4. KK直播精华版(下)-KK谈为什么开设音频专栏
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4. KK直播精华版(下)-KK谈为什么开设音频专栏

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The Internet is growing more like a city, than like an organism. It’s more like an eco-system, rather than a starfish, or a rabbit.


直播音频为剪辑精华版,以下内容为直播速录完整版。


嘉敏我们看到有观众不停地说外面风太大,声音比较小,所以我们现在找一个安静一些、明亮一些的地方,继续下半场。Shall we go to your hotel?


李大巍:Jiamin,Kevin, I have a friend from Mr. Cui, from Internet, he said, if we got internet as a creature, how can we describe the internet in the biological?

有个网上的朋友崔先生问,如果我们把网络看做是生物,那么我们怎么用生物学来描述它?


KK:There is a guy that studies organizations, of bacteria, to the city, to the Internet, the humans, all kinds of things. There are two kinds of things, organisms and eco-systems.

我认识一位研究组织的学者,他的研究范围小至细菌,大到城市、互联网乃至整个人类。世界上有两类组织:生物个体与生态系统。


李大巍:这个问题的确很难,如果从生物学上看互联网,是什么样子的?凯文原来在《失控》那本书里做过类似的研究,他说有一个学者曾经调查过,如果以一个组织机构的角度来看——他研究过飞机、组织、国家和公司——所有国家分为两种,一种像生物一样,慢慢成长,另一种像生态系统一样。


KK:The Internet is growing more like a city, than like an organism. It’s more like an eco-system, rather than a starfish, or a rabbit. So what it means that all organisms have life spans, they all die. But eco-systems and cities continue on almost forever. He discovered that companies are more like organisms, but Internet is different, it’s like a jungle, a city.

互联网的扩张方式更类似城市和雨林这样的生态系统,而非海星、兔子这样的生物个体。所有个体生物都是有生命周期的,它们都会死。但是生态系统和城市能够几乎永远存在下去。他发现,公司类似于生物个体,但互联网是不一样的,互联网就像丛林,像城市。


李大巍:先说结论,凯文·凯利认识一个学者,研究室互联网像一个城市,生态系统,不会死掉,公司像一个生物,有成长、衰老变化死亡的过程。所以如果用生态来看互联网,互联网更像一个雨林而不是城市,不断成长变化,但是不会死掉,这是如果从生物学角度看互联网。


KK:Anybody believes that their current jobs will be around in next twenty five years.

有多少人相信,自己的工作在25年后依然存在呢?你们现在的工作是什么呢?


嘉敏:Kevin的问题是,现在在观看的朋友们,有没有人认为自己现在从事的职业在未来二十五年内还会存在。


KK:What is your job right now?

你现在做的职业是什么?


KK:The question is about how innovation is affecting your livelihood, and most people think most jobs will not be around in the next twenty-five or fifty years. But they all believe that their jobs will be secure.

这个问题关注的是,创新会对生计造成什么影响。大多数人都认为,大部分工作在二十五年后都会不复存在,但却相信自己的工作仍然存在。


嘉敏:So, there are... someone give me some answers. So, teacher, ok, 对,Kevin刚才说因为很多人都在想,很多工作二十五年之后都不会存在了,但几乎所有人都会想,自己的工作,自己在做的事情,二十五年后仍然存在。这是刚才Kevin说的最后的这段话。那么我说这里面有一些这个朋友的回答啊,有一些是说做教师的,这个teacher,有说做程序员的,programmer,有说做建筑设计的,architect design, ok.


李大巍:Here is a good one, artists.

这有个好答案,艺术家。


KK:I actually agree that artists, teachers, programmers will have jobs in the twenty five or fifty years. They will just be different. I’m not worried about the jobs that will be lost. Because I think there will be many new jobs replacing them. Teachers, programmers will work in different ways, they will have different tasks, but they will definitely have jobs in the future.

