野生问题第10章 像比尔一样（增加选项、实践出真知、沉没成本

野生问题第10章 Be Like Bill

疯狂的问题之所以如此令人不快，原因之一是我们看不到未来。 One reason wild problems are so unpleasant is that the future is shrouded from us. 因为我们渴望控制和确定性，我们自然的冲动是试图用更多的信息和更好的策略来解决棘手的问题，以照亮黑暗。 Because we crave control and certainty, our natural impulse is to try to illuminate the darkness with more information and better strategies for coping with wild problems. 这是一个傻瓜的游戏，一种幻觉。 This is a fool’s game, an illusion. 你最好试着适应黑暗。 You’re better off trying to get used to the darkness. 这听起来不错，但说实话:我们大多数人都不是蝙蝠。 That sounds good, but let’s be honest: Most of us aren’t bats. 我们不喜欢黑暗。 We don’t like darkness. 告诉人类要习惯黑暗是违背我们的本性的。 Telling a human being to get used to the darkness goes against our nature. 确定性使我们的心歌唱; Certainty makes our hearts sing; 不确定性使我们焦虑。 uncertainty makes us anxious. 理性地告诉自己未来是不可知的，并没有什么帮助。 Telling yourself rationally that the future is unknowable isn’t that helpful. 即使你的大脑告诉你害怕未来是非理性的，你胃里的那个坑也不会消失。 That pit in your stomach doesn’t go away even if your mind says it’s irrational to fear the future. 你的大脑尤其不善于控制你的胃告诉你的东西。 Your mind is particularly poor at controlling what your stomach is telling you. 在本章和下一章中，我将提出两种元策略，用于处理未来的不确定性和野生问题的挑战。 In this chapter and the next one, I present two metastrategies for dealing with the uncertainty of the future and the challenge of wild problems. 第一个是来自新英格兰爱国者队主教练比尔·贝利奇克(Bill Belichick)。 The first comes from an unlikely source, Bill Belichick, the head coach of the New England Patriots. 贝利奇克作为主教练赢得了6次超级碗戒指。 Belichick has earned six Super Bowl rings as a head coach. 他被广泛认为是天才，策划者，美国橄榄球联盟的爱因斯坦。 He’s widely considered a genius, a mastermind, the Einstein of the NFL. 具有讽刺意味的是，像比尔一样意味着要找到一种方法来应对你所知道的太少。 Ironically, being like Bill means finding a way to cope with how little you know. 在每年的NFL选秀大会上，各支球队按照前一个赛季的成绩反过来挑选大学生球员。 Every year at the NFL Draft, teams pick college players in reverse order to how the teams finished in the previous season. 贝利奇克和他的工作人员，像每一支NFL球队一样，花了数百个小时准备。 Belichick and his staff, like with every NFL team, spend hundreds of hours preparing. 球队拥有数百名球员的大量数据。 Teams have extensive data on hundreds of players. 他们对数十名最有希望的求职者进行个人面试。 They conduct personal interviews with dozens of their top prospects. 他们观看了数百甚至数千小时的球员大学表演的电影。 They watch hundreds if not thousands of hours of film that show the players’ college performances. 爱国者队，像所有的NFL球队一样，使用这种定性和定量的混合信息来对前景进行评级，排名，并相应地做出他们的选秀权。 The Patriots, like all NFL teams, use this mix of qualitative and quantitative information to grade prospects, rank them, and make their draft picks accordingly. 这个系统非常复杂，对球队的未来非常重要，以至于爱国者队作战室的任何视频片段都会模糊背景中的白板，因此竞争对手对爱国者队用来做出选择的系统一无所知。 This system is so complicated and important to the future of the team that any video footage of the Patriots’ war rooms blurs out the whiteboards in the background so competitors get no clue about the system the Patriots use to make their choices. 但有趣的是。 But here’s the funny thing. 爱国者队并不相信他们的系统是可靠的预测器。 The Patriots don’t really believe in their system as a reliable predictor. 他们知道，他们对当前大学生球员未来生存能力的了解是松散、模糊和不确定的。 They know that their knowledge about the future viability of current college players is loose, vague, and indeterminate. 我们知道这一点，因为贝利奇克以热衷于用前一轮的选秀权换取后几轮的多个选秀权而闻名。 We know that because Belichick is famous for his eagerness to trade a draft pick from an earlier round for multiple draft picks in later rounds. 他似乎重数量轻质量。 He seems to value quantity over quality. 他很少放弃多个选秀权来选择一个特定的球员——他知道，无论有多少迹象表明一个球员在NFL会取得成功，任何一个人都有巨大的不确定性。 