总是异乎寻常的平缓。1993年以来，两个季度增速之间的平均差为（正／负）0.77个百分点（见图表）。美国等14个国家公布的增速平均差均小于这一数字。但近年来，中国的之字形增长已经不在明显。2012年以来，只有法国和约旦享有比中国更稳定的增长（用一种衡量波动性的常用方法，即统计方差来测量），而且只有印尼录得过比中国更小的季度增速平均差。