False positive puzzle and Bates’ rule
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False positive puzzle and Bates’ rule

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If a test for a disease is 99% accurate, and your test is positive, the probability you actually have the disease is not 99%. The probability is determined by the false positive error, the false negative error and the possibility of the disease in the population. For example, the more rare the disease, the lower the probability that a positive result means you actually have it.

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