He rarely gives up multiple picks to move up in the draft to choose a particular player—he knows that no matter how many signs point to a player being successful in the NFL, an enormous amount of uncertainty surrounds any one individual. 所以贝利奇克所做的就是少担心用任何一个选秀权得到正确的球员。 So what Belichick does is worry less about getting the exact right player with any one pick. 相反，他试图选择大量的球员。 Instead, he tries to choose lots of players. 这似乎是不可能的——每支球队都有相同数量的选秀权。 That would seem impossible—each team gets the same number of draft picks. 但爱国者队通常比其他球队拥有更多的选秀权，因为比尔愿意在随后的一轮中用一个高顺位选秀权交换多个选秀权。 But the Patriots often have more picks than other teams because of Bill’s willingness to trade a high draft pick for more than one pick in a later round. 一旦他选择的球员到达训练营，贝利奇克就会得到更多的信息，尤其是那些他无法从电影或与大学教练交谈中收集到的信息，或者从NFL球探组合中收集到的数据，这是一系列艰苦的速度、敏捷性、力量和智力测试。 Once the players he chooses arrive at training camp, Belichick gets a lot more information, and in particular, information that he can’t glean from film or talking to college coaches or data gathered at the NFL Scouting Combine, the arduous set of speed, agility, strength, and intelligence tests.

季前赛不仅让贝利奇克发现球员是否技术娴熟，还让他知道这些技术如何适应爱国者的体系。 The preseason lets Belichick find out not just whether a player is skilled but how those skills will fit into the Patriots’ system. 他会发现球员的个性(从远处是不可能观察到的)将如何与球队其他球员的个性以及爱国者队工作人员的期望相匹配。 He finds out how the player’s personality (which is impossible to observe from a distance) will mesh with those of other players on the team and the expectations of the Patriots’ staff. 人们可能会认为，好玩家就是好玩家，坏玩家就是坏玩家。 One might be tempted to assume that a good player is a good player and a bad one is a bad one. 但爱国者队经常从其他球队无法产生的球员那里获得强大的生产能力。 But the Patriots often get strong production from a player that other teams couldn’t generate. 有些球员在其他地方表现不错，但在爱国者队的体系中表现不佳。 And some players perform well elsewhere but play poorly in the Patriots’ system. 贝利奇克知道，他选择的球员中只有一小部分能在他的体系中茁壮成长。 Belichick knows that only a fraction of the players he chooses will thrive in his system. 但他也知道提前知道哪些球员会表现良好有多难。 But he also knows how hard it is to know in advance which players will turn out well. 因此，他没有把所有的精力都集中在选秀日做出更好的决定上，而是增加了分母，即选秀权的总数。 So rather than focusing all of his energy on making better decisions on Draft Day, he increases the denominator, the total number of picks. 贝利奇克承认自己的无知。 Belichick embraces his ignorance. 他知道自己没有罗马旅游指南。 He understands he doesn’t have a guidebook to Rome. 他边做边学。 He learns as he goes along. 不适应的球员被裁掉了。 The players who don’t fit in are cut. 贝利奇克似乎并不关心他们是高顺位还是低顺位。 Belichick doesn’t seem to care about whether they were high draft picks or low ones. 他还在选秀后签下了很多球员——选秀球员的合同特别便宜。 He also signs a lot of players after the draft—the contracts for undrafted players are particularly inexpensive. 在过去的18年里，一个选秀自由球员，有时不止一个，进入球队。 And for the last eighteen years, an undrafted free agent, and sometimes more than one, makes the team. 我们能从比尔·贝利奇克身上学到什么? What can we learn from Bill Belichick? 除了一流的长杆球手不被重视的价值，美国海军学院的长曲棍球历史，以及能打多个位置的球员不被重视的价值(比尔·贝利奇克痴迷于这些事情，在一小群同样感兴趣的爱好者中，他是世界权威)，我们可以从比尔身上学到至少四个超越体育的教训。 Other than the unappreciated value of a first-rate long snapper, the history of lacrosse at the United States Naval Academy, and the unappreciated value of players who can play multiple positions (all things that Bill Belichick is obsessed with and a world authority on, among a very small group of similarly interested devotees), we can learn at least four lessons from Bill that extend beyond sports. 1. 1. 可选性很强大。 