3. KK直播精华版(上)-KK谈“新病毒”和“一带一路”
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3. KK直播精华版(上)-KK谈“新病毒”和“一带一路”

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Learning how to learn is the primary skill that we should teach in education.


直播音频为剪辑精华版,以下内容为直播速录完整版。

嘉敏:大家好啊!我们开始直播。这是我们第一次直播,对我,对Kevin,对大巍,都是第一次。我先简单介绍一下,我是赵嘉敏,是译言网的创始人。这位是大巍,是他山石智库的创始人。最后,隆重推出的我们中间这位,Kevin Kelly,KK,这是大家今天期待已久的大神。

KK:你好吗?我是凯文·凯利。It’s my great pleasure to be live streaming to you as an experiment. We are going to talk about robots, about anything you might be interested in this evening. Let’s hear some questions.
我很高兴能进行这次直播试验。接下来,我们会讨论机器人,或者你们感兴趣的任何其他问题。请大家问问题吧。

嘉敏:需要翻译吗?需要翻译吗?(笑声)

嘉敏:OK,大家有说不需要的,有说需要的。Kevin刚才其实也是简单说了一下,他在宁波参加机器人峰会,讨论的都是与机器人和人工智能相关的话题。那么他也很高兴今天来做这个直播秀。大家有什么问题都可以问他。


李大巍:Kevin,Mr. Shao from Beijing Normal University is asking you, what is your point of view, your prospect of future in school education?
凯文,来自北京师范大学的邵先生提问,您对于未来的教育怎么看?

嘉敏:有网友问Kevin关于教育的未来。

KK:I think there is only one skill that we should teach in school. I think we should teach every person how to learn in the rest of his life. Learn how to learn. The only skill is going to be worthwhile when we don’t even know what to know in the future. Learning how to learn is the primary skill that we should teach in education. The rest of it, I think, doesn’t really matter.
我认为,学校里只应该教一项技能,那就是终生学习能力,「学习如何学习」的能力。当我们不知道未来应该去学习什么时,这就是最重要的技能。其他都是次要的。

嘉敏:OK。那我简单翻译一下。就是说,Kevin说,在学校里只要教一件事情,就是怎么去学习。而且是一生去学习,就是说,有点儿像我们说的「活到老,学到老」这句古语。KK觉得其他的事情都不是很紧要,你只要学会怎样学习就好。

李大巍:Do you think artificial intelligence and robots need to be educated in school, traditionally as we have education and we were asking about everything?
你觉得人工智能和机器人需要在学校内学习吗?传统的教育已经包含了一切。

KK:I don’t think we are going to teach AI or robots in the same way we teach humans. Of course, they need to be educated, but they should be educated in a different way, because their minds are different.
训练机器人或人工智能的方式与教育人类肯定不一样,因为它们的思维方式与人不一样。

李大巍:我刚问了个问题就是人工智能AI还有机器人是否也需要学校教育,所以刚才他提到的学校教育是否也要教人的同时还要教机器人?

嘉敏:Audiences are asking that what gonna be a next wave of wealth?
有个网友问下一波的财富在哪儿,我把这个问题抛给了KK。

KK:I think the biggest companies in the world in the next twenty years are going to be VR companies. They are going to gather a lot of data about us. They will become some of the largest companies in the world. At the high end, the extreme end, the most wealth will be made in virtual reality. But there are going to be only very few winners, so it’s not a good choice for individuals, or many individuals. As an industry, as a sector, virtual reality will make the most wealth, but it’s not a thing I recommend to each person to make the most wealth.
在接下来的二十年中,虚拟现实公司将成为全球最大的公司。它们会收集很多关于我们的数据。在最高精尖的层次上,虚拟现实将产生最多的新财富。但是只有数量很少的一些会成为最终的胜利者,所以它对个人并不是很好的选择,至少对许多人是这样。作为一个行业,虚拟行业会带来最多财富,但我并不推荐每一个想赚大钱的人去投身其中。

嘉敏:Kevin说他认为下一波的大潮应该是虚拟现实。而虚拟现实也将采集有关我们最多的数据。Kevin认为这一波财富可能不会归于某个个人,而是属于整个这个行业。所以他并不建议大家个人投身到这个行业中来。

嘉敏OK, Kevin, here’s a question. So, a friend is asking, you know, about the virus, the very strong virus recently. He is asking what if the robots affected by the virus in the future?
Kevin,有个新问题。有网友问有关病毒的问题,就是最近爆发的超强病毒。他的问题是,如果将来机器人感染了病毒怎么办?

