Study: Exxon Scientists Predicted Global Warming since 1970s

A new study says scientists at the oil company Exxon Mobile made accurate predictions about global warming starting in the 1970s. The study, in the journal Science, examined research by Exxon scientists. The oil company used more than 12 computer models that predicted increasing temperatures as well as, or better than, government and university scientists. The study said that Exxon’s predictions that the atmosphere would warm about 0.2 degrees Celsius every 10 years were correct.

一项新研究表明，埃克森美孚石油公司的科学家从 70 年代开始就对全球变暖做出了准确的预测。这项发表在《科学》杂志上的研究检查了埃克森美孚科学家的研究。该石油公司使用了超过 12 个计算机模型来预测温度升高，与政府和大学科学家的预测一样好，甚至更好。研究称，埃克森美孚关于大气每10年升温约0.2摄氏度的预测是正确的。

Naomi Oreskes is a history of science professor at Harvard University in Massachusetts. Oreskes was a co-writer of the study. She said Exxon paid for research that was “actually astonishing” in its precision and accuracy. Geoffrey Supran is the lead writer of the study and an environmental science professor at the University of Miami. He said this study is different from what earlier studies have found in documents from the oil industry. He said the data gives strong evidence that Exxon predicted that world temperatures would rise. But, he said, the company publicly attacked other scientific efforts that made similar predictions.

 Naomi Oreskes 是马萨诸塞州哈佛大学的科学史教授。Oreskes 是该研究的合著者。她说，埃克森美孚支付的研究费用在精确度和准确度上“实际上令人惊讶”。Geoffrey Supran 是该研究的主要作者，也是迈阿密大学的环境科学教授。他说这项研究不同于早期在石油行业文件中发现的研究。他说，这些数据提供了强有力的证据，表明埃克森美孚预测世界气温将会上升。但是，他说，该公司公开攻击了其他做出类似预测的科学努力。

The study quoted then-Exxon chief Lee Raymond. In 1999, Raymond said climate research was “based on completely unproven climate models,” or mostly guessing about the future. However, Exxon spokesperson Todd Spitler said some people are not correctly showing Exxon’s position on climate science. He said there was a debate within the company about climate science instead of a plan to give false information to the public. Exxon has faced several legal cases claiming that the company knew about the damage oil and gas would cause but still gave misleading information to the public.

该研究引用了当时的埃克森美孚首席执行官李雷蒙德的话。1999 年，雷蒙德表示气候研究“基于完全未经证实的气候模型”，或者主要是对未来的猜测。然而，埃克森美孚发言人托德斯皮特勒表示，有些人没有正确表达埃克森美孚在气候科学方面的立场。他说，公司内部有一场关于气候科学的辩论，而不是向公众提供虚假信息的计划。埃克森美孚面临多起法律案件，声称该公司知道石油和天然气可能造成的损害，但仍向公众提供误导性信息。

Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey compared Exxon’s public statements to those of the tobacco industry. For years, the tobacco industry denied the dangerous effects of tobacco use even when it knew about the dangers. Healy brought a legal case for the state of Massachusetts against Exxon in 2019 claiming that the company misled the public.

马萨诸塞州总检察长 Maura Healey 将埃克森美孚的公开声明与烟草业的公开声明进行了比较。多年来，烟草业在知道烟草使用的危险时仍否认使用烟草的危险影响。希利于 2019 年代表马萨诸塞州对埃克森美孚提起法律诉讼，声称该公司误导公众。

Oreskes and Supran, the writers of the study, said they had previously worked for or received money from organizations that support legal actions against Exxon. Donald Wuebbles is a retired professor of atmospheric science at the University of Illinois. He told The Associated Press that in the 1980s he worked with scientists who received money to support their research from Exxon. He said he was not surprised by the company’s findings. Wuebbles said: “It was clear that Exxon Mobile knew what was going on.” He added: “The problem is at the same time they were paying people to put out misinformation. That’s the big issue.”

该研究的作者 Oreskes 和 Supran 表示，他们之前曾为支持针对埃克森美孚采取法律行动的组织工作或从中获得资金。Donald Wuebbles 是伊利诺伊大学大气科学的退休教授。他告诉美联社，在 1980 年代，他曾与从埃克森美孚获得资金支持其研究的科学家合作。他说他对公司的调查结果并不感到惊讶。Wuebbles 说：“很明显，埃克森美孚知道发生了什么。”他补充说：“问题在于他们同时付钱给人们发布错误信息。这才是大问题。”

InfluenceMap is a non-profit group jointly based in the U.S. and Britain, which studies how companies are affecting the world’s climate. InfluenceMap said Exxon’s overall communication efforts oppose the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. It also said Exxon is currently having a negative effect on efforts to fight climate change. Faye Holder is the program manager for InfluenceMap. She said all her company’s research suggests that Exxon aims to continue its business and to “thwart” policies called for by supporters of climate change.“The messages of denial and delay may look different, but the intention is the same,” she said.

InfluenceMap 是一家总部设在美国和英国的非营利组织，研究公司如何影响世界气候。InfluenceMap表示，埃克森美孚的整体沟通努力反对2015年巴黎气候变化协议。它还表示，埃克森美孚目前正在对应对气候变化的努力产生负面影响。Faye Holder 是 InfluenceMap 的项目经理。她说，她公司的所有研究都表明，埃克森美孚的目标是继续开展业务，并“阻挠”气候变化支持者呼吁的政策。 “否认和拖延的信息可能看起来不同，但意图是一样的，”她说.