Optionality is powerful. 可选择性是指你有做某事的自由，但没有义务。 Optionality is when you have the freedom to do something but not the obligation. 想想Zappos。 Think of Zappos. Zappos是一家提供免运费和免退货服务的鞋类网站。 Zappos is the shoe website with free shipping and free returns. 我们都知道不用支付运费或退货的乐趣。 We all understand the pleasantness of not having to pay for shipping or returns. 它并不是完全免费的，这意味着价格可能会比正常情况下高一些。 It’s not exactly free—it means the prices are probably going to be a little bit higher than they might otherwise be. 作为回报(对不起!)，你可以选择，一旦你近距离看到这双鞋，并在家里穿着它们，你就可以改变主意。 In return (sorry!), you get optionality, the ability to change your mind once you’ve seen the shoes up close and worn them around the house. 他们可能看起来很舒服。 They may look comfortable. 他们可能有4.97的评分(满分5分)和成千上万的积极评价。 They might have a 4.97 out of 5 rating with thousands of positive reviews. 但在你穿上它们之前，你不知道它们是否适合你。 But until you’ve put them on, you can’t know whether they’ll be comfortable for you. 能够免费退货(而且麻烦程度相对较低)给了你更多的选择。 Being able to return them without charge (and at a relatively low level of hassle) gives you optionality. 你买了鞋子，却没有义务保留它们。 You buy the shoes without obligation to keep them. 可选性并不仅仅意味着因为你不需要支付运费而降低错误的成本。 Optionality doesn’t just mean a lower cost from a mistake because you don’t have to pay for shipping. 它会改变你购物的整个过程。 It should change your whole process of shopping. 买更多的鞋子(假设你的信用卡没有刷爆)。 Buy more shoes (assuming you have a credit card that isn’t maxed out). 不要纠结于他们是否是正确的选择。 Don’t agonize over whether they’re the right choice. 不要浪费时间试图获取更多信息，比如喜欢鞋子的评论者是否像你一样(脚窄的人喜欢这些鞋子吗?)或者Zappos的评论是否可靠。 Don’t waste time trying to get more information about whether the reviewers who liked the shoes are like you (do people with narrow feet like these shoes?) or whether the reviews at Zappos are reliable. 多购物，少担心。 Shop more, worry less. 我猜Belichick喜欢Zappos是因为免退货和免运费符合他的应征理念。 I’m guessing Belichick likes Zappos because free returns and free shipping fit his draft philosophy. 因为他知道他可以在没有做出长期承诺的情况下裁掉一个不适合的球员，所以他会订购更多的球员，而不是试图提前确定谁是最好的球员。 Because he knows he can cut a player who doesn’t fit without making a long-term commitment, he orders more players rather than trying to find out in advance with any certainty who the best ones are. 他在选秀期间睡得更好，因为他知道他有一些类似于大数定律的东西对他有利——有足够多的新秀，他们中的一些人会在季前赛的测试中发挥作用。 He sleeps better around the draft because he knows he has something like the law of large numbers working in his favor—with a big enough class of rookies, some of them will work out when tested in the preseason. 不可避免地，贝利奇克(以及其他面临选秀不确定性的NFL智囊团)忽视了挑选那些在未来几年才发现自己错过了一位超级巨星的球员。 Inevitably, Belichick (and every other NFL brain trust that faces the uncertainty of the draft) neglects to pick players who are available only to discover in the coming years that he missed out on a superstar. 我怀疑他在某种程度上试图弄清楚他可能能够看到什么，从而在选秀时确定这些球员。 I suspect he tries at some level to figure out what he might have been able to see that would have identified those players at draft time. 但我也怀疑他知道，让这些球员变得伟大的很多东西根本无法提前看到。 But I also suspect he knows that much of what makes those players great simply can’t be seen in advance. 我相信他每年都在努力让他的选秀分析变得更好。 I’m sure he tries to make his draft analysis better every year. 但这一过程存在根本性的不确定性。 But there is a fundamental uncertainty around the process. 他没有试图完善他的分析草案，而是寻找应对不可避免的不确定性的策略。 Rather than trying to perfect his draft analysis, he looks for strategies to cope with the inevitable uncertainty. 他花了更多的时间来适应黑暗，更少的时间去寻找扩大光明。 He spends more time getting used to the darkness and less time looking to expand the light.