KK:Right. What if they have a ransomware for your robots? They stop working until you pay the ransom.
没错。如果出现了针对机器人的勒索病毒怎么办?只要不付钱,你的机器人就一直罢工。

嘉敏:That’s possible.
很可能会。

KK:I think that’s very likely. That would happen for sure.
我想这很有可能发生。

嘉敏:what we can do?
那我们怎么办?

KK:What we should do? Pay.
我们要怎么办?掏钱吧。

嘉敏:We pay?!
交钱?!(笑声)

李大巍:我解释一下,凯文·凯利说呢,很有可能机器人将来感染类似的病毒,唯一的办法可能就是它要多少钱给它多少钱。

大巍:But Kevin,negotiate with the robots?
但是凯文,不能跟机器人谈判吗?

KK:You will have another robot that negotiate for you.
你会有专门的砍价机器人的。

李大巍:我们可以培养一批机器人帮着来跟其他的机器人来砍价。这个也是未来的创业方向,大家可以试一下。

KK:It’s a good point about the fact that if we start to depend on the robots, then when they don’t work, that’s going to be very devastating to us. For sure, people will try to take over other people’s robots. I think people will do that. That will be an issue. Security for robots will be a big thing. We are teaching in businesses that we should not open emails by strangers. Now we should teach robots not to open emails, talk to or interactive with other robots. Don’t talk to strangers.
如果我们开始依赖机器人,那么它们一旦罢工就是大麻烦。这是一个很好的点。当然会有人尝试控制别人的机器人,这是一个问题。机器人安全会成为一个热门行业。在企业里,我们会教员工不要打开陌生邮件。现在我们也需要教机器人不要打开陌生邮件,不要与陌生的机器人交流。总之,「不要跟陌生人讲话」。

嘉敏:You think it’s gonna work?
你觉得这样有用吗?

KK:Yeah, Because your robots can easily infected with something. Taking orders or whatever.
是的,因为机器人很容易中病毒,然后接受其他人的命令,等等。

嘉敏:Is it overprotect?
这算是过度保护吗?

KK:There might be.
有可能。

嘉敏:大巍你解释一下,对,我翻一下网友的问题。

李大巍:凯文说人类呢,尤其是商业社会,大家都是经历过培训的,不要乱开垃圾邮件,不要乱和陌生人打交道,将来机器人很可能也要接受类似的培训。就像人一样,不用乱点没用的连接,不要乱开email,接受其他机器人给的东西,这个威胁不但对人,对机器人也是一样的。

嘉敏:将来,其实机器人的安全问题也会是一个很大的问题,包括怎么教机器人保护自己。这里面存不存在教机器人过度保护自己的问题,也有可能是有的。

嘉敏:Kevin, friends really care about you. They asked you to find a place to sit down. But that’s not possible. OK, there’s a question for you, what’s gonna be your next book?
Kevin,网友们很关心你。他们想让你坐下来。但旁边没什么坐的位置。现在有网友问了个问题,你的下一本书会写什么?

KK:I’m working on a book of photographs about the vanishing Asia, about the traditions that are disappearing, including those in China. The ceremonies, the festivals, the dresses, the rituals, they are all disappearing. I’m trying to document them before they disappear. That’s the immediate book that I am working on this year.
我目前正在做一本图册,讲述「消逝的亚洲」,呈现正在消失的亚洲传统,也包括中国的。仪式、节日、服饰、典礼,它们都在消失,我希望在它们彻底消失前将它们记录下来。我今年正在做的就是这件事。

嘉敏:Kevin说,他手头正在做的一本书,是关于正在消失的亚洲。他说很多亚洲传统的东西都在消失,包括仪式、类似于村落里的东西等。他觉得这些消失了很可惜,所以他正在做这样一本书。这应该是一本照片书,照片集应该叫做。

KK:After that, the book I’m working on right now is trying to do a scenario for the future that is comprehensive, crossing many disciplines and the history. The scenario is going to include what roads will be like in 2051, 2052 and 2053. It’s comprehensive in the sense that it’s on the rise, but there are already some predecessor inventions that are also around at the same time. Everybody has phone, cellphone, phones on the desks. Phones of different ages. Technology has a history, it’s not just new stuff, but is new and all.
之后我会试图描绘一幅全面的、跨学科、有历史感的未来图景,谈谈2051、2052、2053年的道路会是什么样子的之类的问题。之所以说它是全面的,在于它不仅会谈正在兴起的新事物,而是会新旧共存。每个人都有电话,不仅有手机,也有座机,各个时代的电话。科技是有历史的,不仅包括新事物,也包含旧事物。


