Understanding Cognitive Bias

Every day, you make thousands of decisions. Some are big, like hiring a new employee or investing in a particular marketing strategy. Others are relatively minor, like how much paper to order or where to go for lunch. For many of us, these decisions are based on a combination of intuition, available information, and other people’s perspectives. But how do you know your decisions are truly optimal?
每天，你要做成千上万的决定。有些决定很大，比如雇用一名新员工或投资某个营销策略。其他则相对较小，比如订购多少纸张或去哪里吃午餐。对我们许多人来说，这些决定是基于直觉、可用信息和他人的观点。然而，你如何知道你的决定是否真的最优呢？

In fact, much of our decision-making is negatively impacted by what we call “biases.” Biases are unconscious tendencies to lean one way or another, mentally speaking. Toward or away from a person. Toward or away from types of information. These tendencies lead us to make poor decisions. And there’s one type of bias, called “overconfidence bias,” that prevents us from even noticing what is happening!
实际上，我们的许多决策都受到我们称之为“偏见”的负面影响。偏见是无意识地在心理上倾向于某个方向。偏向或远离某个人。偏向或远离某种信息。这些倾向导致我们做出糟糕的决策。有一种偏见叫做“过度自信偏见”，它甚至让我们无法注意到正在发生的事情！

Today we’ll go through some common cognitive biases, and in our next lesson we’ll talk about how to counteract them. Let’s start with one of the most common and damaging biases: “confirmation bias.” This type of bias leads us to focus on information that supports what we already think. At the same time, we ignore evidence that might show that our beliefs are wrong.
今天我们将讨论一些常见的认知偏见，在下一节课中我们将讨论如何对抗它们。让我们从最常见和最具破坏性的偏见之一——“确认偏见”开始。这种偏见导致我们关注支持我们已有想法的信息。同时，我们忽略可能表明我们信念错误的证据。

Consider a salesperson who is convinced that a particular sales strategy is the best one. Every time that strategy works for her, or other people, she’ll see it as proof that she’s right. But the times it doesn’t work, well those instances are ignored. You’ve probably been frustrated by people who are stuck in their beliefs like this, as a result of confirmation bias.
想象一个确信某个销售策略是最好的销售人员。每次这个策略对她或其他人有效时，她都会认为这是她正确的证明。但当它不起作用时，那些情况就会被忽略。你可能也曾被这样坚持自己信念的人所困扰，这就是确认偏见的结果。

Another bias that relates to getting stuck is the sunk-cost fallacy. Basically, once we’ve invested a lot of time, money, or energy into something, we’re very reluctant to back out or change course. Perhaps you’ve got an employee who really can’t do the job. But you’ve invested a lot in hiring and training them, so this bias makes you resist the right decision. Even when keeping the person on will cost you more in the long-run!
另一个与固执相关的偏见是沉没成本谬误。基本上，一旦我们在某事上投入了大量时间、金钱或精力，我们就很不愿意退出或改变方向。也许你有一个根本不能胜任工作的员工。但你在雇用和培训他们上投入了很多，所以这种偏见使你抗拒正确的决定。即使继续留用这个人从长远来看会花费更多！

Also on the topic of hiring and employees, we have what we call the “halo effect” and the “horns effect.” These biases happen when one particular trait or feature of a person colors our overall opinion. There’s a ton of research showing that attractive or tall people are widely considered more capable or skilled. Conversely, people who are overweight or have bad posture are considered less capable. And in both cases, our minds will overlook or misinterpret information that shows the opposite.
在雇用和员工的话题上，我们还有所谓的“光环效应”和“恶魔效应”。这些偏见发生在一个人的某一特质或特点影响我们整体看法的时候。有大量研究表明，长得好看或高个子的人普遍被认为更有能力或技能。相反，超重或姿势不好的人被认为能力较差。在这两种情况下，我们的大脑都会忽略或误解显示相反信息的信息。

Intuition may serve you well with some decisions. But your gut feeling will often lead you astray. This is why we look for data to help us make decisions. Even then, biases get in the way. Take, for example, a bias called “sample size neglect.”
直觉可能在某些决策中对你有利。但你的直觉常常会误导你。这就是为什么我们寻找数据来帮助我们做决定。即便如此，偏见仍然会干扰。以“样本量忽视”偏见为例。

Imagine you run a survey of your clients. 70% tell you your service is too slow. So you and your team begin discussing strategies for speeding up your service. But what if I told you that only 12% of your clients responded to the survey? Can you really say that slow service is a widespread concern? 12% just isn’t enough of a sample for you to draw a conclusion.
想象一下，你对客户进行了一项调查。70%的人告诉你你的服务太慢了。所以你和你的团队开始讨论加快服务的策略。但如果我告诉你只有12%的客户回应了调查呢？你能真的说慢服务是一个普遍的问题吗？12%的样本不足以让你得出结论。

Another bias that leads us astray is availability bias. Ever notice that you become more afraid of flying after hearing about a plane crash? In fact, statistically speaking, flying is safer than driving. But because information about the dangers is available, we overestimate the probability. We’re not working with all the relevant information. Rather, we’re working with what is recent and available.
另一个误导我们的偏见是可得性偏见。你是否注意到听说飞机失事后你会更害怕飞行？事实上，从统计学上讲，飞行比驾驶更安全。但因为关于危险的信息是可得的，我们高估了其可能性。我们没有处理所有相关信息，而是处理近期和可得的信息。

There’s one more bias I want to mention today, which research shows affects even the most experienced business leaders. It’s called the “planning fallacy.” This describes our tendency to underestimate how much time things will take. And it affects everything from planning our commuting time to planning major projects. It’s the reason we end up late or run out of time.
今天我想提到的另一个偏见是“计划谬误”，研究表明它影响了甚至最有经验的商业领导者。这描述了我们低估事情所需时间的倾向。它影响了从规划通勤时间到规划重大项目的一切。这就是我们迟到或时间不够用的原因。

One cause of the planning fallacy is focusing on the best-case scenario. We say it will take only 15 minutes to drive to the office because that’s what it might take if everything goes smoothly. But there’s always something to hold us up. We also make decisions without the right data, without the right amount of data, or without any data at all!
计划谬误的一个原因是专注于最好的情况。我们说开车到办公室只需15分钟，因为如果一切顺利，这可能就是所需时间。但总有一些事情会拖延我们。我们也在没有正确数据、没有足够数据或根本没有数据的情况下做出决策！

We’ve covered just a few of the common biases that impact decision-making. As we’ve seen, there’s a lot that can go wrong! Fortunately, there are ways to counteract these biases. Basic awareness that they are working in the background of our minds is a start.
我们已经讨论了一些影响决策的常见偏见。正如我们所见，可能出错的地方很多！幸运的是，有一些方法可以对抗这些偏见。意识到它们在我们大脑的背景中发挥作用是一个开始。