【美国电台节目】明年全球经济会回暖吗？

Few people keep a closer eyeon the direction of the economy than CEOs. They have to make decisions aboutwhether to make new investments, whether to hire workers or lay them off. Andall of that depends on whether the economy is booming or headed for arecession. So it's notable that in a survey this month, 98% of CEOs say theyare preparing for a recession in the next year or a year and a half.

STEVE ODLAND: We're findingthat our CEOs are overwhelmingly bracing for a recession, both in the U.S. andin Europe, but also a slowdown virtually everywhere else.

KELLY: And we are seeing someof that. Meta's Mark Zuckerberg recently told staff expect layoffs. FedEx isclosing stores and cutting back on delivery. Now, it's not all gloomy.Eighty-five percent of CEOs in the survey said they expect a brief and shallowrecession, but uncertainty is high.

ODLAND: So we're down to alevel now that is the lowest level of CEO confidence since the Great Recession.

KELLY: And around the world,there is lots to be worried about economically.

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KELLY: COVID-19 lockdowns inChina are still affecting global supply chains. The war in Ukraine hasdisrupted prices for oil and food, driving protests in Europe...

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KELLY: ...And warnings of aglobal hunger crisis. And, of course...

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UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER #2:Prices for just about everything continued to climb higher in September.

KELLY: ...Inflation justdoesn't seem to quit. CONSIDER THIS - it's not just the U.S. There are signs ofa downturn all around the world. And in a connected global economy, that canmake averting a crisis even trickier.

PFEIFFER: Scott, why do theythink things are getting worse?

HORSLEY: Of course, one ofthe big factors is the war in Ukraine, which continues to disrupt energy andfood supplies in many parts of the world. We also continue to feel the effectsof the pandemic with lingering lockdowns in China, for example. Here in theU.S., inflation remains stubbornly high. It's begun to spread from things likeused cars and gasoline to rent and medical care, where prices tend to be moresticky. And so far, people are still spending pretty freely. But we arebeginning to see some belt tightening. Retiree Miriam Garcia, who lives inSouth Florida, says she's gotten more careful about what she buys at thesupermarket. And she's even been cutting back on family vacations.

MIRIAM GARCIA: We were goingto take the grandchildren to Disney World, and we ended up not taking thembecause it was that expensive. I mean, it's - the prices have skyrocketedeverywhere.

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