可选性的本质是认识到你无法提前知道什么会起作用。 The essence of optionality is appreciating that you can’t know in advance what will work. 这和风险投资的理念是一样的。 It’s the same idea behind venture capital. 即使是最好的风险投资家，十有八九也会三振出局。 Even the best venture capitalists strike out seven times out of ten. 十次中有一次，他们可能会击中所谓的独角兽公司，即估值达到10亿美元或以上的公司。 One time out of ten they might hit what’s called a unicorn—a company that turns out to have a valuation of a billion dollars or more. 为什么他们不能提前找出独角兽公司，然后直接投资呢? Why can’t they figure out the unicorns in advance and just invest in those? 他们不能。 They can’t. 投资是一个棘手的问题。 Investing is a wild problem. 风险投资家依赖于大数定律。 Venture capitalists rely on the law of large numbers. 他们让市场来决定他们的十项投资中哪一项是本垒打。 They let the market decide which of their ten investments is a home run. 他们不能做得更好了。 They can’t do any better than that. 用这个想法来生活。 Use this idea for living. 多一些经验，少一些经验。 Try to have more experiences than fewer. 尝试的东西。 Try stuff. 停止做那些不适合你的事情。 Stop doing the stuff that isn’t for you. 拥抱能让你的心灵歌唱的机会。 Embrace the opportunities that make your heart sing. 花更少的时间去提前弄清楚这些可能是什么，花更多的时间去冒险，只要你能以足够低的成本选择退出。 Spend less time trying to figure out in advance what those might be and more time taking chances as long as you can opt out at a low enough cost. 探索比计划好的行程要好得多。 Exploring can turn out much better than a planned itinerary. 对我们很多人来说，期权的优势是一把双刃剑。 The advantages of optionality are a double-edged sword for many of us. 我们害怕做决定，所以我们想要更多的信息。 We fear making a decision so we want more information. 所以我们和一个人约会很长一段时间，告诉自己我们这样做只是为了确保这个人是对的。【应该是和多人约会，而不是和一人约长时间】 So we date someone for an extended period of time telling ourselves we are doing so just to make sure this is the right person. 但也有一种观点认为，你应该了解更多你未曾见过的人的信息。 But there is also an argument for getting more information about someone you have not met. 和不同的人约会也能让你了解更多关于你自己的信息，以及你如何与潜在的伴侣互动，并增加你发现喜欢你的人的机会。 Dating lots of different people also gives you more information about yourself and how you interact with a potential partner and raises your chances of identifying someone you like who likes you. 处理这种权衡没有简单的方法，但也许认识到这样一个现实是有帮助的，即很多时候，做出决定的延迟并不仅仅是因为我们没有信息。 There is no easy way to deal with this trade-off but perhaps it is helpful to be aware of the reality that many times the delay in making a decision is not simply because we don’t have information. 我们拖延是因为我们不喜欢做决定。 We delay because we don’t like making decisions. 2. 2. 不要认为对他们有效的方法也适用于你。 Don’t assume that what works for them works for you. 【实事求是，实践出真知】如果可以的话，把鞋子穿上。 When you can, put the shoes on. 试驾这辆车。 Test-drive the car. 询问人们幸福程度的调查可能并不适用于你、你的品味、你的激情，最重要的是，随着时间的推移，你会变成什么样。 Surveys asking people about their level of happiness may not apply to you, your tastes, your passions, and most important, who you become over time. 穿上鞋子比阅读鞋子有多舒服更能告诉你。 Putting the shoes on tells you a lot more than reading about how comfortable the shoes are. 在你的训练场而不是别人的训练场看到球员是特别有价值的。 Seeing the player at your practice rather than someone else’s is particularly valuable. 试驾这辆车。 Test-drive the car. 并不是所有疯狂的问题都是吸血鬼的问题，如果你临阵退缩就没有希望了。 Not every wild problem is really a vampire problem, with no hope of return if you get cold feet. 不要被危险吓倒。 