2022美股要跌10%？

Scott: Farmer Jim, I begin with you, theman formerly known as Mr. All In. He should just be known as a symbol right now,you get off being Mr. All In, just as the market starts to take off, Jim. Whatgives?

Jim: Scott, you are incorrigible, my friend.Uh, don't give me any credit.

Scott: I mean it's the facts.

Jim: I was for like 99% of this run. But,okay all right, listen, here's what's going to happen: we are having this endof year run. I have already started to trim and next week I will start to trim.I think the market's going to go higher next year but these are the facts:we're up 29% year to date, we're up 21% on average the last two years, 17% overthe last 10 years. Guys, that just can't continue, and what's the catalyst thatbrings it down. It's really simple it's just that the Fed has turned a littlehawkish now. Nobody needs to lose their mind about it. I'm not losing my mindabout it, but next week I'm going to trim some out.

Scott: You're not losing your mind you'renot losing your mind but you might lose some money you're not losing your mindbut you may lose some money. Jim, what do you think is going to happen? Theball is going to drop in times square, and j-pal is going to raise interestrates?

Jim: No Scott, here's what I think is goingto happen, and I think honestly you could listen to me and maybe learnsomething here. Okay you need a catalyst to come down, you need a catalyst andthe Fed is it, okay? Their taper is going to be done by March, they're makingnoise about raising interest rates. Look, I'm not saying you're gonna, you'renot gonna have a good 2022, but I do fully expect a 10% plus correction in thefirst quarter, and what I will not do is write it down and then sell shares andsay, oh, look at me I'm so cute I'm selling here and buying there. No, you gotto sell when they're high, that's how this game works. So I'm going to trimnext week, I already started by taking out Northrop Grumman, I'll trim thosetrading shares in Apple next week, I'll raise about 10% cash and I'll have mydry powder and you and I can have our fun going back and forth as the firstquarter develops.

Scott: All right, I mean I like the bazookayou're firing back in me. I can take it, that's all good. Kevin O’Leary, it'sgood to see you again, uh my man it's been a while how about this strategy? FarmerJim's already driving his tractor out of the exit, or should we be doing that,are we ahead of ourselves or is it it's so good now, that we better you knowstart to lighten up a little bit take advantage of this move we've had into theend of the year?

Kevin: Well I'm a farmer Jim fan but I'lltake the other side of that coin right now, and here's why. You know right now,think of the big picture, we're going to print just under six percent GDPgrowth Q4. Because of the confusion around covid and how long it's going tolast and what would do the global economy over the next quarter, the printshave been cut down below 3% for Q1, now I think that's way too pessimistic, so I'mgoing to stay constructive stocks. The problem with going to cash right now isyou're going to lose five and a half percent of its value every 12 months,that's the tax of inflation. We now have this bill that's dead build backbatter is gone which is really good. We've got total gridlock in Washingtonreally good, and at the same time let's say Pes, price earning ratio by 24% onthe SP right now, let's say we get no PE expansion. Earnings, I believe areunderestimated for Q1, Q2. I think we'll get eight percent next year inearnings growth, why wouldn't you want to stay constructive in stock? Jim istrying to time the market he will pay a horrible price for that. I will let himcry on my shoulder later.

Jim: It's hard for me to pay for horrible prices.I raised 10 cash okay, if I'm 90% invested and the market goes up 20% I'll beup 18%, I'll cry myself to sleep every night.