英语新闻｜专家预测明年春天疫情将恢复正常

英语新闻｜专家预测明年春天疫情将恢复正常

China has optimized its COVID-19 response measures at the right time, amid the reduced fatality rate of the Omicron variant and the increased preparedness of the nation's healthcare system, experts said over the weekend.

本周末，专家表示，在奥密克戎病毒死亡率降低，国家医疗系统的准备程度提高的情况下，我国适时优化调整了新冠肺炎防控举措。

They cautioned that the country will face "waves of COVID-19 infection" through winter, but added that the overall epidemic situation is controllable and a return to full normalcy can be expected by spring.

专家提醒，整个冬季，我国将面临“新冠肺炎感染潮”，但总体疫情是可控的，预计明年春天将恢复完全正常。

Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said that the rate of severe and critical cases plummeted from 16.47 percent in 2020 to 3.32 percent last year. By Dec 5, the rate further dropped to 0.18 percent.

中国疾病预防控制中心首席流行病专家吴尊友表示，中国新冠重症、危重症的比例从2020年的16.47%下降到去年的3.32%，再下降到今年12月的0.18%，重症与病死率都在逐渐下降。

"The past three years have been very difficult. We have waited for the virus to become less virulent and less of a threat to people's health. We have also earned plenty of time to expand our vaccination reach and build our capacity to cope with the disease," he said at a forum held on Saturday.

“过去三年非常艰难。我们一直在等待新冠病毒的致病性也逐渐减弱到同流感病毒一般，甚至低于流感病毒。中国防疫的3年里，让更多人完成了疫苗接种，形成足够的防护力。”12月17日吴尊友在论坛上指出。

On Dec 7, China released a set of 10 optimized COVID-19 rules, including allowing asymptomatic cases and patients with mild symptoms to isolate at home and restricting the need for mass testing.

12月7日，中国宣布防疫“新十条”，包括允许具备居家隔离条件的无症状感染者和轻型病例采取居家隔离，并限制大规模检测的开展。

Wu said these policy adjustments were rolled out when the number of deaths per week globally had hit the lowest level and stayed below 10,000 for consecutive weeks.

吴尊友解释说，新十条的宣布时间，正是全球过去3年每周报告死亡人数的最低点，也是连续几周每周报告病例死亡数低于一万的时间点。

"If these measures were announced earlier, say at the beginning of this year, the mainland would have seen 866,000 to 1.039 million more deaths," he said.

吴尊友说：“按照推算，若是将“新十条”提前公布，将会造成多数百万人死亡。哪怕是提前到今年年初公布，中国大陆就会多死亡86.6万—103.9万人。”

Zeng Guang, a former researcher at the China CDC, observed that the COVID-19 infection has changed with time. While its transmissibility has increased, its ability to cause death has declined.

中国疾病预防控制中心流行病学前首席科学家曾光观察到，新冠肺炎感染随着时间的推移而发生变化。虽然病毒的传播性增加了，但致死性下降了。

"The 10 new measures, which are also meant to facilitate opening-up, couldn't have come at a more opportune moment," he said during another online event on Saturday.

12月17日，曾光在一场线上论坛中谈到，新十条是为了促进开放，从公共卫生角度来看，这是一个较好的转折点。

The high transmissibility rate of the Omicron variant, the cold weather and the waning immunity from vaccination are all contributing to the rising number of infections in many regions, Zeng said.

曾光表示，奥密克戎变异株的高传播率、寒冷的天气以及疫苗免疫效力的下降都是许多地区感染人数上升的原因。

"Beijing and many local governments have launched targeted emergency measures to prevent overstretching of their local medical systems. The overall situation is under control and is set to improve," he added.

“北京的措施正在向全国普及，很多省也提出了相似的对策，预防医疗挤兑。我相信形势可控，形势会越来越好。”曾光补充说。

Chief epidemiologist Wu said that the mainland will likely be hit by three more waves of COVID-19 infection in the coming months. Large cities are already facing the first wave, which began in mid-December and will continue till mid-January.

首席流行病专家吴尊友表示，今冬疫情可以概括为“一峰三波”， 从12月中旬到1月中旬将是第一波疫情，第一波以城市为主。

Traveling by migrant workers during the Spring Festival holiday will fuel the second wave and the third wave will occur when these workers return to their workplaces between late February and mid-March.

第二波是1月下旬到2月中旬，春节前的人员流动造成第二波疫情上升。第三波是2月下旬到3月中旬，春节后返岗返工。

"Around 10 to 30 percent of Chinese people will get infected this winter, and the fatality rate will range from 0.09 to 0.16 percent," he said.

吴尊友表示，估计今冬疫情感染率在10%到30%。死亡率将在0.09%到0.16%之间。

To step up preparedness, Wu recommended getting a COVID-19 vaccine booster shot, maintaining hand hygiene and wearing masks. More efforts should be devoted to protecting vulnerable groups, he said.

吴尊友建议大家做好准备，打加强针、戴口罩、保持手卫生，每个人都要保护好自己，此外要重点保护好脆弱人群。

Zhang Boli, a top traditional Chinese medicine expert and an academic at the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said that the epidemic is expected to stabilize by spring, following a peak in January and February, and people will be able to resume their normal lives.

顶级中医专家、中国工程院院士张伯礼表示，预计疫情将在1月和2月达到高峰后，在春季稳定下来，人们将能够恢复正常生活。

Liang Wannian, a senior expert with the National Health Commission, said the number of severe cases and the strain on hospitals should be closely monitored to map the possibility of outbreaks.

国家卫生健康委专家梁万年表示，应密切监测重症病例数量和医院压力，以确定疫情爆发的可能性。

Liang said pressing tasks at present include raising vaccination rates among the elderly and those with chronic diseases, stocking up on medical equipment, strengthening hospital capacity and stepping up surveillance of viral mutations.

梁万年表示，目前的紧迫任务包括提高老年人和慢性病患者的疫苗接种率、储备医疗设备、提升医院反应能力，并加强病毒突变监测。

Preparedness

英 [prɪˈpeərɪdnəs]  美 [prɪˈperdnəs]

n. 做好准备

Epidemiologist

英 [ˌepɪˌdiːmiˈɒlədʒɪst]  美 [ˌepɪˌdiːmiˈɑːlədʒɪst]

n.流行病学家

Transmissibility

英 [trænsˌmɪsəˈbɪləti]  美 [trænsmɪsəˈbɪlɪti]

n. 传递性