我认为艺术家、教师、程序员的岗位在25或50年后依然会存在,只是不会和现在完全一样。我不担心现有岗位的消失,因为会有新岗位替代它们。教师和程序员会以不同于现在的方式工作,承担新的任务,但未来肯定会继续存在。


嘉敏:Kevin说呢,他同意教师、程序员这样的工作二十五年后仍然会存在,可能会以稍微不同的方式存在。Ok, 他说他其实不太担心这个将来大家会失业,或者说这个丢掉自己的工作这种事情,因为将来还会有更多的新工作诞生。小心。所以这是将来更可能的一种情况。大意是这样。


李大巍:另外一个问题是大家都在问的新经济,电商发展过快,超过传统经济,我问一下他。


李大巍:Kevin,someone asks... the new economy grows so fast in China, do you think this is a good thing and what is your comment?

有人问新经济增长过快,你认为这是好事吗?


KK:I’m going to make sure that I understand. You were saying that the new economy is going so fast, maybe it’s not a good thing.

我要跟你确认一下。你刚才说新经济发展速度过快,可能不是一件好事。对吗?


KK:I don’t think it’s a bad thing. That must be that other shops are not so efficient. Maybe you don’t want efficiency, in this case you go shopping in these stores. But so far it’s not happening. I think they will do if they change, we are having the same thing in America. The Amazon is so big. There are many smaller shops go away, and many people are concerned about it. Everybody is shopping there. It’s better experience, better price, it’s an improvement. It’s good that it goes on so fast.

我不认为这是一件坏事。旧的商店消失,肯定是因为它们效率太低。你或许并不那么关心效率,在这种情况下,你会去低效的商店购物。但至少现在看没人会这么做。旧的商店必须改变才能生存下来。美国也是这样。亚马逊现在发展得很大,许多小店铺都倒闭了,许多人很担心这种情况。但大家还是会到亚马逊买东西,那里价格更便宜,服务也更好,这是一项进步。新经济发展得这么快,这是件好事啊。


李大巍:我简单说,他说这不是坏事,这在美国也同样发生,线下效率低,消费体验不好,消费者转到线上。


嘉敏:那个,我们现在回到这个大厅里面。稍微找个地方坐下来,因为这里面比较明亮,然后也没有风声。所以我们马上就接上这个话题。OK, find a place to sit down.


嘉敏:我再跟大家说两句,再重复一下。有后来加进来的朋友。非常感谢和欢迎大家来看这个直播秀。这是我们跟KK做的第一次直播秀。对我个人,对我们今天参加这个直播秀的大巍,包括Kevin本人都是第一次。所以也非常非常荣幸。然后,打个广告,这个是我们今天在喜马拉雅上线的KK的音频专栏。中文专栏,再强调一下啊。内容呢,是我们一起打造的,但是中文呢,是由我主讲。所以大家有兴趣可以来喜马拉雅购买KK的音频专栏。对,今天特价99元,只有今天。好,OK,我们去进到屋里面。


李大巍: You are meeting some entrepreneurs and scientists on robots in China, so what is your opinion on China’s robot industry?

你见了很多中国企业家、科学家,你怎么看中国机器人业。(他今天见了很多中国企业家,领先的机器人专家,科学家,我问一下他的看法。)


KK:I think it’s like what I said about innovation. It’s half way. There are a lot of activities, money flowing into it, lots of people working on it. But it’s only begun to be innovative. Now people are trying to optimize based on the industry base, to make something better, but I think robotics is far behind leading states, like Japan. But it’s trying hard.

跟我刚才对创新的看法一样。中国还在半途中。中国的机器人行业很热,吸引了大量资源和人员,但创新之路才刚刚开始。现在主要还是在原有底子的基础上逐步优化改进,与日本等领先国家还有很大差距。当然,中国人还是很努力的。


李大巍:就像刚才他提到的,中国的创新在路上,在途中,和世界先进水平有距离,但是他提到中国企业家、创业者、科学家很努力,势头很强。


嘉敏:OK,那我们现在到了一个房间里,这个房间比较明亮,也比较安静。这样大家都能听得比较清楚。然后Kevin也有一把椅子坐下来休息一下。那我们来继续啊,继续。有一个问题,我得代我们的喜马拉雅的朋友们问一下,就是关于podcast的想法,就是Kevin怎么会想到做这个podcast,做这个音频的专栏。Kevin, there’s a question from, you know, the Himalaya, why do you do this... this podcast thing, you know, instead of books or whatever?


