Tech should not make life worse 科技不应让生活变差

In the primitive old days before technology, I used to dispose of my daily coffee cup by throwing it in a trash can.  But, there has been progress on this front.  China Daily has installed a high-tech trash disposal machine, maybe it should be called a robot, where we can throw our coffee cups.  It’s about the size of a large washer-dryer combo and, I guess, has some kind of AI routine for sorting different kinds of trash for recycling.

在过去生活条件简陋、科技不发达的日子里，每日喝完的咖啡杯常常被我扔进垃圾桶里。但是，现在这种情况有所改变了。中国日报社安装了一台高科技的垃圾处理器，或许应该称它为机器人，我们可以把咖啡杯扔给它。这台机器大小约为一台大型洗烘一体机。我猜想它拥有某种人工智能程序，用来处理不同的垃圾，以便回收利用。

The problem is that I can’t figure out how to open it.  There is a tablet-sized screen that shows where to download a mobile phone app that you can use to control the machine.  My Chinese language reading skills aren’t great, so it would take me a long time to decipher all the commands.  I’m trying to cut back on coffee habit, but any cups I do use are now tossed into the trash bin in the bathroom.

问题是我不知道如何开启这台垃圾处理器。机器上有一个平板大小的屏幕，显示应该下载一个手机应用来控制此机器。我的汉语阅读能力不佳，因此费了很长时间才弄懂这些指令。我正试着少喝咖啡，而我用的所有杯子现在已扔进了浴室的垃圾桶里了。

But, even if it were in English, I don’t see the advantage.  Before using the device, I would have to download one more app onto my phone.  In the lucky event that goes smoothly, then I would have to learn the app’s user interface.  More importantly, I would have to use limited available space in my brain to try to remember how to do that each time I want to use it.

但是，即便指令是英文，我也看不到有什么优势。在使用垃圾处理器之前，我需要在手机上再下载一个应用。如果安装顺利，我还得学习使用这个应用。更重要的是，我要被迫利用我有限的脑容量，记住每次使用它时该如何去做。

Of course, the machine could conceivably be good for the environment because it somehow sorts different kinds of trash so that it is more easily recyclable.  But, I doubt that there will be a net improvement if you take into account the energy, metals, and other resources used to build and deliver the machine.

当然，垃圾处理器本该对环境是有益的，因为它将各种垃圾分类，使之更方便回收利用。但是，如果考虑到制作和运输垃圾处理器消耗的能源、金属等各种资源，我怀疑是否总体上真的改善了环境。

Economist Robert Solow famously quipped in 1987 that “we can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics” after observing that huge investments in computerization happened at the same time US productivity growth was at a historic low.  Since then, the internet, smart phones, and other types of IT have doubtless made our lives somewhat more convenient.  I can call my mother in the US more conveniently and much cheaper than I could have even ten years ago.  A lot of waste has been eliminated from some business processes and worldwide competition has made many goods cheaper for consumers.  And, some entirely new products that make life better, such as rental bikes in Beijing, are made possible by the technology.

1987年，经济学家罗伯特·索洛（Robert Solow）注意到，各行各业实现计算机化过程获得巨额投资的同时，美国生产率增长却创了历史新低，之后他说了一句著名的嘲讽，“电脑时代无处不在，唯独在生产率报表中不见”。自那以后，互联网、智能手机等各种科技产品无疑使我们的生活变得更方便了。我跟远在美国的母亲打电话，比十年前更为方便也更便宜。商业流程中已经减少了大量的浪费，全球竞争使得大量商品更便宜。另外，诸如北京的共享单车等新产品让生活变得更加美好，而这些崭新的产品都得益于科技发展。

On the other hand, anybody who has ever worked in any organization that is trying to implement a new software program knows that productivity increases are a distant dream.  And, humans are easily addicted to time-wasting video games or chat streams.

另一方面，所有在机构中工作过，并尝试过实施新软件程序的人都了解，提高生产率是很困难的。人类很容易对耗时的电子游戏或聊天软件上瘾。

Perhaps ironically, the IT revolution, which was supposed to spur a highly competitive entrepreneurial economy has, in fact, led to increased monopolization of the US economy as the tech giants consolidate their positions of power.  To protect their politica position, they have recently become the biggest spenders on lobbyists in Washington.  The rate of new business start-ups in the US is at an all time low.  This concentration of economic power has led to an increase in wealth of the top 10%, while the incomes of the rest of the population have, at best, stagnated.

或许有些讽刺，信息技术革命本该刺激创新型经济开展激烈竞争，然而实际上，随着各大科技巨头巩固他们的权力地位，美国经济愈发的垄断。各大科技巨头为保护他们的地位，最近已成为华盛顿游说团体背后花钱最多的幕后支持者。美国新开的创业公司比率已降至历史最低点。经济权力高度集中，使得美国财富值前10%的群体拥有更多的财富，而剩余90%人群的收入充其量也是停滞无增长。

There were blips of increased US productivity growth in the late ‘90s and in 2003-2007, but it has been back down to very slow growth since the 2008 financial crisis.  There is now a lot of talk about the impact of robotics or the internet-of-things on productivity, but a recent study by Robert Josefsson, an economist at the Swedish data firm Macrobond, calculates that the total IT impact on US productivity has been so low as to almost be unmeasurable for the last decade.

虽然在上世纪90年代以及2003-2007年，美国的生产率增长有所加快，但是自2008年金融危机以后，其生产率又回落至低增长状态。如今，关于机器人技术和物联网对生产率的影响有很多讨论，但是瑞典数据公司Macrobond的经济学家罗伯特•约瑟夫松（Robert Josefsson）计算出信息技术对美国生产率的总体影响非常之低，乃至于几乎无法测量其过去十年的影响。

Of course, there are many scholars and policy-makers who believe the problem could be the opposite.  Robotics and AI could make a few people so productive that there are few job opportunities available for average people.

当然，也有许多学者和决策者认为问题恰恰相反。机器人技术和人工智能会让小部分人生产率大幅提高，使得普通人的工作机会所剩无几。

I was very glad to see recent reports that Alibaba has established a new think tank, called the Luohan Academy, that brings together leading scholars from around the world to study the impact of tech on society.  I hope they are able to consider the impacts on everyone, not just a global elite.  Getting this right is one of the most important issues facing the world.

我很高兴看到最近报道上说，阿里巴巴集团成立了一个新智库，叫做“罗汉堂”。罗汉堂汇集了世界各地的顶尖学者，致力于研究科技对社会的影响。我希望他们能够考虑科技对所有人的影响，而非只是对全球精英的影响。解决这个问题是世界面临的最重要的问题之一。