头条英文播报｜Experts say lower GDP no problem

A view of Shanghai. [Photo/VCG]

Policymakers expected to be flexible in their drive for high-quality growth

Chinese policymakers will likely be more flexible when setting next year's growth target, showing greater tolerance for slower growth in exchange for policy leeway to carry out longer-term reform objectives that are crucial to the country's high-quality development, analysts said on Sunday.

Top leaders in Beijing will gather at the annual Central Economic Work Conference, scheduled for later this month, to discuss economic and reform plans in detail. The meeting will set China's economic agenda and the overall policy tone for the coming year.

Most economists expect the policy tone to emphasize quality growth over speed, with more flexible and targeted efforts that focus on ensuring an orderly economic deceleration and strike the right balance between maintaining stable growth and containing economic risks.

That policy stance was reflected on Friday in a statement by the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee. It said the basic trend of steady long-term growth for China's economy remains unchanged, and it emphasized the need to keep macroeconomic policies stable and microeconomic measures flexible.

A pledge emerged from the meeting to make policies more preemptive, targeted and effective, including better use of countercyclical tools to ease downside risks.

While stabilizing growth is an important task for the central government, economists have been debating whether China's policy priority next year should be preventing GDP growth from falling below 6 percent.

Some believe that a growth target above 6 percent will involve a large-scale stimulus, which would mean substantial policy easing, further buildup of debt and higher financial risks. Such measures could give the economy an immediate boost but could also produce serious side effects and delay the reforms necessary for China to achieve high-quality development.

Qu Tianshi, China economist at Bloomberg Economics, said that a GDP growth rate below 6 percent is not something to worry about, as China is still capable of achieving the goal of doubling its 2010 GDP and per capita income for urban and rural residents by 2020 even with slightly slower growth.

"Given the broader context of a global economic slowdown, even if China's GDP growth falls below 6 percent, the speed is still much faster than the average level of the world's major economies," Qu said.

"Our view is that as long as policy efforts ensure stable employment and corporate profitability, growth quality is more important than speed."

Some economists expect that the government may opt for a lower GDP target next year in exchange for more policy flexibility, and they will likely tolerate a higher level of inflation and deficit spending to shore up growth. China's policymakers may leave monetary policy unchanged and continue with their prudent and more targeted approach, they said.

"We believe the overall policy tone is likely to be a continuation of the recent tone," said Yu Song, chief economist at Beijing GaoHua Securities, a subsidiary of US bank Goldman Sachs in China.

Song expected the GDP target for next year to be lowered to "around" 6 percent — that is, from "6.0 to 6.5 percent" this year — while the fiscal deficit target for 2020 may be raised to 3 percent from 2.8 percent this year.

Reform measures, including greater opening of the agriculture and services sectors and more protection of intellectual property rights, will likely get priority, Song said in a research note.

Meanwhile, robust growth in the service sector and domestic consumption will continue to drive China's overall growth and provide a cushion for any external shocks and downside pressure from slower manufacturing growth and a cooling property market, economists said.

"The service sector will continue to provide an important cushion for the Chinese economy, not only in terms of growth rate but also in terms of employment. In addition, domestic demand remains relatively stable, which is also a positive factor that should not be ignored," Bloomberg's Qu said.

"Our policy suggestion is that China should focus on pushing longer-term reform objectives, including improving productivity and investment efficiency. In the short run, government efforts should aim at stabilizing growth, with a more proactive fiscal policy and a slight loosening of its monetary stance, while remaining vigilant for any financial risks."

Global investors appear unafraid of a slowing China, and many are gauging opportunities emerging from the country's economic upgrade.

"We welcome a slower growth outlook for China," said Bin Shi, head of China equities at UBS Asset Management. "That's because China's economy is slowing as it moves to more sustainable growth driven by domestic demand and services. So we're not scared off by slower growth."

Shi said investors should focus on long-term growth drivers in China, such as the rising demand for elderly care, medical products and insurance brought by an aging population, as well as the country's thriving automation and robotics industry, which is changing the way companies do business and provide services.

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记者：李想

播报：Corrie Knight

原文链接：

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201912/09/WS5ded64f6a310cf3e3557caa1.html

【阅读背景】

政治局会议勾勒明年经济政策要点:经济向好基本趋势不变

     中共中央政治局12月6日召开会议，分析研究2020年经济工作。会议强调，当前和今后一个时期，我国经济稳中向好、长期向好的基本趋势没有变。在研判形势的基础上，会议也对全面做好“六稳”工作、坚决打好三大攻坚战、加快现代化经济体系建设等方面作出部署。

　　业内人士表示，明年是全面建成小康社会和“十三五”规划收官之年，本次会议对形势的判断让市场吃了“定心丸”，对明年经济工作的部署彰显了中央进一步加快改革和开放的决心。具体而言，助推农业、制造业、服务业高质量发展的政策将进一步升级，区域经济的政策支持力度有望再度加码，财政政策、货币政策也将进一步用好逆周期调节工具。

         经济向好基本趋势不变

　　当前和明年的经济形势怎么看？会议强调，当前和今后一个时期，我国经济稳中向好、长期向好的基本趋势没有变。我们要坚持用辩证思维看待形势发展变化，增强必胜信心，善于把外部压力转化为深化改革、扩大开放的强大动力，集中精力办好自己的事。