KK:The problem with books is that fewer and fewer people are reading books. My kids don’t read books, their friends don’t read books. People are spending their time on Podcasts and YouTube. I want people to be aware that the center of the culture is not books anymore.

纸质书的问题在于,读书人越来越少。我的孩子不读书,他们的朋友也不读书。他们主要是听音频或者看视频。我希望人们注意和认识到,文化的中心已经不再是书本了。


嘉敏:Kevin的回答是,他感到现在纸质书的读者越来越少。因为人们越来越少读书了,越来越不读书了。因为他的孩子也是这样。他的孩子把时间都花在哪两个上面呢?一个就是听podcast,就是我们说的音频节目,一个就是看video,也就是视频节目。所以他希望把自己的注意力以及时间精力转到这种,所谓的文化中心上来,所以尝试这种音频栏目。


李大巍:Kevin, I have a question. Mr.Zhao, from Xiamen... the share economy has been... done a good job in China,last year, we share bicycles: ofo, Mobike, what is the future of the sharing economy like?

一位来自厦门的赵先生问:共享经济在中国很火,去年共享单车ofo、摩拜都很厉害,共享经济的未来是什么样?(共享经济在中美都很火,五年之后共享经济会是什么样?)


KK:I think there are going to be more, more things to be shared. Maybe furniture, camping equipment, sports equipment. You can use the latest equipment released this year and you clean it, give it back and pass it on without storing it in your basement or garage. I think what we see right now is keep thinking of more sectors, it could be food, clothes, houses, without buying them.

我想共享经济会继续发展,越来越多的东西会被共享,比方说家具、野营用品、运动装备等。你可以用上今年新推出的设备,用完之后清理好,还回去,再给别人用,而不用把它们堆到地下室或者车库里。我想很多行业会进入共享经济,包括食品、服装、房屋等。


李大巍:他认为共享经济会继续发展,食品、衣服、运动设施、房子,都可能成为共享经济的主体,所以未来五到十年共享经济会迎来更大的发展。


嘉敏:Here’s a question from the audience, maybe a simple one, maybe also a tough one. So, how to read your books? Read your books. Because your books are... because your books are quite difficult for some readers, so how to make it easier to read your books? 听众又提出来一个问题,说简单不简单,说复杂不复杂。怎么读您的书呢?因为您的书对一些读者来说非常难懂,有没有一种简单的方式读懂您的书呢?


KK:I think you should listen to this Podcast we are doing. We are going to take one idea from the book and spend eight minutes of examples, and reinterpretation by Jiamin. That’s one way to read my books.

来听我们的喜马拉雅音频专栏吧。在专栏中,我们会选出一个书里的观点,然后通过原文、例子和赵嘉敏的阐释,来充实为一段八分钟的音频。这是一条阅读我的书的捷径。


嘉敏:我这个问题其实不是为了要打广告。因为确实说刚才问到了音频,那么有朋友问还怎么来读KK的书。还是回到书上了,但这个问题是怎么能够比较好的,比较容易地读KK的书。那么Kevin的回答是说那就来听这个音频专栏好了。因为这个音频专栏每次只会讲一个知识点或一个话题,然后呢,又是被,就是经过一些整理和加工的,应该是更适合这个中国的听众,中国的朋友来听,来理解,所以这是无意中又给我们这个专栏打了一个广告。OK,我再打一个广告,对,因为Kevin给我们做了一个广告,谢谢。


李大巍:Mr.Wang from your readers, his 10-year-old son is asking you: how could he prepare well for the future, in item education.