嘉敏:OK, that’s kind of complicated, actually, I did not get all the points.
好吧,这个有点复杂,实际上我也没全听明白。

KK:It’s way of building a world. It’s called world building. It’s going to be a scenario, a picture of the future, but instead of having a world in 2050, but progressing in 2045, 2047, each year. It has a history.
这就是所谓的「世界观搭建」,不只是描述2050年的世界是什么样的,而是要谈2045年,2047年,逐年地去讲。这是一个有历史的世界。


嘉敏:OK, so, Kevin下一本书,他可能是在构想一本关于未来的书,但是这本书可能有一点点不太一样,就是他不仅仅只是说我们设想2050年会怎么样,他可能会在设想2049年、2047年48年,可能会有2051年会怎样,这样就会形成有历史、有现在、有未来的这样一个层级这样的架构。这是我的一个理解。

李大巍:Kevin, is this work related with Long Now Foundation?
凯文,这本书会和LN基金有合作吗?

KK:No, no. I’m going to research the long-term trends of food, sports, education and transportation. But I want integrate them together, to make a single world, and use them to make some predictions. I want to write some science fictions in that world. 
不是的。我会研究众多行业的长期趋势,包括食品、运动、教育、运输。我要把它们整合进一个完整的世界中,再用它们来进行预测。我还想在这个世界观的基础上创作科幻作品。

李大巍:我的理解是嘉敏刚说的,我们现在写未来的书大概都是一个趋势,一个方向,而且,比如说是谈AR,VR,都是分开的,但是Kevin这个对未来的书,很可能像是一个切片,他可能写2045年的AI,然后2046年是什么样的,2047年是什么样的,他还会把一些科幻小说的情况放在里面,从这本书的最后一章,比如2047年,这是一个很美丽的四明湖,余姚的四明湖。

KK:So I want to ask some questions.
现在我想问几个问题。

嘉敏:Kevin说他要问一些问题。

KK:When we talk about robots, I wonder if anybody who is listening has an experience with robots, remember, or what to share.
我们现在谈机器人。听众里有没有人真正体验过机器人呢?分享一下。

嘉敏:The real experience.
真实的经历。

嘉敏:Kevin的问题是说,听众朋友们,有没有人跟真正的机器人,这种真实的接触的经历,有想要分享一下的吗?

KK:Somebody writes this, and it’s curious to summarize.
谁来写一下,总结下来会很有趣。

嘉敏:对,就是Kevin很有兴趣看到大家来通过这个评论字幕,来说一说自己的经历,我们可以总结一下。

KK:What is the most memorable experience with the Roomba?
扫地机器人带给你最难忘的经历是什么?

嘉敏:这种扫地机器人给你留下的最深刻的印象是什么?有没有?有很多朋友都应该用过那种robot吧?那种扫地机器人。

嘉敏:大家的意见不太一样,有人说,so, they have different experiences with the sweeping robot. Some said that it is very efficient, but some said it doesn’t work at all. Yeah, it’s slow?

KK:Anybody that has an emotional relationship with Roomba and other robots. If we have strong feelings towards something, say the pet. We may love the pet, pig or bird. Is there anybody that can love a robot?
有人对机器人产生过感情吗?我们会对一些东西产生强烈的感情,比如宠物,我们可能会爱宠物,不管是小猪还是小鸟。但有人「爱」过机器人吗?

嘉敏:Kevin问有没有朋友对这种机器人产生过某种感情?就像是对宠物一样,无论是鸟也好,还是小猪也好,有没有人对机器人产生过感情?不管是什么样的感情。

敏:Someone says no, no, never.
有人说没有,从来都没有。

KK:I think one thing that surprises us that we may have emotions or love for robots. They will also love us back. It’s not difficult to program emotions into AI. I think right now this is a crazy idea that we love robots, and robots love us back. But it’s going to happen, and a lot, and…
现在要是说人对机器人有感情,或者「爱」机器人,而且机器人还会反过来「爱」人,人们大概会觉得很惊讶。实际上,将情绪加入人工智能程序并不困难。上面提到的现象必定会发生…

嘉敏:then they will get used to it.
之后大家就会习惯了。

KK:People will get used to it. Of course, we can love our pets, and our pets will show us love. Why we would think that a robot couldn’t do that?
人们也会习惯的。我们当然会爱自己的宠物,它们也会表现出来爱的样子。为什么机器人就不行呢?