　　“今年以来，我国经济总体来说呈现符合预期、总体合理、稳中有进的态势。”谈及当前经济形势的基本特点，国务院发展研究中心副主任张军扩指出。

　　他表示，“稳”表现在增长、物价、就业、国际收支等宏观经济核心指标均保持在相对合理区间。前三季度GDP达6.2%，CPI为2.5%，前10月城镇新增就业已超额完成全年1100万目标，进出口也保持了基本平衡状态。“在国内外发展环境十分复杂的环境下，四个核心宏观经济指标能够取得这样的成绩，十分不易。”另一方面，“进”表现在经济结构继续优化、营商环境继续改善、民生继续改善等三个方面。

　　国家发改委学术委研究员、中国国际经济交流中心首席研究员张燕生对《经济参考报》记者表示，会议作出的形势判断和对明年的定调，给了大家吃了“定心丸”，让大家更有信心。无论明年世界环境怎么变，中国都会按照原定计划实现第一个百年目标，打赢三大攻坚战，实现全面建成小康社会，保持经济运行在合理区间。作为负责任的大国，中国将给世界经济提供动力。

　　中国民生银行(6.190, 0.01, 0.16%)首席研究员温彬表示，会议对明年经济形势做出新的判断。2020年是全面建成小康社会和“十三五”规划收官之年，会议指出明年所处的时间节点和坐标方位，实际上也就锁定了重要经济发展目标。会议突出以改革开放作为经济主要动力，彰显了中央对2020年加快改革开放的决心。同时，进一步突出了保稳定的底线。

　　“保稳定”预示逆周期调节加力

　　值得注意的是，与去年年底的中央政治局会议相比，今年的会议有一些新提法，也凸显了明年经济工作的诸多要点。

　　温彬表示，与去年会议相比，增加了“保稳定”要求。一方面是因为今年部分企业经营困难，需要更加关注；另一方面，也是底线思维的体现。

　　厦门大学宏观经济研究中心副主任林致远对《经济参考报》记者也表示，新增“保稳定”的提法，是要切实维持经济增长的稳定，确保不发生系统性金融风险。在实现途径上，再次强调要运用好逆周期调节工具。

　　货币政策方面，央行日前发布的《2019年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》称，保持定力，继续实施好稳健的货币政策，创新和完善金融宏观调控，加强逆周期调节，坚持在推动高质量发展中防范化解风险，妥善应对经济短期下行压力，同时坚决不搞“大水漫灌”。

　　工银国际首席经济学家、董事总经理程实对《经济参考报》记者表示，2020年货币政策旨在以逆周期调控将经济稳定于合理范围。央行的总量型工具将维持稳健政策基调。同时，央行将在结构性工具上发力，以缓解局部社会信用收缩压力和流动性风险。具体操作上，2020上半年，定向降准有望成为优先的政策工具。待年中通胀压力回落之后，货币政策操作空间会显著扩张。

　　财政政策方面，近期财政部提前下达了2020年部分新增专项债务限额1万亿元。日前召开的国务院常务会议也提出降低部分基础设施项目最低资本金比例。业内人士预期，明年财政政策将更积极，体现为逆周期调节的加码。

　　“高质量发展”内涵有所增加

　　针对“高质量发展”，此次会议也有新表述。会议指出，要加快现代化经济体系建设，推动农业、制造业、服务业高质量发展，加强基础设施建设，推动形成优势互补高质量发展的区域经济布局，提升科技实力和创新能力，深化经济体制改革，建设更高水平开放型经济新体制。

　　温彬表示，会议提出“推动农业、制造业、服务业高质量发展”，与去年只强调制造业高质量发展相比，2020年农业和服务业的行业改革开放、市场规范透明和企业改造升级，都将超过今年。

　　林致远也表示，“推动形成优势互补高质量发展的区域经济布局”这一新提法，表明决策层十分注重区域之间的平衡和协调发展，优势区域的政策支持力度有望再度加码。

　　值得注意的是，中共中央、国务院刚刚印发了《长江三角洲区域一体化发展规划纲要》。国家发展改革委副主任罗文在6日的国务院新闻办新闻发布会表示，通过深入推进区域一体化推动高质量发展、通过高质量发展促进更深层次一体化，努力形成高质量发展的区域集群，在全国发展版图上不断增添高质量发展板块。

　　会议也再次强调“建设更高水平开放型经济新体制”。张燕生表示，总体来说，就是要推进更高质量的发展、更高标准的改革、更高水平的开放。他说，第二届进口博览会上提出要继续扩大市场开放、继续完善开放格局、继续优化营商环境、继续深化多双边合作、继续推进共建“一带一路”等五方面的开放举措，同时提出共建开放合作的世界经济、共建开放创新的世界经济、共建开放共享的世界经济等三个方面倡议。这事实上已经勾勒出下一步更高水平开放的整体框架，这些举措和倡议都是针对新形势、国际环境的新变化提出的，是一个全新的、层次更高、统筹国际国内的开放体系。

中文原文链接：

http://www.xinhuanet.com/2019-12/09/c_1125323159.htm

中文来源：新华网