2022年经济工作关键在“稳”| Economic Stability to be Focus in 2022

2022年经济工作关键在“稳”| Economic Stability to be Focus in 2022

Economic stability will be the top priority of China's policymakers next year, as they are expected to roll out supportive measures ahead of schedule to shore up growth against strong headwinds and will likely set 5 percent as the bottom line for GDP growth for 2022, experts said on Sunday.

当地时间12月12日，多位专家表示，明年经济工作关键在“稳”，预计提前推出支持性措施，抵御强劲阻力，且预测2022年GDP增长底线为5%。

Policymakers will intensify fiscal spending to boost domestic demand and increase infrastructure investment and are likely to fine-tune regulatory measures in the energy sector to stabilize production and growth, they said.

专家表示，决策者将加大财政支出以提振内需，增加基础设施投资，且预计微调能源部门监管措施以稳定生产和增长。

China's top leadership acknowledged that the country is facing threefold pressure from contraction of demand, supply shocks and weaker expectations, and it pledged to safeguard economic stability amid rising domestic and external challenges at the tone-setting annual Central Economic Work Conference, which concluded on Friday.

中国最高领导层表示“中国经济面临需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力”，并于年度定调中央经济工作会议上承诺，在国内外挑战不断加剧的情况下维持经济稳定。中央经济工作会议于当地时间12月10日结束。

Top policymakers at the meeting decided that supportive policies should be implemented ahead of schedule, and all regions and departments should actively roll out policies, according to a statement released after the meeting.

据会议结束后发布的声明，与会最高决策者决定，支持性政策要提前实施，各地区和部门应积极出台政策。

Experts said that the emphasis on economic stability signals that China will pursue a more pro-growth policy to avoid deep economic slowdown, as the world's second-largest economy is likely to face strong downward pressure in the first half of next year before rebounding in the second half.

专家们表示，明年上半年，中国可能面临强大下行压力，下半年好转，而“稳字当头”表明中国将采取更有利于增长的政策以避免经济明显放缓。

Most economists agreed that setting a reasonable growth target for next year is important for the government to better anchor the weakened market expectations. Policy support needs to be further intensified, because the Chinese economy may continue to be threatened by weaker growth of consumption and investment, disruptions of the supply chain, resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the negative spillover effect of developed economies exiting their ultra-loose policies, they said.

大多数经济学家认为，为明年设定合理的增长目标，对政府更好地锚定疲软的市场预期非常重要。专家表示，中国经济可能继续受到以下威胁：消费和投资增长放缓、供应链中断、新冠疫情再次爆发以及发达经济体退出超宽松政策所带来的负面溢出效应，政府需要进一步加大财政支持力度。

Zhang Lianqi, a member of the Standing Committee of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, China's top political advisory body, said China may set next year's GDP growth target at around 5.5 percent year-on-year, with 5 percent growth expected to be the bottom line.

政协十三届全国委员会常委张连起表示，预计将明年中国GDP增长目标定为同比增长5.5%左右，而5%的增长预期是底线。

"Stability will be the top focus of economic policies in 2022," Zhang said.

张连起表示，2022年经济工作关键在“稳”。

The key economic meeting also stressed the importance of strengthening policy coordination, sticking with a systemic approach and improving policy effectiveness, which were seen as signs that policymakers will work to avoid any negative effect of its regulatory policies that could weigh on economic growth, experts said.

专家表示，中央经济工作会议还强调了必须加强统筹协调，坚持系统观念，确保政策有效，突显了政策制定者在努力避免监管政策对经济增长产生任何负面影响。

Han Wenxiu, a senior official with the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs, said on Saturday that the government should be cautious about unveiling policies that could trigger economic contraction. The government should also avoid launching policies that are reasonable separately but could have negative effects as a whole, he added.

当地时间12月11日，中央财经委员会办公室分管日常工作副主任韩文秀表示，在公布可能引发经济收缩的政策时，政府应保持谨慎。他补充说，政府还应“避免局部合理政策叠加后造成负面效应”。

Wu Chaoming, chief economist at Chasing Securities, said that the country is expected to fine-tune regulations in areas such as the property market and capital expansion in certain sectors to foster well-regulated and healthy development, instead of launching stern regulatory moves that could trigger contractions of economic activities.

财信证券首席经济学家伍超明表示，预计中国会微调对房地产市场等领域和某些行业资本扩张的监管以促进市场规范发展，而不会采取可能引发经济活动收缩的严厉监管措施。

It is necessary to prevent industrial regulations from diluting macro policy support and aggravating economic downside risks, Wu said.

伍超明表示，有必要防止行业监管削弱宏观政策的支持效果和加剧经济下行风险。

Looking forward, a more proactive fiscal policy can be expected as the government will launch additional tax and fee cuts to alleviate financial burdens on smaller enterprises and ensure stable employment. Public spending and the issuance of local government bonds will also be accelerated to boost infrastructure investment, said Wen Bin, chief researcher at China Minsheng Bank.

未来，政府预计将出台更加积极的财政政策，推出更多税费减免措施，减轻小型企业的财务负担并保障就业稳定。民生银行首席研究员温彬表示，将会加快发行公共支出和地方政府债券以促进基础设施投资。

China's monetary policy will maintain a flexible stance to ensure ample liquidity, and additional reduction of banks' reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts remain viable options of the Chinese central bank if the economy further decelerates in the first half of next year, Wen said.

温彬表示，中国的货币政策将保持灵活立场，确保充足的流动性。如果明年上半年经济继续减速，央行会进一步降准降息。

重点词汇：

fine-tune

英 [ˌfaɪn ˈtjuːn]；美[ˌfaɪn ˈtuːn]  

vt. 对…微调

dilute

英 [daɪˈluːt]；美[daɪˈluːt]  

vt. 稀释；冲淡；削弱；降低；使降低效果

adj. 稀释了的；冲淡了的

stance

英 [stæns]；美[stæns]  

n. 立场；（公开表明的）观点；态度；（尤指体育运动中的）站立姿势

viable

英 [ˈvaɪəbl]；美[ˈvaɪəbl]  

adj. 可行的；能独立发展的；可生长发育的