嘉敏:That’s a good point. Kevin就说,其实对机器人或人工智能产生感情,并不是一件很疯狂的事,现在想可能很疯狂,但其实并不是不可能的事情,因为其实很容易就能在程序中植入类似于情绪、情感的代码或一种东西。所以他说,也许有一天,人们和机器之间会产生这种很强的情感。那么这种情况刚开始的时候,人们可能会很惊讶,会被吓到,但是很快就会觉得,OK,这种情况也很正常。因为你对宠物有感情,那为什么不能对有智能的机器,或机器人有感情呢?所以将来这个可能会很普遍。

李大巍:We have two answers, one is that a gentleman have affections with NANA, Microsoft chat bot, another gentleman replied: if mobile phones are robots, they have strong feelings with robots.
我们有两个答案,一个人说跟微软的聊天机器人NANA接触过,另一个说手机算不算机器人?

KK:SIRI is an AI. Your phone is a robot, and SIRI in it is a robot.
SIRI是一个AI。你的手机就是一个机器人,里面的SIRI也是。

嘉敏:正好有朋友问,手机是不是机器人?人工智能算不算?正好Kevin都谈到了,手机就是一个机器人,那么,手机里面的智能程序,比如苹果手机里的SIRI智能程序,那么这个也是机器人。其实对这种智能程序产生感情,我看有些朋友也在说是有感情的。

李大巍:Kevin, Jiamin,I have a good question, we just visited Wang Yangming’s old house this afternoon, and he was a great philosopher in China, what is your comment on him?and what is your feeling?
凯文,嘉敏,我有一个好问题,我们下午参观了王阳明故居,他是中国古代著名的哲学家,请问您对他的评论是?对他有什么感觉。

KK:I feel I should read some philosophy, but I don’t because it’s too late to devote. I don’t really know what his philosophy is.
我觉得自己应该读一点哲学,不过现在学起大概有点晚了。我确实不太了解王阳明的哲学。

嘉敏:So, the audience says (风大听不清), so they want to ask you that (风大听不清) this side. Ok.

嘉敏:因为有朋友说外面风太大,声音听不清,我们接受大家的建议,找一个屋里的地方。其实开始Kevin也是说找一个湖边漫步的地方,大家比较轻松,比较自如,跟朋友的互动,跟大家的互动也会比较多。但是影响到直播的效果,所以我们现在去屋里的地方。没关系,我觉得可以一直说。

李大巍:这么走反而没风了,这个太有意思了。

李大巍:Kevin, another question is about, we can talk about China innovative ability, creative ability, so, my point of view is China is far behind compareing with OECD countries, what do you think about China innovative ability.

李大巍:凯文,另一个问题是,我们可以聊聊中国创新能力,我的观点是中国在创新上落后于OECD国家,你怎么看?

KK:I am very impressed by how fast China is moving from a copy culture to an innovative culture. I think it will be much faster than Japan did. Japan also started from a copy culture to an innovation culture. Everything I have seen in China suggests that it is in the middle of transition. It might take a whole generation, what I mean by a generation is young people become old people and old people dying, before the transition is complete. So the main two things are still missing in the culture. One is the wide acceptance of failure, tolerate fast failures again and again, and take it as something positive instead of a disaster. Failure is something that hurts all the time, nobody wants failure, but actually it is necessary. The belief that failure is part of the progress and innovation is not in the culture. The second thing is the ability to question the authority, to question the assumptions, to question what is known. I think that would also take a whole generation for the transformation to complete. But the other thing about creative is working hard and diligently, I think China is already working on that. Chinese are working hard to encourage individuals to do their own things. I think a lot of things are already happening in China. I would say China is half way there. I would imagine another five or ten years would go even further.
中国正在快速从山寨文化走向创新文化,这给我留下了深刻印象。日本也是从仿制起家的,我想中国演进的速度会快得多。根据我在中国的见闻,我认为中国正在演进的中途。这个过程可能会需要一整代人的时间。我在这里说的「一代」是年轻人出生,变老直至死亡这么久。中国文化里还有两块缺失的元素。第一个是对失败的接受和宽容,尤其是快速的、反复的失败。中国人应该积极地看待失败,而不是单纯将其视为灾难。当然,失败会让人很受伤,没有人希望失败,但它是必不可少的。失败是进步和创新的一部分,中国文化中现在还没有这个信念。第二点就是质疑权威、假设、现有知识的能力。我认为这大概也需要一代人的时间。但是,在其他对创新很重要的方面上,比如努力勤奋,中国人已经做得很好了。中国正在鼓励人们自主创业。中国正在发生着很多变化。中国正在前进的半途,接下来五到十年会发生更大的变化。


