全球去美元化加速 专访国泰君安国际首席经济学家周浩

CAN RMB RECYCLE INTERNATIONALLY？

国际“去美元化”加速 人民币将如何走向国际化？

专访人物介绍：

Zhou Hao, Chief Economist, Guotai Junan International

周浩 国泰君安国际首席经济学家

Tim: Zhou Hao welcome to the program.

Tim：周浩，欢迎你的到来。

Zhou Hao:Hi morning Tim.

周浩：早上好。

Tim:How is Chinese monetary policy feeding the recovery?We have had a recent cut to the bank's reserve requirements, to the triple R, but could we also see a broader cut in interest rates?

Tim：中国的货币政策如何促进经济复苏？随着央行最近降低银行存款准备金率，存款利率是否会下调呢？

Zhou Hao:

周浩：

If you look at the mortgage rates in China for now, it's relatively elevated or a bit too high in my opinion.

如果你看一下中国现在的抵押贷款利率，在我看来，它相对较高 。

So I think you know, the PBOC or the Chinese central bank needs to lower the overall funding cost for the economy, particularly for the property buyers.

所以我认为，央行需要降低整体的融资成本，特别是对购房者来说。

So I think people need to enjoy relatively favorable interest rates, mortgage interest rates for now in China going forward.

我认为人们需要享受相对低的利率，特别是房产抵押贷款利率。

That will also help the consumption to be booming up, to be picking up in the next few years or in the foreseeable future as well.

这也将有助于消费在未来数年持续回升。

Tim: The latest profits from China's big banks, the big five last week, they did look pretty healthy.Have we seen any ripple effects from the banking crisis being sweeping through the US and through Europe in the last couple of weeks?

Tim：中国的五大行上周公布的最新财报看起来相当健康，在过去几周里显现的席卷美国和欧洲的银行业危机是否会对中国银行业产生连锁效应？

Zhou Hao:

周浩：

Regarding the international positions, I think for the Chinese bank they are relatively small in the global markets.

从国际业务占比来看，中国的银行在全球市场上规模相对较小。

And in the meantime you know, they are not relying on the dollar funding stuff, they are not relying on the overall dollar interest rate hike process.

同时它们不太依赖美元资产，美元加息对它们影响不大。

So from this kind of perspective I think the Chinese banks are still running more or less on the economy, on the Chinese economy.

所以从这种角度来看，中国银行的表现更依赖于中国经济运行水平。

So basically the profits numbers looks quite decent for the Chinese banks, and there is no significant spill over effect or contagions from offshore crisis to onshore banking sector.

因此，基本上中国银行的利润看起来相当不错，离岸市场的危机没有明显的溢出效应，也没有蔓延影响到在岸银行业。

Tim:With the rising inflation around the world interest rates going up, and then this banking crisis on top of that, it has highlighted in a wayhow tied the global money markets are to the US dollar.Is there a desire among some economies to break away from that?

Tim：随着世界多地的通货膨胀率上升、利率上升，再加上这轮银行危机，这在某种程度上表现出全球货币市场与美元紧密联结在一起。在一些经济体中，是否有摆脱这种束缚的愿望？

Zhou Hao: 

周浩：

I have been doing research on the global monetary payment or global financial system for a long time, and I found that in a core is the dollar dominance.So basically everything is about the dollar dominance.

我对全球货币支付、全球金融体系做了很长时间的研究，我发现一个核心问题就是美元的主导地位。基本上所有的系统都是美元主导的

So if you want to really get some independence in the global financial system, you have to think about getting rid of the US dollar dominance as well.

因此，如果你想在全球金融体系中获得一定独立性，你必须考虑摆脱美元的主导地位。

China has been working for a long time to try to, internationalize as they call it, the Renminbi, and that's made some progress.But there's still a long way to go on that.

中国已经努力了很长时间，不断推进人民币国际化，也取得了一定进展。但还有很长的路要走。

If China pays Renminbi to Brazil for example, and China bought a lot of commodities from Brazil, and if Brazil, as for now they accept Renminbi as a payment currency.And in this case, Brazil can also invest us from their country in Brazil, they can also invest their Renminbi back.

如果中国从巴西购买大量商品，而向巴西用人民币支付。就目前而言，如果巴西接受人民币作为支付货币，巴西也可以向中国投资，通过人民币支付将它们持有的人民币进行投资。

So basically if we can create a recycling system for the Renminbi, and it will become both economically important and financially important currency for the counterparty countries.So that will bring the importance of Renminbi up to a different certain level.So I think of course it looks like a long way to go, but the idea is already there.

因此基本上，如果我们能够为人民币创造一个循环系统，它能成为交易伙伴、经济和金融上具有重要地位的货币。这将使人民币的重要性上升到一个不同的水平。因此我认为，虽然这看起来是一个很长的路要走，但这个路径已经在那里了。

Tim:Do China's concerns about capital flight and the movement of capital offshore?

Do they sometimes hamper the internationalization of the Renminbi? Because the two concepts would seem to be at odds.

Tim：中国对资本外流和资本离岸流动的关注是否会阻碍人民币的国际化？因为这两个概念似乎是相背离的。

Zhou Hao: 

周浩：

That's also in one of the big concerns for the Renminbi internationalization in the past, because if China relatively keeps strict balance payments or capital account control, that will somehow reduce the two way flows between onshore and offshore market.

这也是过去人民币国际化的一大担忧。如果中国对国际收支或资本控制相对严格，这将在某种程度上减少人民币在在岸和离岸市场的双向流动。

But if we can create an offshore Renminbi cycle first, and in the meantime this money is already in offshore market, so there's no capital flight issue.

但是，如果我们能够先建立一个离岸人民币循环，同时这些钱已经在离岸市场上了，那么就不存在资本外流的问题。

And in the meantime, because this money is generated by trade, this will also help to increase or improve the two way flows, because people or policymakers or regulators will be more confident to see this money flow in and flow out.That will create a good demand for the Chinese currency or Renminbi assets as well.

同时，由于这些钱是由贸易产生的，这也将有助于增加双向流动。因为政策制定者或监管者将对于这些钱的流入和流出更有信心，这也将促进市场对人民币或人民币资产的需求。