Don’t be intimidated by what’s at stake. 3. 3. 沉没成本已经沉没。 Sunk costs are sunk. 贝利奇克似乎并不羞于承认他做的决定没有奏效。 Belichick doesn’t seem to be embarrassed to admit that a decision he made didn’t work out. 他承认选秀并不是什么科学，更像是掷骰子。 He’s OK with admitting that the draft isn’t much of a science and more of a roll of the dice. 他试了试这个选手。 He tries out the player. 如果鞋子不合脚，他也不会觉得必须穿，因为人们可能会对他的判断失去尊重。 If the shoe doesn’t fit, he doesn’t feel compelled to wear it because people might lose respect for his judgment. 相反的情况是，他从一个球员(不仅仅是选秀权)转会，因为他明白有些决定不可避免地会与我们的预期不同。 The opposite is the case—he moves on from a player (and not just with draft picks) because he understands that some decisions inevitably turn out differently from what we expected. 我们只是人。 We’re only human. 通常在这种情况下，我们会说，我接受了这份工作，但这是一个错误。 Often in such situations, we’ll say, I took the job, but it was a mistake. 我订婚了，但那是个错误。 I got engaged, but it was a mistake. 我上了法学院，但那是个错误。 I went to law school, but it was a mistake. 但这些都不是错误。 But none of those things are mistakes. 当你知道你不喜欢凤尾鱼，但你还是在披萨上点了它们，这就是错误。【错误是明知而故犯。若不明知，何来错误？】 A mistake is when you know you don’t like anchovies but you keep ordering them on your pizza. 错误是相信一个你知道是一个没有荣誉的人。 A mistake is trusting someone you know is a person without honor.

与我们所希望的不同的人生选择并不是错误。 Life choices that turn out differently from what we hoped aren’t mistakes. 他们只是选择了不同于我们希望的结果。【正好用在儿子身上】 They’re just choices that turned out differently than we hoped. 我们不应该称之为错误。 We shouldn’t call those mistakes. 你不应该因为他们而自责。 You shouldn’t beat yourself up over them. 原谅自己。 Forgive yourself. 结果不好的疯狂问题不是错误。 Wild problems that don’t turn out well aren’t mistakes. 它们更像是冒险。 They’re more like adventures. 冒险经历有曲折，有起伏。 Adventures have twists and turns and ups and downs. 贝利奇克告诉我们，如果你能去冒险，而且不需要付出很大的代价，那就去吧。 Belichick teaches us that if you can go on an adventure that you can end without great cost, go. 如果结果很糟糕，那就缩短它。 If it turns out badly, cut it short. 如果结果不错，那就享受这段旅程吧。 If it turns out well, enjoy the ride. 这打败了预先精确地找出哪些冒险是最好的。 This beats trying to figure out in advance with any precision which adventures are the best ones. 4. 4. 毅力和坚持被高估了。 Grit and persistence are overrated. 是的，仅仅因为某件事有困难或有点不愉快就立即放弃不是一个好主意。 Yes, it’s a bad idea to quit immediately just because something is difficult or a little unpleasant. 是的，有些口味是后天养成的，但有些东西永远不会令人愉快。 Yes, some tastes are acquired tastes, but some things never become delightful. 如果你讨厌法学院，讨厌当律师，那就尝试一种不同的法律。 If you hated law school and hate being a lawyer, try a different kind of law. 如果这还不起作用，那么换工作也没什么好羞愧的。 If that doesn’t help, there’s no shame in changing careers. 如果你讨厌法律而抛弃了它，不要说你犯了一个错误。 If you hate law and leave it behind, don’t say you made a mistake. 你的信息这么不完整，怎么可能是个错误呢? How can it be a mistake when your information was so incomplete? 当生活和你想象的不一样，或者你变成了和你想象中的不一样的人，改变吧。 When life turns out to be different than you thought it would be, or you turn out differently than you thought you’d like to be, change. 如果你不喜欢当吸血鬼，那就脱下斗篷，享受阳光吧。 If you don’t like being a vampire, take off the cape and enjoy the sunshine. 止损，继续前进。 Cut your losses and move on. 生命太短暂，不要盲目地坚持那些你发现不适合自己的事情。 