嘉敏:那个,Kevin说其实这些年在中国,他很惊讶地看到中国很快就从复制,或者说山寨,很快地走上了真正创新的文化。但他说我们其实还是处在转变的过程中。而且这个转变需要整整一代人。他说的整整一代人不是说十年二十年,而是年轻人变老、死去,这叫一代人。那么这样一代人的时间来完成这个转换。他认为,在中国现在的文化里还有两样东西是最缺失的:一样就是说我们对失败的容忍。因为,尤其是对很快的这种失败的容忍。他觉得失败虽然是有很大的损害,但是没有失败,中国有句老话是「失败是成功之母」,没有失败,就没有成功。但是他觉得现在中国的文化里面对失败的容忍度是不够的。然后,第二个很重要的因素就是对权威的质疑和挑战。他认为在中国的文化里面这一点也比较缺失。所以他说这两点是比较关键的。至于其他的,比如说勤奋啊还有其他的,这些东西其实中国人都已经做得非常棒了。

李大巍:我补充一句,凯文认为中国发展风格和日本很像,从一个拷贝、复制其他国家的技术,而转型过来,但是中国的转型要快很多,比日本快很多,可能我们已经走在了创新国家的路上,再过五到十年就会有非常好的创新出来。

KK:So what do you think? What’s your answer to this question?
那么你是怎么想的,你会如何回答这个问题?

李大巍:So Kevin mentions about question of authorities, so I’ll give you a demo. I think innovation nation requires decades of free thoughts, environment, and debating fighting ideologies, so I’m thinking we are not half way, so probably there are... either we do not... seem... innovative path... OECD countries, or require much much longer time than what Kelly mentions.
凯文提到了权威的问题,我给你一个例子,我认为创新国家需要几十年的自由思想,自由环境,以及批判思维,所以我想我们不是在半途,我们可能跟OECD国家不一样,或许比凯利说的时间还要久。

李大巍:凯文·凯利说,中国人缺乏两个特定,第一个是容忍失败,第二个是质疑权威,我就质疑了他一下,中国的创新还有很长的路要走,绝对不是五到十年,一个创新的国家就要很多很多年的积累,一代人一代人的积累,关于启蒙、批判、独自思考,我个人的观察,觉得我们中国很可能走上和OECD国家不同的道路,可能远远超过五到十年。

嘉敏:So Kevin, this gonna be a tough question. What do you think of the one belt one road? That’s a question from audience.
Kevin,接下来的问题比较棘手。你是怎么看待「一带一路」的?这是我们网友提出来的问题。

KK:I am no expert. I only know what I read in the US newspapers. My understanding of it, that it is a way to extend, what China has been very well at yet, the build stuff. You cannot build too much more in China. It’s so built up. You can go around the world, there are many places that need building. So China can continue infrastructure built up, earn money, and hopefully that wealth could be used to study robot and other things. So that’s my understanding of it. It is a way of extending what it has already known how to do. Maybe it gives the time and money you need to do some new things, like robots and AI.
我不是这个问题的专家,我的信息来源只是美国报纸。在我看来,一带一路在努力扩展中国已经做得很优秀的一件事:建造施工。中国的建设已经很完善了,没有太大空间了。但世界上还有很多地方需要。中国可以通过在这些地方修建基础设施,在这个过程中赚取利润,然后可能还会用这些钱来研究机器人等新领域,它可能会给中国人足够的时间和金钱来发展新事物。
嘉敏中文:我简单翻译一下,Kevin说,中国在建造,在制造、建筑方面已经做得非常不错了。但是在中国已经都建得差不多了,也就是说饱和了,那么这些能力其实是需要对外输出的,那通过这种输出,中国可以得到更多的时间和资金,可以找到机会做更新的东西,比如机器人、人工智能。他说这个可能是一种通过自己现有的能力拓展新能力的方式。

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