英语新闻丨Shift in policy to strengthen nation's growth

China's economic growth is expected to strengthen on a sequential basis amid the latest stimulus package and with more incremental policies in the pipeline, translating into over 5 percent year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter, analysts and economists said on Sunday.

10月13日，分析人士和经济学家表示，在最新的经济刺激计划和一揽子增量政策的推动下，中国经济增长有望连续走强，第四季度同比增长将超过5%。

They said a long-awaited policy shift is unfolding for China's economy and markets, as policymakers have pledged to strengthen countercyclical adjustment and step up fiscal policy support. This will include the largest debt resolution support in recent years, with a particular focus on addressing pressing challenges such as the prolonged housing downturn, debt issues and sluggish domestic demand.

他们认为，由于决策者宣布加强逆周期调节、加大财政政策支持力度，中国经济和市场正在发生期待已久的政策转变。这将包括近年来最大规模的债务化解支持，尤其是重点解决住房长期低迷、债务问题和内需不振等紧迫挑战。

Their comments came as data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Sunday that China's consumer prices rose at a slower pace in September, while the decline in factory gate prices continued, pointing to pressures on the world's second-largest economy and intensifying the need to roll out more incremental policies.

国家统计局13日公布的数据显示，9月份中国居民消费价格涨幅放缓，出厂价格继续下降，这表明中国作为世界第二大经济体面临的压力，更有必要推出更多增量政策。

The country's consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, rose 0.4 percent year-on-year in September, compared with a 0.6 percent increase in August. The producer price index, which gauges factory gate prices, dropped 2.8 percent last month, widening from a 1.8 percent fall in August, the NBS said.

国家统计局称，作为衡量通货膨胀的主要指标，9月份全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.4%，而8月份的涨幅为0.6%；工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）上个月下降2.8%，降幅比8月份的1.8%有所扩大。

"The slower CPI growth in September was mainly due to still-weak domestic demand, seasonal factors and the high comparison base in the previous year, while the deeper PPI drop was influenced by falling commodity prices, especially in the energy sector," said Zhou Maohua, a researcher at China Everbright Bank.

光大银行研究员周茂华表示：“9月份CPI增速放缓的主要原因是国内需求依然疲软、季节性因素和去年对比基数较高，而PPI降幅加深则是受大宗商品价格下跌，尤其是能源行业的影响。”

Shen Bing, director-general and a senior research fellow at the market and price research institute of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, said the growth in CPI is expected to register a mild recovery while maintaining overall stability in the fourth quarter of the year.

中国宏观经济研究院市场与价格研究所所长、高级研究员申兵表示，预计今年第四季度CPI增速将在保持总体稳定的基础上温和回升。

This is because consumer demand has shown signs of pickup, with the sales of passenger vehicles and home appliances having improved, a trend that would be consolidated upon the implementation of incremental policies to expand domestic demand, Shen said.

申兵解释，这是因为消费需求出现了回暖迹象，乘用车和家电的销售都有所改善，这一趋势将在扩大内需的增量政策实施后得到巩固。

On Saturday, the Ministry of Finance announced plans to soon introduce a comprehensive package of new targeted policy measures, with a key focus on improving the financial situations of local governments, facilitating the stabilization of a bottomed out property market, and enhancing the risk resilience and credit allocation capabilities of major banks, among other things.

10月12日，财政部宣布将在近期推出一揽子有针对性的增量政策举措，重点是改善地方政府财政状况，支持推动房地产市场止跌回稳，以及提升大型银行抵御风险和信贷投放能力等。

The ministry said there is still ample room for the central government to borrow and increase its deficit. It plans to enhance the large-scale debt limit at once, replace the hidden debt of local governments, and increase support for local governments to resolve debt risks.

财政部表示，中央财政还有较大的举债空间和赤字提升空间，拟一次性增加较大规模债务限额置换地方政府存量隐性债务，加大力度支持地方化解债务风险。

Chang Haizhong, executive director of corporates at rating agency Fitch Bohua, said this policy is the largest supportive debt measure introduced in recent years and will greatly alleviate the pressure on local governments.

评级公司惠誉博华工商企业部执行总监常海中表示，这一政策是近年来出台的最大的支持性债务措施，将大大缓解地方政府的压力。

"It is expected that the hidden debt of local governments may be replaced in large part by increasing the issuance of treasury bonds in the future," he said.

常海中说：“预计今后地方政府的隐性债务可能会在很大程度上通过增发国债来置换。”

According to Chang, the current economic growth is under pressure and fiscal revenue is lower than expected, making some local governments more stretched financially.

常海中认为，当前经济增长压力较大，财政收入低于预期，使得一些地方政府财政更加紧张。

"Once implemented, this policy will substantially reduce local fiscal pressure, unleashing fiscal funds for economic development and ensuring people's livelihoods. At the same time, the balance sheets of local government financing vehicles will also be strengthened," he said.

“这一政策一旦实施，将大幅减轻地方财政压力，释放财政资金用于经济发展和保障民生。同时，地方政府资产负债表也将得到改善。”常海中说。

Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International, said his team estimates that the size of the announced fiscal stimulus package will be at least 4 trillion yuan ($566 billion), surpassing market expectations.

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，他的团队估计，已宣布的财政刺激计划规模将至少达到4万亿元人民币（约5660亿美元），超出市场预期。

"It will directly drive GDP growth in the fourth quarter to rise above 5 percent, thereby helping achieve the annual growth target of around 5 percent this year," he added.

王青补充：“这将直接推动第四季度GDP增长率升至5%以上，从而有助于实现今年5%左右的年度增长目标。”

Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura, said he believes that much of the incoming fiscal stimulus will likely be used to fill the fiscal gap faced by local governments.

野村证券中国首席经济学家陆挺认为，即将出台的财政刺激政策很可能会被用于填补地方政府面临的财政缺口。

"In addition to the 200 billion yuan for strategic projects announced by the National Development and Reform Commission, we expect the country to increase fiscal transfers to local governments and give them a large quota for borrowing," he said.

陆挺表示：“除了国家发展改革委宣布的2000亿元中央投资计划外，我们预计国家还将增加对地方政府的财政转移支付，并给予地方政府大量债券额度。”

Lu added that policymakers might consider an increase in spending on social security to help those with lower incomes and to encourage childbirth, and they will likely provide funding to those presold residential projects that have been delayed.

陆挺补充，决策者可能会考虑增加社会保障支出，以帮助低收入群体，并鼓励生育，且很可能会为那些被推迟的预售住宅项目提供资金。

sequential

adj. 按次序的，相继的

countercyclical

adj. 逆周期的

unleash

v. 释放

consumer price index

居民消费价格指数

producer price index

工业生产者出厂价格指数