04.《论大战略》On Grand Strategy

Today we're talking about the book On Grand Strategy. Strategy is actually a very strange word. Everyone is familiar with it. But then again, we each have our own understanding of it. The definition of strategy in this book is that what is called strategy is actually a balance. For example, a balance between objectives and capabilities, between depth and breadth, and so on. In other words, the thing about strategy is that it is like a scale. The master of strategy is not the one who has a lot of weights, but the one who is able to put all the weights on the right pallets so that the scale is always balanced.
For specific examples, of course, you can go and listen to our official interpretation version. Here, we will mainly talk about those, outside the book, interesting things contributed by users.
The author of this book, John Lewis Gaddis, has been described by the New York Times as a "titan of Cold War historiography".
He is not one of the first scholars to study the Cold War, which is a particularly popular topic in academic circles.
There are three schools of thought on the Cold War, the first of which is known as the "orthodox" school of Cold War history. They blamed the Soviet Union for the Cold War, arguing that it was the Soviet Union's expansionist policies in the post-war period that forced the United States and the West to respond.
Then came the "revisionists", who in turn held the US primarily responsible for the Cold War.John Lewis Gaddis, on the other hand, is part of a third school of Cold War historians, the "post-revisionists", who argue that both sides are responsible for the 50th anniversary of the Cold War, or that there were many factors that led to the Cold War, and that one cannot simply say who was more responsible. 
It is worth noting that Gaddis did not always adhere to his 'post-revisionist' views, and that his thinking has gradually changed since the end of the Cold War, moving closer and closer to the orthodox view.
Unlike most historians, Gaddis was more concerned with theoretical thinking and methodological issues, and understood not only international political theory, but also that historical research cannot be separated from strategic research, which is one of the reasons why he was qualified to write a work like On Grand Strategy.
Well, with that background out of the way, let us return to the book. The theme is On Grand Strategy. Some people may think that the word strategy is slightly far away from us ordinary people, after all, grand strategy, for big things. But as an entrepreneur, as a manager, the most important job is to "strategise" - to formulate strategies and to grasp them. And this is often the least easy to do.
Many aspects of business management are traceable, but strategy, like walking a tightrope, we are always looking for balance, and if we are not careful, we may lose all our work and fall off a cliff.
This balance is not static, but dynamic and ever-changing. Because external influences change all the time during the implementation of a strategy, objectives and competencies need to be adapted and aligned, especially to prevent a disconnect between them. To do this requires "good judgement" and "balanced behaviour" - in short, the use of common sense. Grand strategy is about aligning potentially unlimited expectations with necessarily limited capabilities.
译文：
今天我们来聊聊《论大战略》这本书。战略其实是个很奇怪的词。每个人对它都很熟。但是，我们又各有各的理解。这本书对战略的定义是，所谓战略，其实是一种平衡。比如，目标和能力之间的平衡，深度和广度之间的平衡，等等。换句话说，战略这件事，就像一个天平。而战略的高手，不是某一种砝码特别多，而是，他能把所有的砝码，放到适当的托盘上，让这个天平始终保持平衡。
当然，具体的例子，你可以去听我们的正式解读版。在这里，我们主要说说由用户贡献的那些，书外的，有意思的事情。
本书作者约翰·刘易斯·加迪斯，被《纽约时报》誉为“冷战史学泰斗”。
在学界，冷战研究是一个特别热门的话题，他不是第一批研究冷战的学者。
冷战研究分为三派，第一派冷战史研究者被称作“正统派”。他们把冷战的责任归咎于苏联，认为是苏联在战后奉行的扩张主义政策，导致美国和西方不得不做出回应。
后来又出现了“修正派”，这批人反过来认为美国应对冷战负主要责任。
而约翰·刘易斯·加迪斯偏向于第三派冷战史研究者，也就是“后修正派”，该派认定，要对美苏各打五十大板，双方都有责任，或者说导致冷战的因素很多，不能简单地说谁的责任更大。 
值得一提的是，其实加迪斯并没有始终坚持他的“后修正派”观点，冷战结束以来，他的思想逐渐发生了变化，越来越接近正统派的观点。
与大多数史学家不同，加迪斯比较重视理论思考和方法论问题，不仅了解国际政治理论，更懂得历史研究离不开战略研究的道理，这也是他为什么有资格写《论大战略》这种著作的原因之一。
好，说完了背景，让我们回到这本书。主题是论大战略，可能有人觉得，战略这个词离我们普通人稍微有点远，毕竟，大战略，针对的是大事。，作为一个创业者，一个管理者，最重要的工作，就是“战略”——制定战略，把握战略。而这，往往是最不容易做到的。
企业管理的很多层面都是有迹可循的，唯独战略，如同走钢丝，我们一直在摇摇晃晃中寻找平衡，一不小心就有可能前功尽弃，掉下万丈悬崖。
这种平衡不可能一成不变，而是动态的和不断变化的。因为在战略的执行过程中，外部的影响因素随时都在发生变化，目标与能力需要互相适应和配合，尤其要防止两者脱节。要做到这一点，需要拥有“好的判断力”和“均衡的行为”，简言之，就是运用常识。大战略，就是潜在无限的期望与必然有限的能力保持一致。