第1587期:Our warming planet

We are all aware of climate change and how it is threatening our planet. Industrialisation, our disposable culture and population growth are some of the reasons why we are seeing average temperatures rise and more extreme weather events. And scientists are finding more evidence that the situation is getting worse.

我们都知道气候变化以及它如何威胁我们的星球。工业化、我们的一次性文化和人口增长是我们看到平均气温上升和更多极端天气事件的一些原因。科学家们正在发现更多证据表明情况正在恶化。

The rise in global temperatures is the most important thing that experts analyse. They say keeping it below 1.5 centigrade will avoid the worst climate impacts. But The World Meteorological Organisation says there’s a 20% possibility the critical mark will be broken in any one year before 2024 – and there’s a 70% chance it will be broken in one or more months in those five years.

全球气温上升是专家分析的最重要的事情。他们说将温度保持在 1.5 摄氏度以下将避免最严重的气候影响。但世界气象组织表示，在 2024 年之前的任何一年内，有 20% 的可能性会打破临界标记——在这五年内，有 70% 的可能性会在一个月或几个月内被打破。

This isn’t great news for the Arctic, where the impact will be greatest: warming by twice the global average this year. Temperatures in the Siberian Arctic reached record averages in June – one area reached more than 30C. This heat helped to fan wildfires, which in turn released 59 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. Meanwhile, in Western Europe, experts predict over the next five years rising sea levels will cause more storms.

这对北极来说不是什么好消息，那里的影响将是最大的：今年的变暖幅度是全球平均水平的两倍。西伯利亚北极地区的气温在 6 月达到创纪录的平均水平——一个地区达到了 30 摄氏度以上。这种热量有助于引发野火，进而释放出 5900 万吨二氧化碳。与此同时，在西欧，专家预测未来五年海平面上升将引发更多风暴。

But these events should not surprise us. Professor Martin Siegert from Imperial College London told the BBC this is “in line with predictions of global warming going back decades now. We don’t really need further confirmation of this problem, but here it is anyway.” He thinks if you change the weather in the Arctic you are likely to see the effects ripple out around the world.

但这些事件不应该让我们感到惊讶。伦敦帝国理工学院的 Martin Siegert 教授告诉 BBC，这“与几十年前全球变暖的预测一致。我们真的不需要进一步确认这个问题，但无论如何它就是这样。”他认为，如果你改变北极的天气，你很可能会看到影响波及全世界。

We know that carbon emissions from human activities is partly to blame for our warming planet, but it seems measures to reduce this are not having much effect. The BBC’s Justin Rowlatt writing about the effects of events in the Arctic, says: “Climate scientists simply don’t know for certain what those effects are likely to be, but climate models suggest they will lead to more extreme weather events – heatwaves and severe storms.”

我们知道，人类活动产生的碳排放是地球变暖的部分原因，但减少碳排放的措施似乎收效甚微。 BBC 的贾斯汀·罗拉特 (Justin Rowlatt) 在撰写有关北极事件影响的文章时说：“气候科学家根本无法确定这些影响可能是什么，但气候模型表明它们将导致更极端的天气事件——热浪和严重的风暴。”

词汇表

threaten 威胁
planet 地球
industrialisation 工业化
disposable culture 一次性文化
average temperature 平均温度
extreme weather 极端天气
global temperatures 全球气温
centigrade 摄氏度
climate impacts 气候变化的影响
The World Meteorological Organisation 世界气象组织
the Arctic 北极圈
the Siberian Arctic 西伯利亚北极地区
heat 热度，高温
fan 引起，激起
carbon dioxide 二氧化碳
rising sea levels 海平面上升
global warming 全球气候变暖
ripple out 蔓延
carbon emissions 碳排放
heatwave 热浪，酷热期
severe storm 强烈风暴