你的读者王先生十岁的儿子想问,怎么通过教育去好好准备未来?


KK:I think I have to repeat what I said earlier. The primary skill you want to get in the coming world is to learn how to learn. Life-long learning, personal learning, optimized learning. Without that, the next thing that comes along, you will not be able to catch very quickly. There is going to be new operating systems, new languages, new gestures, there are going to be so many new things. Every five years, you have to keep learning and learn how to learn.

我还要再重复一遍之前说过的话。「学习如何学习」的能力是应对未来世界所需的最重要技能。终身学习,个体学习,还有优化学习。如果你不掌握这项能力,那么当下一轮洗牌发生时,你就无法迅速赶上潮流。新事物可能包括新的操作系统,新的手势,新的语言,新东西太多了。每隔五年你就必须学习一套新东西。


嘉敏:然后这是,KK实际上是再次强调了,就是说,大家一定要有这种终生学习的能力。就是说从「活到老,学到老」这句话来讲,因为将来这个变化会非常非常的快,可能每五年就出现一个新的操作系统,或者一个新的事物,如果不能够很快地去学习的话,那么一定将来是会被抛在后面的。所以呢,这种不断地去学习新事物的能力是非常非常关键的。这个回答也是Kevin再次强调了一下,因为最开始的时候,谈到这个在学校里要学什么要教什么的时候,Kevin就已经说到了,唯一要教的就是这种学习学习的能力。就是怎么样去学习,怎么样去学习新事物,怎么样去优化你的学习能力,这是最关键的。


KK:The honest answer is that you still need to know how to read, some basic ideas of math, and be able to write to communicate. These skills are important. I don’t think learning how to learn is the only thing you have to learn, but the most important. If you know how to learn, you can learn how to read if you know how to learn.

坦率地说,你依然需要掌握语文和算术。这些技能很重要。「学习如何学习」的能力不是人们所需的唯一一项技能,但却是最重要的一项。如果你掌握了它,你可以自己去学习其他技能。


嘉敏:OK,Kevin,OK.


李大巍:刚才有一个朋友问有一种说法,阅读写作能力没有之前重要了,凯文说并不是这样,无论人类发展到什么阶段,知识基础能力都是重要的,即使是社会对其他能力不同了,但是学习学习的能力还是重要的。


嘉敏:OK,this question, I know the answer, but I will ask a further question, so, 有一位朋友问,Kevin看《三体》吗?或者看其他科幻小说吗?我知道Kevin是看过《三体》的,但是我想问问他对《三体》怎么看,怎么评价的。So, have you read the Three Bodies? And how do you, you know, think of it?


KK:I’ve been asking young people in China for the best science fictions in the last few years, and I’ve gotten the same answer all the time. Three Body Problem. But it’s not available in English. A year before, it came out and I read it. It was great and wonderful in many levels. It’s very non-American; it’s written from the perspective of a Chinese writer. That is one joy. Another is that the story is very complicated, unusual, I enjoyed. I feel that I need to reread it to command what’s all inside. So I intend to read it again.

近几年来,我一直在问中国朋友一个问题:中国最好的科幻小说是什么。他们的回答总是《三体》。但当时这本书还没有英文版,一年前出来以后我就买了一本。我觉得这是一本非常非常卓越的小说。第一,它非常「不美国」,是完全从一位中国作家的视角写作的。这本身就是一项乐趣。第二,它的故事非常复杂,不同凡响,我很喜欢。我想我需要再读一遍才能完全把握《三体》,所以打算重读一遍。


