黄金时代的至暗时刻

Humanprogress has continued to advance exponentially since the Enlightenment. And itisn't stopping, despite what will be a particularly severe yet ultimatelytemporary slowdown caused the by the COVID-19 pandemic.

启蒙运动以来，人类的发展呈几何时增长。即使在新冠肺炎肆虐的当下，这种发展也没有停止。

It'seasy to forget — especially since many people never fully realized — thatvirtually every vulnerability our species endures, other than this recentoutbreak, has on average continued retreating across the globe over the pastcenturies, decades and years.

很多人已经忘记，或者从未意识到，人类在几百年来经历过的其它灾难。

Thatgoes for the proverbial Four Horsemen — War, Famine, Pestilence and Death.

灾难的罪魁祸首就是战争、饥荒、瘟疫和死亡。

Fewerpeople than ever are dying in conflicts around the planet.

越来越少的人死于这些灾难。

Fewerare starving. Average life expectancy has doubled over the past century, andthe child mortality rate has been halved over the past two decades.

因饥饿死亡的人数下降了。过去一百年人类的平均寿命成倍增加，过去二十年儿童死亡率也减半。

Evendeaths by lightning strikes are down.

中风的死亡率也下降了。

And,yes, we should still remember that fewer people than ever are contracting anddying from diseases, with COVID-19 as an exception — for now.

疾病致死率也在下降，除了目前的新冠肺炎。

It'sworth appreciating that this progress ultimately means there has never been abetter time for such a global crisis as this pandemic to occur, given theadvancements in science, technology and public health.

幸亏病毒导致的国际危机发生在这个科技和公共卫生水平都更加发达的时代。

Thetechnical aptitudes needed in every component of overcoming COVID-19 — whileobstinately far from perfect — are more sophisticated than at any time inhistory.

战胜病毒所需的技术手段都比历史上任何时期都先进，尽管我们这些技术还并不完美。

Andthat means it'll be all the sooner — although nobody can say exactly when —that we'll look back at the pandemic's impact as a solemn but surmountablesetback on what remains an upward trajectory of human progress. That is,ultimately, a few unusually rough years.

这意味着我们迟早会战胜病毒，在未来回顾时，会记得这段已经被克服的挫折。

Andbeyond our recently developed technical competencies remains the ancient andinnate resilience of human beings. It has been intrinsic to us as long as we'vebeen a species and originated in our evolutionary genealogy long before.

除了科技进步之外，人类在进化过程中发展出很强的适应力。

Ascognitive scientist Steven Pinker points out in an interview with the UK'sChannel 4 News in mid-April: "Although it seems now like nothing will everbe the same because we're in the midst of the worst of it, but when the curveis bent, when the pandemic has wreaked its toll, and life returns to normal,all of the forces that made us connected in the first place aren't going to goaway."

认知领域的科学家StevenPinker在四月中旬接受英国四频道采访时表示，虽然一切似乎都会改变，但疫情过后生活将回归正轨，一开始连接我们的力量都会继续存在。

Pinkeris among a growing movement of public intellectuals, called the "NewOptimists", promoting awareness of how far human progress has advanced andanticipation that exponential improvement will persist.

Pinker和很多学者一样属于“新乐观派”。他们认为人类的发展速度依然会很快。

Thinkerslike him, including Oxford economist Max Roser, late Swedish statistician HansRosling and US journalist Nicholas Kristof, point out that progress isincremental and long term, while disasters are sudden and relatively shortterm.

持相同观点的人还有牛津大学经济学家MaxRoser、瑞典已故统计学家HansRosling和美国记者NicholasKristof。他们指出人类发展是长期递增的过程，而灾难只是突发和相对短期的。

Progressis a slow burn. Disasters are abrupt flare-ups.

发展是循序渐进，而灾难是突然发生。

Consequently,advancement isn't apparent in the public consciousness, although the datairrefutably prove it's real. It's a situation in which cognitive biases obscureobjective reality.

虽然数据证实发展是真实存在的，但公众的认知较少，因此主观偏见会模糊客观事实。

A2015 YouGov poll, for instance, found 65 percent of UK and 81 percent of Frenchrespondents believed the world was getting worse overall. Pinker's researchfinds that majorities in a sample of 14 mostly wealthy countries agreed.

例如2015年的一项调查显示，65%的英国人和81%的法国人相信世界在向不好的方向发展。认知领域专家Pinker研究发现，14个最发达国家的多数民众都持这种观点。

Chinaseems to be the only major country surveyed where most people were optimistic,The Guardian reports.

《卫报》的报道显示，中国似乎是唯一个多数民众持乐观态度的国家。

Andthe outbreak seems to have expanded intercontinental pessimism.

此次疫情的爆发也助长了全球消极情绪。

"Punditrygoes into overdrive, and we imagine the disruption we're facing now will bepermanent," Pinker says.

Pinker表示，大家认为目前的困难将会永远存在。

"Butthere's a massive tendency to slip back into life as normal. And I think thatwill be the overwhelming tendency."

但很多迹象表明生活会回归正轨，我认为这是最终趋势。

Certainly,we're living through the darkest moments of the brightest of times.

我们这个最好的时代，在经历最黑暗的时刻。

Butto recognize that, especially amid the pandemic, we must deliberately looktoward the light to see the beacon of tomorrow shining across ages before andto come.

但我们要认识到必须向着光明前进。