Life’s too short to stick mindlessly with things you discover aren’t for you. 生活。 Live. 改变。 Change. 像比尔一样。 Be like Bill. 尽可能地利用可选性。 Take advantage of optionality when you can. 有些选择是显而易见的——结婚前先约会。 Some optionality is obvious—date before you marry. 进公司前先实习。 Be an intern before you join a company. 在你对一名员工做出长期承诺之前，先雇佣一名实习生。 Hire an intern before you make a long-term commitment to an employee. 在你搬到一个地方之前先参观一下。 Visit a place before you move there. 不要看完每一本书。 Don’t finish every book you start. 生活中的大多数决定并不是字面上的吸血鬼问题，一旦你做出了选择，就没有回头路，没有回头路。 Most decisions in life aren’t literally vampire problems where once you’ve made a choice, there’s no going back, no return. 如果你搬到以色列并讨厌它，你可以搬到其他地方。 If you move to Israel and hate it, you can move somewhere else. 如果你的婚姻不好，你可以离婚，尽管我认为婚姻是一个可能低估勇气和毅力的例子【即实际上婚姻很需要勇气和毅力】——努力让它变得更好，直到你发现你不能。 If you marry badly, you can divorce, although I think marriage is one example of where grit and persistence might be underrated—work at making it better until you find that you can’t. 如果你没有结婚，你错过了配偶带来的人际关系，还有其他方法来寻找联系和友谊。 If you don’t marry and you miss the human connection that a spouse brings, there are other ways to find connection and friendship. 如果你去了法学院，发现自己讨厌做律师，你并不孤单。 If you go to law school and you find you hate being a lawyer, you’re not alone. 如果你因为别人告诉你坚持和毅力是一种美德而坚持下去，那么你也不是一个人。 If you stick with it anyway because you were told that persistence and grit are a virtue, you’re also not alone. 但事实是，你可以自由地改变你的职业，即使你已经做了一段时间的律师。 But the fact is that you’re free to change your career, even when you’ve been a lawyer for a while. 很多疯狂的问题之所以让人如此痛苦，是因为后悔的幽灵。 A lot of what makes wild problems so painful is the specter of regret. 你决定不跟某人结婚，最后却后悔了。 You decide not to marry someone and you end up regretting it. 或者恰恰相反——你娶了一个人，结果并不如意。 Or the opposite—you marry someone and it doesn’t turn out well. 你上了法学院，却讨厌它。 You go to law school and you hate it. 这些决定可能会导致糟糕的结果，这往往会让人害怕做出任何决定。 The potential for these decisions to turn out badly tends to cause fear of making any decision at all. 我们对自己说，我们需要更多的时间来收集信息，忽略了更多的信息不会有帮助——这只是拖延的一种形式。 We say to ourselves that we need more time to gather information, ignoring that more information isn’t going to help—it’s just a form of procrastination. 拉比乔纳森·萨克斯说:“理解婚姻的唯一方法就是结婚。 Rabbi Jonathan Sacks said, “The only way to understand marriage is to get married. 要想知道某条职业道路是否适合你，唯一的方法就是长时间地去尝试。 The only way to understand whether a certain career path is right for you is to actually try it for an extended period. 那些在承诺的边缘徘徊，不愿在所有事实都清楚之前做出决定的人，最终会发现生活已与他们擦肩而过。 Those who hover on the edge of a commitment, reluctant to make a decision until all the facts are in, will eventually find that life has passed them by. 理解一种生活方式的唯一方法就是去冒险过这种生活。” The only way to understand a way of life is to take the risk of living it.” 所有的事实从来都不存在。 All the facts are never in. 避免让生命从你身边溜走的一个方法就是不要再担心犯“错误”。 One way to avoid letting life pass you by is to stop worrying about making a “mistake.” 当你不能做得更好时，这不是错误。 It’s not a mistake when you can’t do any better. 所以，少花点时间去寻找“正确”的决定，多花点时间去思考如何扩大你的选择范围，以及如果决定结果很糟糕，如何应对失望。 So spend less time on figuring out the “right” decision and more time on thinking abou