嘉敏:Kevin说其实在过去的几年内,一直在问中国的朋友们,这个,哪部科幻小说是最好的。然后他得到的都是一个回答,就是这个大刘的,刘慈欣的《三体》。但是很可惜呢,那时候呢,没有英文版,一直到去年还是前年,是刘宇昆老师把这个翻译成了英文版,所以Kevin就拿,买了一本,然后就读了它。然后他觉得就非常非常的棒。他当然说这个有两个方面:第一个方面,当然这个是一个从中国作者的视角来写,那么这个呢,它也有一个中国人独特的一种感觉在里面。当然是一个原因了。Kevin说,也认为这部科幻小说背后的这个故事和这个理论,可能确实是非常吸引人的,也非常复杂,他其实是说,他有一种感觉,他还想回去再读一遍,来捋清楚这背后到底,这背后的可能蕴藏的玄机到底是什么。OK,我们差不多快到一个小时了,OK,one last question. 那我们给大巍说,再问最后一个问题。


李大巍:首先谢谢嘉敏,译言过去十年把KK的三部曲带到中国,而且在未来会带来音频等更多分享,作为读者非常感谢。


李大巍:I appreciate that Yeeyan have done a fantastic job. So my last question is about wild imagination, the day before yesterday is Mother’s day, in our theory, robot should have some emotions, how about Dr. Gan, we have been visited yesterday, how about, if he predict billions of robots regard him as their mother, can we imagine that?

我感谢译言做了这么棒的一件事。所以我最后的问题是无限的想象,前天是母亲节,按我们刚说的理论,我们认为机器人应该有感情,我们昨天拜访过的甘博士说,有数十亿机器人会把他当母亲,你能想象到吗?(前些天是中国的母亲节,某个科学家,生产了上亿个机器人,这些机器人应该怎么感谢他呢?)


KK:It’s really a good question about AI and self-awareness. They can certainly have respect or even emotions to their maker, or “mother” even without being self-aware, in the same way that cats or dogs may actually show sensations for the owner even without being self-aware. I think it’s very possible that robots are loyal or respect or honor their owner, and they don’t need to be very smart to do that. Just as smart as a cat. I would like to say that one of the metaphors about our AI is to imagine them to be cats, really smart cats. They are really capable of doing a lot of things, and intelligent in a certain way. They are able to receive love, and even give us love. So I think the robots may care for people in the library, they may have relationship with humans. It’s like a monkey that can take care of you, people will feel very strong.

这是个关于人工智能和自我意识的好问题。机器人当然可以尊敬自己的创造者,或者说「母亲」,甚至对其产生情感,就像猫狗对主人表现出感情一样,这并不需要自我意识。我想,机器人很可能会忠于和尊重自己的主人,这并不需要多高的智能。你可以把人工智能想成猫,非常聪明的猫。它们能做很多事情,还拥有一定程度的智能,能够感受爱,甚至可以回馈爱。机器人可能会在图书馆里为人们服务,在这个过程中与人产生情感练习。人工智能就像一只猴子,能照顾你的猴子。这样的话,人就会对机器人产生强烈的感情


嘉敏:行,我来大概翻译一下,有遗漏的大巍再补充啊。Kevin认为呢,就是说不一定需要很强的自我意识才能产生这种像爱啊这种情感。比如说他对AI的这种,他认为更合适的看待AI的方式,可能是把AI当做自己的宠物,所以,宠物也不需要很聪明,就能跟人类发生很强烈的感情。所以将来机器人也是一样的。比如说,将来机器人可以照顾人,那么他就跟照顾人之间产生很强烈的,这种感情。Anything else?(还有吗?)


KK:Thank you for your hosting this. Thank you, all listeners. It’s very happy to interact with you. I hope this is going to be exciting for you. Give us some feedback. I shall thank Dawei for getting me here.

感谢嘉敏组织这次活动。感谢所有听众,很高兴能与你们活动。我希望大家都能受到一些启发,我也很想收到你们的反馈。我还要感谢大巍邀请我来此次峰会。谢谢大家!


嘉敏:OK,Kevin最后就是感谢大家来观看这个直播,也非常感谢,顺带感谢了我和大巍。因为大巍把Kevin邀请到中国来。最后,Kevin希望听到大家的反馈,包括专栏的反馈,怎么样能够去改进我们这个专栏。最后再打一次广告,请大家去喜马拉雅,然后订阅KK的专栏《KK对话未来》。好,谢谢大家。

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